Most of the big recent moves have been in the crosses but the USD is looking increasingly likely to enjoy an end-of-year surge; EUR, GBP and CHF have made strong gains in recent months and could easily enter a period of consolidation; Most of the USD gains have been coming against the AUD and the

Looks to me as if the market was in base-picking mode for last few days and now we are seeing their confidence tested. The RBNZ didn’t say or do anything unexpected by my reading, but with rate rises in the offing for next year, it’s not hard to put a bullish-NZD spin on things. The

Reuters reported that the EZ is making significant progress in coming up with a plan to tackle ailing banks; EUR/USD consolidated it’s steady gains of recent days and is still targeting trend highs at 1.3830 (see chart). A clean break above there targets 1.40, always important psychologically and a magnet for options market; EUR/GBP regained

Silver is up 50 cents from yesterday morning and the contrarian trade we looked at is looking increasingly relevant. There has been plenty of chatter re large trailing stops through $20.50 and we should see a test of this level at some stage over the next few

USD/JPY: Trying to form a double-top at 103.35 and some heavy profit-taking was reported yesterday in many Yen crosses; USD/CHF: Trying to close below previous lows at .8880; AUD/USD: Short-term technical resistance at .9170 and the 21-dma is always relevant, coming in near .9190 today; EUR/USD: Targeting recent trend highs at 1.3830

GBP/JPY has breached recent daily highs at 169.15 and closed above there; USD/JPY has had an intraday pivot in recent sessions near 103.00 and the close above there makes a test of 103.70 increasingly likely; 1.6410 has been the level I’ve been watching in cable and the close above there makes further impulsive gains increasingly

Despite comments from renowned Fed-watcher Hilsenrath that we may see some tapering sooner rather than later, Silver still managed to rally by 2.5%; I’ve heard some second-hand reports which put Silver shorts at quite severe levels heading into the holiday season; Trailing stops are reportedly large above $20.50. I haven’t been actively trading it recently

AUD/NZD is starting to spend a bit more time below 1.10 suggesting that more losses are possible; EUR/AUD is also consolidating above an important technical level at 1.5030 and more gains are favoured; AUD/JPY is trading sideways still and not following the lead from other JPY pairs; AUD/USD continually runs into solid selling interest during

Looking for extremely over-bought or over-sold conditions can be a very profitable exercise in the FX market. Of course there are plenty of false alarms but if you trade them properly, these signals can be very profitable. Even though I’m a medium term GBP bull, the short-term signals are looking increasingly bearish but as yet

Very little movement in either overnight; I’ve reduced my long position in GBP/USD as the short-term signals feel slightly bearish to me; EUR/JPY rejected 140 pretty unequivocally and this cross could hold the key to short-term EUR moves. I can’t see much point in having any major risk on either GBP or EUR at the

AUD/NZD traded to lows at 1.1002 last night as barrier protection held the first attempt; AUD/JPY has come off quite heavily but is still in a medium-term holding pattern above 90.00; EUR/AUD is making a strong daily close above previous highs at 1.5030; AUD/USD is still very heavy and selling rallies looks like the safest

Trend highs at 103.70 were untested and the market ran out of momentum above 103.00 this time; All credible reports suggest that the market is sitting very short of Yen; Japanese investors have reportedly started to off-load overseas assets (albeit still in modest amounts) ahead of the capital gains hike in January. I prefer to

Market is already quite long of USD/JPY according to most reports; EUR/JPY turned sharply lower yesterday after touching 140 and now it’s the turn of AUD/JPY to fall; More losses likely in the short-term in USD/JPY from it’s current levels near 102.35 imho; Market to target stops below

Option barriers at .9050 in AUD/USD have been breached; Heavy selling in AUD/JPY is the main factor at play; Next technical support lies near 92.20 with the 100-dma at 91.70 (see chart).

There has been more positive data out of the UK and this has seen cable move back above 1.6400. There has also been a lot of action in the EUR/GBP options market, all one-way traffic namely GBP buyers. Nevertheless I have taken the opportunity to sell a bit more cable at 1.6410 and I’ve now

All those contrarians out there, like myself, should keep a close eye on this pair. If the 200-dma can hold again then we should see a fairly sharp sell-off ensue (see chart). My suggestion is to sell any intraday rallies to 94.30 with stops above 94.80. If an hourly top starts to form below the

Retail sales for November expected at +0.4% MoM; RBA widely expected to leave policy unchanged at last meeting for 2 months; AUD/USD support at .9050/60 with stops expected below this level; AUD/NZD back in bear mode and expected to test large optionality at 1.1000 in coming days; AUD/JPY still in sideways mode and needs to

Despite a big technical break yesterday, GBP/NZD failed to consolidate these gains and will close back near 2.0000; As mentioned below, EUR/USD is threatening to form a significant top near 1.3625 (see chart); AUD/USD has been trying to form an interim base near technical support at .9050/60. Some of these crosses have had really good