JPY crosses

EUR/JPY making fresh session highs

EUR/JPY is trading above 109.80 and just like yesterday, it’s looking very strong headed into the European open in a few hours. I’m still happy to try and fade any sharp spikes higher but I will keep positions small and manageable until I sense a change in the wind direction. 110.50 or even 111.00 look possible even tonight but I’m going to pick a fight with a bull I think.

  1. Hahahah. how many times have we fought the JAPS this year. even benny did not help us. having said that I am not your side to fight the bulls. way way way overbought

  2. Probably won’t see past 111 by the end of this week and I think we will see a pullback after the Japanese election, but not until 112.

  3. Sean, many USD & JPY based seems to be pretty overbought yet prices screaming higher, looks like this weekend will be risk on perhaps monday we’ll see large dips? market seems to be overrated about LDP going to win majority seats in lower house

  4. I don’t think europe will take it to 110.50. I think it will reverse a bit after the tokyo session is over. this is crazy intervention but.

  5. Hi Sean,

    Do you think today’s Yen decline has more to do with perhaps the stubbornness of Yen bulls leveraged accounts getting out of positions on margin calls, which perhaps creates chain effect? Is this latest USDJPY rally having real buyers behind or mere speculation, stops hunted and margin calls…

  6. look imo if the Yen strengthens post elections, the new PM will Jawbone/act till it moves higher, thats the assumption i will take going forward

  7. Hi Ivan, certainly plenty of Japanese retail investment funds piling into JPY crosses in anticipation of post-election easing measures and I think this, allied with HFs and CTAs adding to existing longs is the main story. I’m sure there will be occasional stop-runs in both directions but personally I haven’t heard of any significant Yen long positions

  8. I’ve seen it happen so many times Dok, mkt gets all excited about something and then realises that its not going to happen. Vertical up and then vertical down moves

  9. So… do you think we will see an ultra-dovish BoJ in 2013? Will Abe’s regime have enough support to pass bill to kind of force the BoJ to print aggressively till inflation targets met? Hopefully the Yen doesnt disappoint this time and rather than a round trip back sub 80s gives us a more consistent trend for 2013, FX badly needs it…

  10. I think I’ve heard this same story many times over the last 15 years Ivan, but ultimately you have politicians on one hand saying what they need to in order to get votes but there is then a big difference with what in reality can get done. BOJ stays independent is bottom line

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