I’m really not sure what to make of the EUR/USD overall, and this is the one pair which is unsettling my overall view of the market. Prime broker reports suggest that overall EUR positioning is relatively neutral, with bigger players sitting on long EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD positions but the overall market tending to be short EUR/USD.
This had me thinking that EUR/USD would tend to trade sideways in a broad 1.28/1.35 sideways range whilst the crosses would readjust lower though higher AUD/USD, lower USD/JPY etc. But, if the market were to really get bearish EUR it still has plenty of scope to build positions and this for me is the big unknown factor.