I’m still long AUD/USD after buying the ‘dip’ at .7670 yesterday. I’m still comfortable with the position but will try and improve my average by hopefully picking the intraday ranges correctly. Interestingly Morgan Stanley have put out a very bearish strategy on the AUD/USD (“MS looking at short AUD/USD at .7670 on PULSE, sl .7750…target
The precious metals, the JPY and the GBP have been the main sufferers at the hands of a bouncing USD with the CAD and NZD not far behind. The EUR and AUD remain strong on the crosses but are also losing a bit of ground against the greenback. The prospect of a Trump presidency is looking
There has been a perception in the Asian market for decades that the big Japanese corporates somehow had the inside rub on major policy shifts by the BoJ. The idea being that hedging amounts tended to increase or decrease significantly in the lead up to major meetings. Next week’s meeting is looming as a major
The FOMC statement was more dovish than expected and while the bearish USD trend looks to be stalling against the GBP and the NZD, other major pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/USD remain in sideways consolidation. EUR/USD would need to break above 1.1550 and USD/JPY below 116.00 before the USD bulls will start getting really worried.
USD/JPY has been stuck in a 116/121 range since early December and it looks likely to stay in this range for some time to come. There are conflicting positional forces at play, with USD/JPY players still very bullish and long but the EUR/JPY speculative market seems to be quite short and prone to short-squeezes; hence the
USD/JPY has broken below its previous consolidation channel between 117.20/119.00 trading thus far to lows below
Don’t confuse liquidity gaps with level of turnover. We have had a few days last week where hourly turnover in the EUR was at record levels and these levels are only going to increase. When conditions are fine, massive turnover will continue. What’s of more interest to me is what happens when conditions aren’t fine.
I’ve been approaching USD/JPY with a swing trading mentality and a mild bearish bias, and whilst I’m still happy to trade the swings I’m not so sure about the bias anymore. There are a lot of (virtually every!) professional traders and analysts who are convinced that we are headed much higher and I guess I
The EUR will be whippy and silly at times I’m sure and even the GBP will get turbulent with EUR/GBP flows. I prefer to trade slightly ‘independent’ pairs like USD/JPY or AUD/USD during EUR-related risk events like today. We should get volatility but prices should return to some sort of normal value soon afterwards. USD/JPY
I’ve had a reasonably good handle on USD/JPY over the last two weeks and I know I’m trading a market well when I’m willing to flip from long to short and back again. Many of the bank macro analysts are turning bullish again on USD/JPY but I don’t sense this yet from the price action.
Forget about fundamentals, once the market gets a nasty shock the obvious reaction is to scale back on all open positions and exposure. One of the biggest positions in the market is short JPY and these positions could be tested in today’s conditions. I’m not taking any positions but I’m definitely looking at trading the
Many of the big stops, that we’ve been talking about for the last 2 days, were done overnight and a 250 pip fall was certainly a significant event. I’m really not sure what to do today during Asian trade, with prices sitting mid-range at 117.25. My shortish-term bias is still bearish but current levels aren’t
The market stalled in NY trade at a technical support level near 117.55 and with fundamentals still bullish alongside the trend, any stalling will have the market immediately thinking re-bound. But these rebounds will be shallow in my opinion and further heavy option-related stops down through 117.50 and 117.00 will surely be targeted, just like
My sources tell me that option players are very heavily skewed in USD/JPY and that hedges will need to be increased as we break fresh ground on the downside. Today’s break below 118.00 saw the first batch of sell orders triggered and there could be much more to come. I would not be at all
E-commerce dealers at the major banks were reporting sharply reduced liquidity yesterday and this will mean more volatility in a heavily-positioned USD/JPY market. The trend is obviously very strong but pull-backs will be sharp and painful. Put your traders cap on as we could easily see 300/350 pip ranges over coming sessions, perhaps 119.00/122.50, or
Normally these big optionality levels prove solid on the first test at least and I’ve been hearing for the last week or so that 117.50 is the next big
Every pullback seems to run into a myriad of bids and this type of sideways trading after a big up-move certainly smells of typical bullish consolidation. The next big optionality level is at 117.50 and that would seem to be the obvious topside target. Personally though I’m leaving it alone as my timing on this
The day-traders can’t complain about the opportunities in USD/JPY with multiple opportunities to trade either side of a 100 pip range. The market is awaiting official news of a general election in Japan and this uncertainty will only add to the volatility. There will be opportunities for both sides but those who’ve been buying dips