EUR/USD: I’m struggling to find reasons not to be bearish
- After the debacle with Cypriot bank accounts, I have even less confidence in the EZ to get things done right.
- Unemployment is a serious issue across the Zone and growth is non-existent.
- The US economy has been picking up in recent quarters but Fed QE policy is still a concern for USD bulls.
- The technical picture is telling me nothing, with range-trading imprinted across most time-frames.
- The crosses look mixed; EUR/AUD for one still looks technically bullish but EUR/GBP has turned soft. EUR/JPY has come a long way in a short time and the lack of bullish momentum in EUR/CHF is definitely a mystery.
Conclusion: I’d be waiting for exhaustive stop-driven spikes to sell into and it may well be that we are currently experiencing just such a spike (but a break above 1.3200 will undoubtedly set off more stops).