JPY crosses

EUR/JPY: Trimming open positions ahead of BOJ

We can expect the decision to be announced sometime after 12pm Tokyo time (edit: between 03:10 and 03:50 GMT according to Dr Rosie) but I don’t like having open positions heading into major risk events and prefer to exit the trade and re-enter once the dust has settled. Once again, you can follow these trades in the Members section and I soon hope to start tracking some aspiring strategists and you’ll be able to follow their calls as well.

  1. Sean Darlink – re: BOJ meeting timing thereof
    03:10GMT to 03:50GMT.

    The BoJ usually holds its 2-day monthly policy board meeting in the middle of the month.

    But in April and October, the BoJ holds another 1-day policy board meeting near the end of the month to review its semiannual economic outlook.

  2. Good morning Sean and all,

    Regarding EURUSD, my recommendation is to buy dips in between 1.2835 (200DMA) and 1.2815 (horizontal resistance) with SL below 1.28 and objectives 1.2850, 1.2890. Same as yesterday, and I still doubt that we get there today.

    Analysis: Yesterday we closed below the master trend line support from 1.20. However, this occured on low volume and therefore, it remains unclear if we did or not breakout this important support. This morning the market is slightly bearish, but seems ready to rebound. The decision of the BOJ could trigger some EUR buying, since EURJPY could be the best vehicle to profit from weakness in the yen. This would cause the EURUSD to go higher artificially. The market is now in a very tight range between 1.2880 and 1.2925. And most likely, moves outside of this range should give +20/30 pips above or below. This is a difficult market to trade since the US will be out again today…

    I might enter long this morning at 1.2850 if get there in the coming hour, for some scalping. One can also short EURJPY at 105 (!!!) for some short scalping if the marget gets over-excited by the BOJ easing and reaches this level within 1-2 hours from now.

    Good luck.

  3. By the way, I like Shirakawa trick: the market expects 10TY expansion, well, let’s give it 11TY so that all journalists say the BOJ eases more than expectations 😉

  4. Sean,

    I have a question about your risk management, this morning you have exited your EUR/JPY with the BOJ’s event and the next week we have RBA’s meeting, i guess you would stay with your position during this events, isn’t it ? What is the difference between this two events ?

  5. A trader’s head is a mixed up place 🙂 I see these two ideas as being different in that the EUR/JPY trade is 100% technical whereas the AUD idea is more fundamental ie I think the RBA might act in such a way to skew risk heavily in favour of shorts. That’s why I’m not only willing but planning to trade a short position through the RBA risk event. It looks like I did the wrong thing in cutting EURJPY but I still feel I did the correct thing.

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