JPY crosses/Trade Ideas

EUR/JPY: Adding to shorts though it’s looking riskier now

My small sell order at 111.50 was triggered and I’m still expecting (hoping) a top to form somewhere very close to current levels. Risk is on in expectation of a fiscal cliff deal getting done very soon and we contrarians need to be careful else we might get blown away. I’ll stick with the strategy for another while and see what happens around 112.00/25,

  1. Not firm at moment Lam-Son, but I think if it maintains a foothold on 112 handle then I will start looking to get out. I remember we looked at CHF/JPY when it was 89 and it sorta made sense to sell there but we held off due to strong up-trend. Now its another 5% higher almost!

  2. Just a thought Sean. I was looking at your open trades in the members section and I see that lot has being lost in this eur/jpy. I will tell you my psychology I don’t trade a pair for quite a while if it has given me negative returns. I have left the aussie 1 month back and will not trade it ever again. same with JPY

  3. I have’nt lost a ‘lot’ not yet at least Nachiket 🙂 I’ve also had a sizeable EUR/USD long position running for about 300 pips so overall I’m doing ok. The Yen has been very good to me over the years, I was short from 114 USD/JPY a few years back and was short again when it started building below 100 so I’m comfortable being long Yen. I may lose a bit on this one but I never allow myself to lose large

  4. was it intended to me, jordan? if it was I don’t know why you said I will never trade forex again bcoz I trade forex everyday

  5. The Yen sell off is way overdone at this point. Having some patience and a manageable position will hopefully pay off, besides its more fun being a contrarian trader!

  6. Agree Doc, I simply don’t have the psychological make-up to be a good sheep (I mean trend follower) 🙂 Of course we get burnt plenty of times but when it turns, the profits are always quick and big! Maybe that should be the name of our contrarian club, “The Quick and the Big” 🙂

  7. The ‘Quick and Big’ club it is. I am inaugarating the club at my desk with a large whiskey in my hand, its my last day for the holidays. All the best Sean for Christmas and New Year.

  8. Agree Papillon, if it starts trading above 11220ish then I think its too risky to stay short and best to get out and look again. But, if USD/JPY stays below 8440 and eur/usd starts looking toppy on 15 min or 30 min charts, then it might be worth selling a bit more, with tight trailing stop?? Watch for momentum to start increasing and then maybe jump on?? If it starts falling, don’t put bids in as I think it could get nasty below 10980ish

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