Posted on - August 28, 2014 7:28 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The USD bears will need a bit more evidence before getting overly excited but the recent price action in AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD certainly suggests that the greenback will struggle on these fronts. We often get impulsive market moves in September when the traditional holiday season has ended, and I’m definitely still of the opinion […]
Posted on - August 25, 2014 7:19 am (Australia/Sydney) |
USD/JPY gapped higher on the Asian open, touching 104.40 in early interbank trade, after dovish comments from BOJ Chief Kuroda at the Jackson Hole symposium. He said that the BOJ may have to continue with aggressively dovish policy for some time to come. The USD has also made strong gains against the EUR this morning, […]
Posted on - August 3, 2014 8:26 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I had a sell order in USD/CAD on Friday, looks like it missed by 2 pips. I’m never sure how to react to such things I’m not 100% on the levels, it’s not called the Loonie for nothing, but I’m very comfortable for now selling into this rally; NZD/USD based nicely near the 200-dma at […]
Posted on - July 31, 2014 9:15 am (Australia/Sydney) |
USD/JPY has over-extended on the topside and recent history would suggest that range trading is still the obvious way to play this pair. The market was surprised by extreme end-of-month demand out of Japan but we should see things settle back again into the usual range-trading routine for the month of August. Maybe 102/104 or […]
Posted on - July 23, 2014 8:34 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Yen crosses still look liable to deeper falls in my view, led by EUR/JPY but with others like NZD/JPY also looking fragile after massive up-moves. The big level to watch today in EUR/JPY is 136.20. Option-protection and semi-official bids near 101.00 have been very strong indeed but the stops below 100.70 are reportedly massive as […]
Posted on - July 9, 2014 7:08 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Larger positions will tend to get increasingly nervous the longer a currency pair trades in a sideways formation; Plenty of large JPY-short positions have been built up over the last 18 months, particularly from Japanese investors; USD/JPY hasn’t risen in line with global equity markets; Technically, a break below 100.70 would suggest that the holding […]
Posted on - July 8, 2014 5:26 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I quite like the risk-reward in selling near 102.15/20 with stops above 102.90, targeting a move lower to test important technical support at 100.70.
Posted on - June 13, 2014 3:01 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
The BOJ policy statement shows that they will continue along the same policy path for the foreseeable future, making the Yen an obvious choice as a funding currency for carry trade players. Whether to choose the JPY, EUR or USD as a funding currency is now really a matter of personal choice. GBP/JPY is starting to […]
Posted on - June 5, 2014 7:32 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I read a research piece from BofAML yesterday which showed how USD/JPY has rallied in the days before recent NFP releases, has then had a spike higher on the good numbers, but quickly fell as longs scurried to book some profits. That is exactly how this current USD/JPY market also ‘smells’.
Posted on - June 4, 2014 9:26 am (Australia/Sydney) |
It’s getting increasingly hard for professional traders to generate any returns in these markets and it’s no surprise to see hedge funds clambering once more onto their favoured USD/JPY long trade in the hope of a developing trend. The clever ones bought in around 101.00 when the stops were being triggered and the Japanese semi-official […]
Posted on - June 4, 2014 6:55 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Another very quiet 24 hours in the FX market and all of the major pairs seem to be trading exactly where they were at the beginning of the trading week. The AUD has been unable to move despite retail sales data and the RBA, so we shouldn’t hold out too much hope that the GDP […]
Posted on - June 3, 2014 8:29 am (Australia/Sydney) |
There were offers of up to $1 billion at regular intervals on the interbank platforms starting at 102.25; The fact that these offers were chewed up shows how strongly ‘bid’ the market was; More large sell orders are reported at 102.50, 60 and 65.
Posted on - May 30, 2014 6:57 am (Australia/Sydney) |
As I said earlier in the week, the USD looks set to make further gains against the big European currencies and these trades are starting to develop nicely. Cable was the first mover and I’d expect any rallies now back towards 1.6775 to run into plenty of grateful sellers. I don’t expect any major collapse, […]
Posted on - May 21, 2014 3:06 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
USD/JPY reacted surprisingly little to the BOJ policy announcement. There had been some small expectation that the inflation target might be softened but we saw no sign of this. Perhaps Kuroda-san might say something during his press conference in 30 minutes? Plenty of big orders still being reported with semi-state and Sovereign types on the […]
Posted on - May 14, 2014 8:27 am (Australia/Sydney) |
It’s not so much the size of the positions, but the proximity of the stops which are the main worry here. In tighter markets, traders tend to run bigger positions with tighter stops, so that when the break happens it can be quite sharp and nasty. My research suggests that both retail and professional traders […]
Posted on - May 9, 2014 10:54 am (Australia/Sydney) |
All those hoping for some volatility in USD/JPY may be disappointed again. I’m hearing reports of very solid bids towards 101.25 which will prove difficult to budge. Sellers are lined up near 102.00 so it looks like being another tight-range day.
Posted on - May 8, 2014 11:54 am (Australia/Sydney) |
This current level provided solid technical support on the way down, in the form of a long-term trend-line. We can expect nervous longs who bought here on the way down to now exit the market as their levels didn’t hold.
Posted on - May 7, 2014 8:48 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The cases for being short USD and/or JPY are too strong and too similar in my opinion so I’m avoiding this pair. The break below the trend-line support at 101.90 is certainly a bearish technical event but with the strong up-trend in place, it’s probably just a flattening out of the uptrend. We could easily […]