AUD,NZD/EUR crosses/FXWW News/GBP crosses/Technical Analysis/Trade Ideas

EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD set to reverse?

Two separate technicians, who are usually very insightful, are telling me that these two crosses are heavily overbought on a short-to-medium time-frame. Of course they have a captive audience knowing that I’m long AUD/USD!

Looking at EUR/AUD, there is a top in place at 1.4450/75 but it’s Friday and we are not that far away from there. I don’t like the idea of selling here at 1.4375; best to wait and see if we get another topside test to take out likely stops above 1.4480 and then sell into that spike near 1.4500/25?

I’d take a similar approach to GBP/AUD; resistance levels are further away there at 1.6900 making sales at present levels near 1.6700 much less attractive. Wait for any stop-loss driven spikes up through resistance levels and sell into that for a move back below 1.65.

 

  1. One point AUD traders we should keep in mind is that Aussie had always been dumped for a few times in a row in late Friday, i.e. Friday night Sydney time. It looked brilliant on Thursday or so but later plummeted just before weekend. Don’t know the reason but I am rather careful.

  2. Lam-Son,
    I reckon that sort of price action usually indicates a desire to have revals for open positions at more acceptable levels. In other words it is consistent with the view the market is very short AUD. The rapid turnaround on Monday mornings following the ‘ramp’ is telling. At some point the position will be cleared and such manipulations will cease.
    Sean,
    the chart you posted is of EURUSD!

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