EUR: Factors affecting and general sentiment overview
- Asian central banks have been buying EUR/USD firstly below 1.2900 and more recently near 1.2950. This is likely some diversification out of USD bought as part of intervention in USD/AXY, most notably USD/SGD, USD/HKD and USD/KRW:
- Macro technical picture could be turning bullish after the 50-day MA crossed the 200-day MA:
- General sentiment remains bearish against the backdrop of Greek/Troika negotiations and Spanish economic woes:
- Market positioning is short, but not at critical levels: In EUR/USD for instance, the retail market is roughly 55:45 short:long whilst the professional market was slightly more exposed but has started to cover again in recent sessions (very approximate guesstimate of 60:40 short:long):
- Crosses are mixed; EUR/CHF is starting to look heavy again, EUR/GBP gave up recent gains too easily; but both EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD look well supported in the short-term.
I remain cautiously bullish EUR in the short-term but with a mixed bag of ingredients, finding the correct entry level is vital.