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USD/JPY: Looking to build medium-term shorts into 50% retracement level at 111.65

Posted on - October 31, 2014 5:13 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 4 Comments
The market was certainly taken by surprise by the BOJ’s additional easing but a closer look at the fine print may suggest that this is not such a big deal (robbing Peter to pay Paul so to speak). I will try fading the rally into the medium-term technical resistance level at 111.65 (50% 147.50/75.50). This […]

USD/JPY: Risk-reward favours long-term top-pickers

Posted on - October 27, 2014 7:42 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Picking levels in USD/JPY is will nigh impossible and it really is a matter of watching the market very closely for signs of accelerations and turns. I still cannot get away from the view that the big bull move from sub-80 on the back of the BOJ is running out of steam. That doesn’t mean […]

USD/JPY: Positional liquidation the main driver

Posted on - October 8, 2014 7:41 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
From the FXWW chatroom: I’m continuing to hear reports of hedge funds having to return money to Russian investors due to worldwide financial sanctions. This is leading to positional liquidation of longer term trades in the FX market, like everyone’s favourite USD/JPY trade, and in FI as well.

USD/JPY: Risk-off Friday, shorts preferred

Posted on - October 3, 2014 7:03 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There will be a lot of long positions in the market who are feeling very unsure right now. They got the move to 110.00 as they had hoped but the sharpness of the turnaround will be casting some doubt. The break below 108.60 will have convinced many bulls to book profits, so I’d expect 108.60/80 […]

JPY crosses: Profit taking and trailing stops

Posted on - October 2, 2014 6:58 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The professional market has been short JPY across the board and we saw some hefty profit taking emerge yesterday after the over-stretch to take out 110.00 USD/JPY barriers couldn’t be maintained. Other pairs like GBP/JPY broke out of holding patterns and triggered heavy trailing stops. In the shorter-term, I prefer selling any 50/60 pip rallies […]

USD/JPY barriers: One down one to go

Posted on - October 1, 2014 8:41 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
A large barrier at 109.75 has been knocked out so we can turn our attention to the next one at 110.00. This one will be even bigger I hear, but it seems inevitable that it too will be knocked out, maybe not on the first attempt though? Cheap trade of the day; sell at 109.95 […]

USD/JPY: Market still eyeing big barriers ahead of 110.00

Posted on - September 30, 2014 6:49 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There were plenty of reports in the FXWW chatroom yesterday of very large offers at 109.74/75, protecting an option play at 109.75 (the market needs to trade through the exact level in order to trigger the pay-out). There will be another possibly even bigger barrier at 110.00. USD sentiment remains buoyant and further attempts to […]

USD/JPY: Optionality, trailing stops and risk-off Friday

Posted on - September 26, 2014 8:08 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
Another failure to test optionality at 109.50 will have longs questioning their resolve. A quick look at the 4-hr chart shows exactly where the trailing stops will be, namely below 108.25. It is risk-off Friday, so we may see some of this week’s positions taken off?

USD/JPY: Favour playing 107.50/110.00 range

Posted on - September 23, 2014 8:55 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The entire world is bullish USD/JPY it seems and many are positioned accordingly. Sentiment will remain bullish whilst the respective central bank policies diverge but with positioning already at extreme levels, pull-backs are inevitable. We are currently experiencing a modest one, after 109.50 was rejected and ex-BOJ Iwata comments spooked some longs. 110.00 is the […]

JPY crosses open slightly higher after G20 weekend

Posted on - September 22, 2014 7:02 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The lack of any currency-related comment from the G20 weekend will be seen by the market as being moderately JPY negative. The global economy has other things on its mind apart from Japanese monetary policy. The JPY crosses are slightly higher compared to the NY close from Friday, but movements are very modest in the […]

USD/JPY: Plenty of headwinds ahead of 109.00

Posted on - September 19, 2014 6:34 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Very large offers were spotted overnight on interbank platforms on the approach to 109.00, confirming that there will be significant defence of barrier options at that level. Bids are likely to be pretty solid now at 108.10/20. It is risk-off Friday, so we may get some position reduction ahead of the weekend. Perhaps some consolidative […]

USD: Retracement or reversal- latter I think

Posted on - August 28, 2014 7:28 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
The USD bears will need a bit more evidence before getting overly excited but the recent price action in AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD certainly suggests that the greenback will struggle on these fronts. We often get impulsive market moves in September when the traditional holiday season has ended, and I’m definitely still of the opinion […]

Kuroda comments ensure USD/JPY opens higher

Posted on - August 25, 2014 7:19 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
USD/JPY gapped higher on the Asian open, touching 104.40 in early interbank trade, after dovish comments from BOJ Chief Kuroda at the Jackson Hole symposium. He said that the BOJ may have to continue with aggressively dovish policy for some time to come. The USD has also made strong gains against the EUR this morning, […]

Buy NZD/USD dips, sell USD/CAD rallies, too-hard USD/JPY

Posted on - August 3, 2014 8:26 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I had a sell order in USD/CAD on Friday, looks like it missed by 2 pips. I’m never sure how to react to such things I’m not 100% on the levels, it’s not called the Loonie for nothing, but I’m very comfortable for now selling into this rally; NZD/USD based nicely near the 200-dma at […]

USD/JPY: Still think it’s a matter of picking the range

Posted on - July 31, 2014 9:15 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
USD/JPY has over-extended on the topside and recent history would suggest that range trading is still the obvious way to play this pair. The market was surprised by extreme end-of-month demand out of Japan but we should see things settle back again into the usual range-trading routine for the month of August. Maybe 102/104 or […]

USD/JPY: Definitely prefer the sell-rally play in short-term

Posted on - July 23, 2014 8:34 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
Yen crosses still look liable to deeper falls in my view, led by EUR/JPY but with others like NZD/JPY also looking fragile after massive up-moves. The big level to watch today in EUR/JPY is 136.20. Option-protection and semi-official bids near 101.00 have been very strong indeed but the stops below 100.70 are reportedly massive as […]

USD/JPY looking most likely of majors to make big move

Posted on - July 9, 2014 7:08 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Larger positions will tend to get increasingly nervous the longer a currency pair trades in a sideways formation; Plenty of large JPY-short positions have been built up over the last 18 months, particularly from Japanese investors; USD/JPY hasn’t risen in line with global equity markets; Technically, a break below 100.70 would suggest that the holding […]

USD/JPY: Favour selling intraday rallies to 102.15/20

Posted on - July 8, 2014 5:26 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
 I quite like the risk-reward in selling near 102.15/20 with stops above 102.90, targeting a move lower to test important technical support at 100.70.
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