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USD/JPY: Pick a wide range, looks like it will be whippy

Posted on - December 9, 2014 8:23 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
E-commerce dealers at the major banks were reporting sharply reduced liquidity yesterday and this will mean more volatility in a heavily-positioned USD/JPY market. The trend is obviously very strong but pull-backs will be sharp and painful. Put your traders cap on as we could easily see 300/350 pip ranges over coming sessions, perhaps 119.00/122.50, or […]

USD/JPY: Significant optionality at 117.50 should provide solid resistance first up

Posted on - November 19, 2014 4:55 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Normally these big optionality levels prove solid on the first test at least and I’ve been hearing for the last week or so that 117.50 is the next big level.

USD/JPY: Feels like typical bullish consolidation- next target 117.50

Posted on - November 14, 2014 8:13 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Every pullback seems to run into a myriad of bids and this type of sideways trading after a big up-move certainly smells of typical bullish consolidation. The next big optionality level is at 117.50 and that would seem to be the obvious topside target. Personally though I’m leaving it alone as my timing on this […]

USD/JPY: Plenty of volatility, direction still bullish

Posted on - November 12, 2014 12:11 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The day-traders can’t complain about the opportunities in USD/JPY with multiple opportunities to trade either side of a 100 pip range. The market is awaiting official news of a general election in Japan and this uncertainty will only add to the volatility. There will be opportunities for both sides but those who’ve been buying dips […]

USD/JPY: Loss taken on short position, time to look for intraday swings

Posted on - November 7, 2014 7:12 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
The patient and alert trader had some very nice chances yesterday to pick up decent intraday swings and with volatility still high, I am better off looking for these kinds of opportunities than trying to pick exact directions. The market is long and bullish but there seems to be enough demand to continue to fuel […]

Currency wars -Korea will manage Won to move in line with Yen #FXWWchatroom

Posted on - November 6, 2014 3:15 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The race to the bottom just got even more crowded with Reuters reporting that the Korean vice-finance minister said in parliament that they will manage the KRW to move in line with the weakening Yen. USD/JPY has been crushed almost 100 pips lower from earlier spike highs at 115.40. FXWW chatroom.

USD/JPY: Showing no sign of easing whatsoever

Posted on - November 6, 2014 7:11 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The vertical uptrend in USD/JPY is showing no signs of wanting to consolidate and fresh highs are being made with ease. Many good commentators saw this coming  (not me I’m afraid ) and levels near 118 look feasible before we get totally overstretched. I continue to chase this market higher with my small short position; […]

USD/JPY: Short-term toppy near 113.80

Posted on - November 5, 2014 12:39 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I’m hearing a few snippets from around the market regarding downside stops in USD/JPY and in GBP/JPY in particular. We may see Europe have a go at these later on, as Asia certainly doesn’t seem to have any momentum. I’m still running a small short position in USD/JPY but after some modest day-trading efforts yesterday, […]

USD/JPY: Still running small short position

Posted on - November 3, 2014 9:27 am (Australia/Sydney) | 3 Comments
My short USD/JPY trade didn’t look great on Friday night and it looks even worse now, well over 100 pips out of the money. Luckily I only took a very small position but adding at current levels near 113 is not really an attractive proposition nor is closing the position after what might have been […]

USD/JPY: Looking to build medium-term shorts into 50% retracement level at 111.65

Posted on - October 31, 2014 5:13 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 5 Comments
The market was certainly taken by surprise by the BOJ’s additional easing but a closer look at the fine print may suggest that this is not such a big deal (robbing Peter to pay Paul so to speak). I will try fading the rally into the medium-term technical resistance level at 111.65 (50% 147.50/75.50). This […]

USD/JPY: Risk-reward favours long-term top-pickers

Posted on - October 27, 2014 7:42 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Picking levels in USD/JPY is will nigh impossible and it really is a matter of watching the market very closely for signs of accelerations and turns. I still cannot get away from the view that the big bull move from sub-80 on the back of the BOJ is running out of steam. That doesn’t mean […]

USD/JPY: Positional liquidation the main driver

Posted on - October 8, 2014 7:41 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
From the FXWW chatroom: I’m continuing to hear reports of hedge funds having to return money to Russian investors due to worldwide financial sanctions. This is leading to positional liquidation of longer term trades in the FX market, like everyone’s favourite USD/JPY trade, and in FI as well.

USD/JPY: Risk-off Friday, shorts preferred

Posted on - October 3, 2014 7:03 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There will be a lot of long positions in the market who are feeling very unsure right now. They got the move to 110.00 as they had hoped but the sharpness of the turnaround will be casting some doubt. The break below 108.60 will have convinced many bulls to book profits, so I’d expect 108.60/80 […]

JPY crosses: Profit taking and trailing stops

Posted on - October 2, 2014 6:58 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The professional market has been short JPY across the board and we saw some hefty profit taking emerge yesterday after the over-stretch to take out 110.00 USD/JPY barriers couldn’t be maintained. Other pairs like GBP/JPY broke out of holding patterns and triggered heavy trailing stops. In the shorter-term, I prefer selling any 50/60 pip rallies […]

USD/JPY barriers: One down one to go

Posted on - October 1, 2014 8:41 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
A large barrier at 109.75 has been knocked out so we can turn our attention to the next one at 110.00. This one will be even bigger I hear, but it seems inevitable that it too will be knocked out, maybe not on the first attempt though? Cheap trade of the day; sell at 109.95 […]

USD/JPY: Market still eyeing big barriers ahead of 110.00

Posted on - September 30, 2014 6:49 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There were plenty of reports in the FXWW chatroom yesterday of very large offers at 109.74/75, protecting an option play at 109.75 (the market needs to trade through the exact level in order to trigger the pay-out). There will be another possibly even bigger barrier at 110.00. USD sentiment remains buoyant and further attempts to […]

USD/JPY: Optionality, trailing stops and risk-off Friday

Posted on - September 26, 2014 8:08 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
Another failure to test optionality at 109.50 will have longs questioning their resolve. A quick look at the 4-hr chart shows exactly where the trailing stops will be, namely below 108.25. It is risk-off Friday, so we may see some of this week’s positions taken off?

USD/JPY: Favour playing 107.50/110.00 range

Posted on - September 23, 2014 8:55 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The entire world is bullish USD/JPY it seems and many are positioned accordingly. Sentiment will remain bullish whilst the respective central bank policies diverge but with positioning already at extreme levels, pull-backs are inevitable. We are currently experiencing a modest one, after 109.50 was rejected and ex-BOJ Iwata comments spooked some longs. 110.00 is the […]
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