EUR/USD intraday analysis November 5th
This is courtesy of Iridium and you can visit his website at chifbaw.com:
“Regarding EUR/USD, here are my recommendations today:
– Best: Buy EUR/USD at 1.2740 (Fibo 61.8%) with both short term (1.28) and long term profits (1.335) in mind PROVIDED the Greek parliament approves budget.
– Medium: Short EUR/USD on rallies at 1.289/1.2915 with S/L 1.2955, target 1.2850, 1.2740.
– Very Risky: Buy EUR/USD at 1.2830 S/L 1.2790, target 1.2870-1.29.
Analysis: The risk off reaction of the markets to the positive NFP numbers on Friday signals that Romney is a much more desirable president than Obama for the markets. Also the relatively low level of involvement of the market participants suggests a likely volatility boost once the election is over. We therefore expect short term further sell off if Obama is elected and a rally if Romney becomes president. With that said, the market will probably stay quiet till Wednesday. EUR/USD remains ambiguous since it did not close below the 200-day MA. Despite the sell off of Friday, we expect a mild correction this morning towards 1.2870-1.29. However, further declines seem warranted. The main risk for EUR/USD is the Greek parliament vote today. A positive outcome would be mildly bullish, while a negative outcome would be extremely bearish. Therefore any trading today must done with this potentially very dangerous event in mind.
Good luck and be careful.