CHF/JPY: Looking for a selling opportunity
I think we are at the beginning of a period of major moves in the FX crosses that began with a significant weakening of the Yen and is now beginning its next phase which is a strengthening of the EUR against other European majors.
The Yen weakening has all been caused by verbal intervention, with no actual notable policy changes yet taking place. Even if and when they do occur, it may be a matter of sell-the-rumour-buy-the-fact. So we may see EUR/JPY consolidate or even retrace a little whilst the EUR makes gains against other currencies like the CHF.
I’m building a short CHF/JPY position roughly between 96.75 and 97.75. I will re-assess on a clean break above 98.25.