EUR/GBP: Much more likely to fall in medium/long term
Not that I’m recommending that anyone take a position in this ‘tortoise’ of a pair, but if you do see any technical set-ups which favour the bearish side then I think its worth consideration.
One professional trader gave me a scenario recently which could easily come to pass. The ECB will take over the stress testing of regional European banks early in 2014. He expects many banks to not only fail these tests but also fail completely.
This will lead to a massive move of real money out of Europe and into the GBP and CHF in particular. He sees EUR/GBP below .7500 by early next year and more controversially, he sees EUR/CHF back at 1.10.