EUR/CHF: Look to book interim profits near 1.2125

Big move higher in EUR/CHF after the SNB announced the move to negative rates. Normally one would expect that this is worth 200+ pips in EUR/CHF but it’s Christmas and logic goes out the window. There are 100’s of billions worth of overseas accounts in Switzerland and the question of course is whether this money will be influenced to leave with the introduction of negative rates?

I’d suggest No.

The reason that money gravitates towards “Die Schweiz” is usually that it wants to remain anonymous, not that it’s chasing yield. So negative rates won’t have a major impact in my view.

There are plenty of speculative longs built near 1.2015; I’d be looking for a handy pre-Christmas 100-pip present and then re-load on dips.