EUR/USD/Flows and Orders

EUR/USD: First reports of some selling interest

  • Interbank dealers report decent-sized offers starting at 1.3065 through 1.3080.
  1. Good morning Sean & all,

    My recommendation for today is to abstain this morning from trading. If someone has opened a position at 1.3040 based on my recommendation, I would close it. I have personally closed all my EURUSD longs and will be watching from sidelines.

    Analysis: We ended the week above 1.30, after a fibonacci retrace at 1.3018 provided solid resistance to the stop loss hunting. The asian session has provided some upside move, but there is clearly little bullish impetus this morning. The market might consider turning bearish this week since the spanish elections are now behind, and the so-much expected bailout request now must be made. The talk of last week has excited the market, but if this does not materialize now, there will be much more bitterness at the end. Flagellation is the only way the european drama can advance, and it seems this time is no exception. The only question is how fast this will happen. A move below 1.2990 would suggest the market has shrug off the official talk of last week, and is ready to start challenging Mr Rajoy. Such a move will provide a short opportunity with a likely retest of support trend line and 200DMA. For now, there is still a chance that we rally again towards 1.317. It seems abstention is the best move this morning, with eyes on spanish bond yields. If the yields fall below 5.3%, then we might rally back towards 1.317. If they go up, and the EURUSD falls below 1.2990 then we are in for a some bearishness.
    Good luck gents!

  2. Btw, one possible area of work this morning is EURJPY. It is now overbought, and any further rallies in EURUSD/USDJPY will offer a good short opportunity (short term) in EURJPY

  3. I welcome Sean!
    My opinion that euro in medium-term and long-term prospect looks better on purchase. Stops are lower 1.2980 make sense. The purpose while is pass and fixing of the price is higher 1.3188-91. On graphics month is available a triangle with the bottom border 1.2980, this triangle was punched in May down and now the price made return to it if the price manages to be fixed in it, then growth of euro can grow. In any case, while the price didn’t leave it down, a bull spirit and technically bulls in euro will try to hold the price in euro above 1.2980. Such opinion on EUR/USD.

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