There has been a lot of AUD and NZD bought in the last week and this mainly real-money demand is starting to have an impact. After last week’s moves in the GBP, we cannot rule out any sort of silly market gaps and I believe that the structural speculative shorts in AUD, NZD and CAD

From a technical perspective, I expect some 600-pip range trading on a medium-term basis roughly between 76.00 and 81.50; Flow wise, there has been a lot of noticeable buying from Japanese real money accounts of both the AUD and NZD in recent weeks; This pair is traditionally one of the favourite ‘risk-off’ plays but with

I know all of us old interbank market dinosaurs will be driving you crazy with our “I told you so’s”, but we did! Whether for regulatory, commercial or technical reasons, the very core of the FX market no longer exists; namely the hundreds of interbank traders who sat at their desks and provided pricing no

The precious metals, the JPY and the GBP have been the main sufferers at the hands of a bouncing USD with the CAD and NZD not far behind.  The EUR and AUD remain strong on the crosses but are also losing a bit of ground against the greenback. The prospect of a Trump presidency is looking

As you all well know, I’m an inveterate contrarian and this trait is currently on show through my short EUR/GBP play from Friday. Unfortunately I do not think that this is a good position and I’m exiting with a slightly bloody nose before I do any more damage. It seems to me that most traders

Analysts, economists and commentators have been having their say for weeks but what are professional traders thinking? BOJ: Short-term risk is still to the downside according to most surveyed, with an almost unanimous expectation that the BOJ will introduce its adjusted policy framework but will be light on policy changes. Perhaps a token 10bps cut,

There has been a perception in the Asian market for decades that the big Japanese corporates somehow had the inside rub on major policy shifts by the BoJ. The idea being that hedging amounts tended to increase or decrease significantly in the lead up to major meetings. Next week’s meeting is looming as a major

There is still a long way to go before the competition ends and as we know in the financial markets, anything can happen. For now at least, we have a young member of the FXWW trader community leading the competition and he’s not showing any signs of nerves. Alfadhalah is typical of the new breed

We are almost 4 weeks into the Axi Trader million-dollar-trader competition and the front-runner Alfadhalah is showing no signs of slowing up. His performance has been quite extraordinary and I will post a more in-depth individual profile soon. The trend-followers have had a lucky break in that the market is in the midst of some

EUR/GBP: Market is short and bearish of EUR but we could see a nasty squeeze heading into the UK election. I prefer to look for dip-buying opportunities and will add aggressively if it starts breaking higher, purely as a short/medium-term (2-3 weeks) play. AUD/NZD: Looks set to break lower. Play from short side whilst 1.0220

I’ve felt for some time that the market has been getting way ahead of itself on the bullish USD front, especially with expectations that we would see a significant rise in interest rates over a short period of time. The Fed seems to be of the same view, namely that the US economy still needs

USD/JPY: Lot of people getting very bullish this pair on the back of potential central bank policy divergence but all we have heard so far is bluster, and no actions to follow it up. Recent history suggests that this pair is in a 100/105 holding range and I’m sticking to this. Cable: Has been the

Yen crosses still look liable to deeper falls in my view, led by EUR/JPY but with others like NZD/JPY also looking fragile after massive up-moves. The big level to watch today in EUR/JPY is 136.20. Option-protection and semi-official bids near 101.00 have been very strong indeed but the stops below 100.70 are reportedly massive as

I have read a number of quite bullish JPY predictions from major banks over the last few days. Geo-political considerations are the main driver as well as presumedly large long positions amongst Japanese investors in some of the JPY crosses, like GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY in particular. I’m not yet convinced that the market is ready

Very solid technical resistance now at 96.55; Short-term market sentiment seems to have swung in JPY favour; The RBA will continue to try and talk the AUD down; USD/JPY is in sideways trading pattern but reportedly very large stops below 100.70 could get targeted. Most of the short-term indicators are bearish imho and with an

This is a very long-term play for me and I will be trying to build on this position in coming months. In very simple terms I’m bullish AUD and bearish CHF and the levels which the cross is currently trading at are historically quite low. The daily chart is starting to obey some basic technical

I guess if the EUR/USD is susceptible to a short-squeeze and the AUD/USD is capped by option sellers, then we should consider a contrarian EUR/AUD trade 🙂 A 5-wave down-move has completed from 1.5540 to 1.4350 and a 38.2% retracement of that move would take us back toward 1.4800. Good risk reward potential for the

Basically I’ve got a CAD/CHF long position which is unlikely to move too far too fast! That suits me fine as I tend to struggle in these choppy sideways markets. USD/CAD should continue to trade sideways in a 1.08/1.10 range before (hopefully for me) breaking lower. USD/CHF looks to be trying to form a base