FXWW News/JPY crosses/Trade Ideas

EUR/JPY: Look to book intraday profits near 129.00

I’m guessing that there will be stops below 97.50 in USD/JPY and if they go off then EUR/JPY will probably trade down towards 129.00. I’m running shorts from this morning at 130.90 and will be more than happy to pick up a 190 pip pay day.

  1. Dear Sean,

    I am in the opinion that the macro-trend (5 years) of the European currencies is strengthened by the improvement of their economic performance and by opposite the macro-trend of the Asian currencies is weakened by the declining of their economic performance. Accordingly, in long-term, the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD will move to upward direction.

    Based on that assumption, I decided to long EUR/JPY at 129.90 with stop loss 125.00 to target 165.00-169.00. The target however will be traded in multiple entries and exits along the way to 165.00-169.00.

    I prefer to target medium term due to the difficulty in forecasting of short-term which is highly influenced by news and rumors

    Do you think this make sense by your analytical model?.

  2. Hi Johanes, I do love these big calls but what I will say is that your stop-loss might a bit too tight for such a macro strategy? (I will also say that I much prefer GBP/JPY to EUR/JPY in long term picture). I really don’t know enough about EZ Vs Japanese fundamentals but yes I could easily see EUR/JPY 150+ in coming years. But entry and timing is always so critical and one bad news event could stop you out. Prefer to buy small increments just in case of spikes lower? Personally I expect a min retracement to 11870 be4 further gains (https://www.tradingview.com/x/CFlIbAKm/) but I’ve been wrong before

  3. Hi Sean,

    Thank you.

    I expect and predict the quarterly band of the EUR/JPY to align to upward in one to two days to the level of 126.00-127.00. It seems that the quarterly band for USD/JPY already settled at 95.50 and EUR/USD consistently to upward.

    I agree with you that the stop loss 125.00 seems to be too tight. The spike always the danger. I anticipate this by hedging if the current level to be broken. But, once the EUR/JPY quarterly band aligned to upward, it seems the stop loss will be strong to hold for quarter.

    The global-macro trend is indicating that the long-term investors has been reducing and liquidating their investments from AUD and NZD currencies and their denominated debt securities and shifted to EUR and GBP, incl. USD and CAD. If I am correct, both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY will dominate the movements in the coming months, quarters and years.

  4. Hi Sean,

    The EUR/JPY pressured down to 126.18 by this morning but at the same time the quarterly time series band adjusted to 126.00. Thus the stop loss 125.00 could be at risk by spike.

    USD/JPY was pressured down and seems to remains under pressure to 93.00 and at the same time the EUR/USD moved to upward at slower.

    I may hedge my position to avoid possible lost.

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