Flows and Orders/FXWW News

Early European chat-room activity

 

Sep 6

Milan Cutkovic FXWW Pty Ltd

Sep 6

John Webb Market News

3:41:35 pmI am getting confirmation of decent demand interest around $1.3100 linked to optionality…could be Asian demand but can’t get PBOC link confirmed…option interest at $1.3100 rolls off Weds Sep11

Sep 6

Milan Cutkovic FXWW Pty Ltd

4:39:11 pmhearing Sovereign bids 3110 EUR/USD…could be linked to that barrier if China-rumor is true

4:39:47 pmUniCredit:

4:39:49 pmNikkei 225 Index goes from positive to negative and some guys in the streets are pinning this story that Japan will not get the vote to host 2020 Olympics due to fears Japan might be experiencing elevated levels of radiation as a result of a 2011 nuclear disaster. I am clueless and am also told that shares property and construction related companies have rallied past 3 weeks and this could be some profit taking.

As result of this Nikkei, UsdJpy got pulled below 100 and then triggered very short term stops below 99.90. Dollar continued to decline, orderly manner, to 99.695; we then heard stop sell orders from CTA names are gathered at 99.50 and thereafter. I was told that one lifer sold some 400mio UsdJpy above 100.15.

4:40:00 pmI am told of chunky EurUsd bids surrounding 1.3100 linked to options, and these expire Wed Sept 11. Some bids are scattered from 1.3080 to 1.3050 from corporate accounts; meanwhile real money offers Euro at 1.3250. Mostly stop buy orders are found above 1.3255.

Xinhua news said President Xi Jinping reiterated that China will strive to deepen interest rate and exchange rate reforms. President Xi also said China is willing to slow down economic growth for reforms. This did not dent the Aud, market stayed firmed above 0.9118 and later climbed to 0.9144. Some mild stops are reported above 0.9155.

The theme for Asia is still pretty much the same. Currency pairs from South faces outflows while North witnessed inflows. As such UsdMyr, UsdIdr and UsdThb stayed firm – UsdKrw and UsdCnh touch lower opening levels.

4:40:02 pm——————-

4:41:05 pmMORGAN STANLEY:

4:41:09 pmAs an eventful week draws to a close, the focus turns to today’s NFP report with the market looking for a solid number of +180k (MS +190k vs prev +162k) to reinforce the case for Fed to scale back the $85b per month asset purchase. The dollar index has had a good run this week with a test of the 50% fib resistance at 82.75 the next target. Treasury yields are also higher with the 10yr straddling 3.00%, while gold has dropped back to 1370 area, just above the 100dma.

4:41:14 pmFX wise, Usd/Jpy is trading lower after running into hefty offers at 100.15-20 which coincides with the 76.4% fib of the July-Aug slide. Eur/Usd meanwhile is consolidating in a 20 pt range around 1.3130 following yesterday’s 100 pt fall after ECB yesterday indicated that interest rate risk is to the downside. The 100 & 200 dma’s at 1.3139 & 1.3148 will provide near term resistance while a break of 1.31 (50% fib of the 1.2755 July lows/1.3452 Aug highs) could well see Eur/Usd slip back a further 80-100 pts. If 1.30 was to be taken out then it’s into the 1.27’s. Good luck

4:41:17 pm————————-

4:44:39 pmImporter bids in dollar/yen still resting at 99.20…weak stops thru 99.50

4:55:00 pmKiwi approaching .7930 offers, more at .7950

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