AUD,NZD/EUR/USD/Technical Analysis

EUR/AUD technicals: Favour deeper retracement towards 1.2350

      There have been a lot of big players streaming into this pair over the last few weeks, hoping for a massive move higher. That leaves it susceptible to profit-taking and with a possible top now in place above 1.2800, we could see some deeper retracements. The rise from 1.1600 was very steep and the retracement could be similarly so, with the 38.2% target at 1.2360.

  1. Been scalping AUD/JPY for a week now. 10/20 pips every few days. We, I think are at an important level of 79.90. We closed below that at the end of NY session. Draw a fibo from 3/19 to the low of 6/1 of this year. we are at the 38.2 level. That area has been “important support” imo. What do you think?

  2. I think we need a clear break of 79.30 which would be 60 pips from the 79.90 area but that has been a good area of apparent bids. Maybe we could have had a false break of 79.90 today. we are flirting with that level now.

  3. Sean,

    two things I noted. the fall from 1.2830 to 1.2590 took just 2 days. so its quite sharp. in this entire fall aussie has not once tested 1.0250. so technically it is still weak.Its just that euro is more weaker. a point will come where euro fall might just get arrested for time being. so I am doing a contrarian buying at 1.2693

  4. EURAUD is very interesting indeed!
    Monthly view: the EURAUD could easily above 1.30, even 1.50!.
    Weekly view: the EURAUD is very overbought (after being extremely oversold) and should correct downwards.
    Daily view: At 1.2550 (horizontal resistance), the EURAUD should be able to rebound. It has already shrugged off enough of its advance to be able to restart its upward trend.
    4H: the EURAUD is well oversold and should rebound!

    Now to make the link with EURUSD and AUDJPY and AUDUSD: the EURUSD will soon hit an area of potential very strong rebound. On the other hand, the AUDUSD and most importantly AUDJPY are both on the edge of the precipice based on a major slowdown in the chinese housing market.

    So, we just need a kicker to start the party. That what it seems. Also I should mention that the employment numbers that are coming might be a positive surprise because unemployment is often a lagging indicator of the economy…So it’s tricky! And EURAUD is very very excessive in its movements…

  5. The AUD/JPY surely is tricky, as I found to my cost earlier in the week, but I do think we will get a bearish break sooner rather than later and your ‘precipice’ description is apt

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