Category in USD/JPY

USD/JPY: Trend-line support looming near 98.20

We have a thrice tested trend-line coming in near 98.20 (see chart); Short-term sentiment is bearish with market turning against the USD but also unexpectedly risk-averse post FOMC; Market reports suggest that the big macro funds remain quite long of USD/JPY. If you want to be long USD, this pair seems like the obvious choice

Market continues in choppy sideways consolidation

EUR/JPY: M&A chatter gave some support to the cross today and short-term support at 133.00 remains untested; EUR dipped slightly after the IFO came in at 107.7, pretty close to expectations; AUD has been a tiny bit soft all day in the face of softer equity markets but still remains inside recent ranges against all

JPY outlook: Selling short-term rallies in Yen crosses is preferred strategy

AUD/JPY looks to be in retracement mode and we could see a deeper dip towards 91.40 (see chart); EUR/JPY also looks susceptible to a deeper retracement towards 131.50 or even 130.50 (see chart); Positioning is the main factor for me in USD/JPY and with the market sitting long and momentum waning, I see a danger

AUD/NZD: Stops targeted below 1.1200 in early trade

The EUR is slightly higher across the board after Angela Merkel won the German election, although the prospect of a coalition of sorts might temper bullish enthusiasm. Cable is presently unchanged from it’s Friday close, USD/JPY is a slightly lower at 99.10, and AUD/NZD found some weak unprotected stops below 1.1200 and took them out.

Lack of bounce in USD will be worrying dollar bulls

We saw a somewhat ‘silly’ and overdone sell-off in the USD earlier this morning on the back of news that Larry Summers would not be seeking the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve. Stops were done across the board, especially in pairs like USD/JPY and AUD/USD, but the lack of a decent retracement will be worrying

Taper or not, I’m not expecting a large USD rally

Economics and fundamentals aside, and purely looking at price action in the majors over the last few months, I am struggling to visualise a significantly higher USD like some have been forecasting post-Taper. This whole tapering saga has been well documented and heavily traded over the last few months and whether the Fed has already

Still prefer to stick with bearish USD play

Some of the levels are getting a bit trickier for instance in USD/JPY and AUD/USD, where it’s hard to justify being short USD at current levels. But pairs like cable are pretty crystal clear in my biased view, and recent price action has given me no reason to change my view. USD/JPY; market is very