EUR/USD/Flows and Orders

EUR/USD: A Tale of Two Central Banks

Just read a note from one of the big investment banks and they are advising their customers to avoid getting caught out trading mid-range whilst 2 big central banks are sitting either side.

They are looking at a very broad 1.2650/1.3250 range for the 6 to 8 weeks and although they don’t mention the CBs by name, I’m presuming it’s the SNB who is selling rallies and China who is buying dips.

  1. Good day Sean,

    Indeed it is an interesting situation. The Swiss must still have tons of these euros and the Chinese have rather deep pockets. So this can last a long time. But longer term, if the situation is really stabilized on the bond front, the upside will prevail. Imho if go above 1.3050, then 1.3170 will be reached very fast and probably will get to 1.33. So while we are below 1.30 I globally still favor being short.

    Note, how thoroughly we discussed the 1.2815 resistance level, and I decided not to enter long… and I was wrong! We got more than 60-70 pips you were looking for…

    I am still looking to short the EURUSD at the moment with target 1.275 where I will turn bull.

  2. Yes Iridium, I think this bank is probably right and if we concentrate on picking the correct entry levels for 70/100 pip moves then that’s the best way to trade this eur/usd. You picked an excellent short entry lvl on Friday which would have delivered 100 pips very easily and then tech support this am would have given up 70/80 as you say. Definitely a market for patient range traders.

  3. i thought i heard china was selling eurusd above 1.29000, which other bank is that one? must be BIS or something because i was told china was selling above 1.29000

  4. i only know for sure china was selling gbpusd, i think it would be odd for them to sell gbpusd and buy eurusd, right?

  5. Hi Maji, not BIS I think as they are very active both sides as are Russia and Middle East Sovs. China may have been selling cable 16260 but they bought very large some weeks ago 15750/15800 so maybe they are trading the ranges in major pairs. Definitely makes sense. I can’t think what other CB might be the buyer?

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