EUR crosses/EUR/USD

EUR: Factors affecting and general sentiment overview

  • Asian central banks have been buying EUR/USD firstly below 1.2900 and more recently near 1.2950. This is likely some diversification out of USD bought as part of intervention in USD/AXY, most notably USD/SGD, USD/HKD and USD/KRW:
  • Macro technical picture could be turning bullish after the 50-day MA crossed the 200-day MA:
  • General sentiment remains bearish against the backdrop of Greek/Troika negotiations and Spanish economic woes:
  • Market positioning is short, but not at critical levels: In EUR/USD for instance, the retail market is roughly 55:45 short:long whilst the professional market was slightly more exposed but has started to cover again in recent sessions (very approximate guesstimate of 60:40 short:long):
  • Crosses are mixed; EUR/CHF is starting to look heavy again, EUR/GBP gave up recent gains too easily; but both EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD look well supported in the short-term. 
I remain cautiously bullish EUR in the short-term but with a mixed bag of ingredients, finding the correct entry level is vital. 
  1. It’s a good abstract mainly the last sentence “finding the correct entry level is vital”. i have trouble with that 😉

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