Category in Trade Ideas

AUD/USD: Fibo retracement at .9060 providing technical support

End-of-month flows expected to be AUD/USD positive; Fibo support at .9060 (see chart) providing technical support; Flows in the crosses are overwhelmingly AUD negative with possible exception of AUD/JPY. More of the same likely in coming days, with the AUD set to lose more ground on the crosses and especially against the GBP. I’d be

Cable: Close above 1.6260 will only add to bullish sentiment

GBP/AUD has accelerated higher again and it’s next technical target is weekly highs just below 1.8500; EUR/GBP has edged a bit lower despite usual end-of-month central bank demand; Cable continues to break technical resistance levels and it seems that the market is finally starting to get the picture, this pair is headed

AUD/USD testing short-term resistance levels around .9200

There is some resistance on the hourly chart around .9200 and I would expect to find some trailing stops above .9205. The big level to watch in my view is Friday’s highs near .9250; if we break back above there then the bears will be getting worried. There was nothing overly AUD-bearish in the speech

Trade ideas for Tuesday November 26th

Cable has failed to break above 1.6260 and is threatening to retrace inside its consolidation range (see chart). Short-term cable bears have an obvious strategy to sell rallies above 1.6200 with stops above 1.6275. (Definitely not my side, I’m still long and am happy to buy deep dips). NZD/USD bounced off a 50% retracement level

EUR/USD outlook November 25th: More gains likely

Decent demand reported over the last few sessions and banks expect this to continue; End-of-month corporate demand and leveraged interest in EUR/AUD and EUR/JPY to the fore; Modest technical resistance near 1.3580 with stop-loss buy orders expected above; Potentially looser ECB policy not having any impact on the market; More short-term gains look

AUD/USD outlook November 25th

Another speech from the RBA deputy-Governor later tonight so we can expect more verbal intervention; Crosses like GBP/AUD have made significant bullish breaks and more AUD weakness is likely; Real-money funds and option players are chasing this move lower as they adjust hedges; There is some technical support (76.4% retracement) near .9060 but momentum is

Cable: Expect test of 1.6250/60 later today

Obviously talking my book here as usual but all the signs remain bullish for the GBP in my biased view. GBP/JPY and GBP/AUD have made strong technical breaks and once the crosses start heading in one direction, the cable is virtually certain to follow. There is major technical resistance at 1.6250/60 and the market tends

Major breaks on crosses should cause a re-think on AUD/USD, USD/JPY

GBP/JPY made a significant move higher last night breaking above monthly highs at 163.00. It’s unusual for these big levels to break on the first time of asking, but if they do then watch out! EUR/AUD made a more modest break above recent daily highs near 1.4550 but the up-trend looks to be back in

USD/JPY: Very heavy turnover near 100.75

The interbank market is reporting some very heavy turnover near 100.75, which was a recent daily high. The next big technical level to watch above here is 101.55. I still think some of the Yen crosses look susceptible to deeper dips and that’s why I’m not getting overly bullish on USD/JPY. Elsewhere I’m still watching

Nikkei moving higher taking USD/JPY towards resistance levels

Recent highs in USD/JPY at 100.55/60 are edging closer with a break higher in the Nikkei the catalyst. The BOJ will release their latest rate decision this afternoon and perhaps there are some bets being placed that they may announce some unexpected measures? They would certainly be unexpected as nobody is talking about