Category in Trade Ideas

AUD: Looking to book some profit on intraday rallies ahead of risk events

Plenty of risk events later today so I’m looking to reduce my AUD/JPY long position on any rallies towards 89.75; AUD/USD is in short-term holding pattern .8960/.9015 but the big levels to watch are still .8890/.9070; Bit surprising that AUD/NZD edged lower despite a stronger AUD everywhere else; EUR/AUD could test lower end of consolidation

EUR/USD: Expect support to be solid at 1.3165/70

A quick look at the daily chart shows why some traders are happy to start buying near current levels (see chart) and a PB source reports that bids are very solid near 1.3165/70. Much of the EUR selling in recent sessions has been cross-related with both EUR/AUD (positional adjustment) and EUR/GBP (M&A chatter) falling quite

AUD/USD: Still finding decent support near .8900

On the last two visits to .8900, dealers have been reporting ‘good names’ on the bid; Technical picture still looks bearish whilst below .9070 and a test of trend lows at .8845 looks quite possible; Don’t expect anything from RBA tomorrow; AUD/JPY stuck between .8625/.9015 and needs to break out of this range for fresh

USD/JPY: Radiation reports could have some effect today

This is what @FXWW303 wrote in the chat-room a little earlier: “The BBC report on Tepco’s inaccurate readings of radiation at the Fukushima plant is damaging for Tepco’s shares, Nikkei and doll yn. www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-Asia-2391950 readings at Fukushima are in fact 18 times worse than what Tepco has been reporting due to their equipment maxed out at 100

AUD/JPY: Balancing act between reducing risk for weekend and staying on risk-reward trade

I really like the risk-reward on being long of this pair. The technical set-up looks promising (double-bottom just above a major Fibo), the positioning set-up looks favourable (AUD shorts at significant levels), and the up-coming Australian election makes it highly likely that we will see short-covering kick in sooner rather than later. But as always

JPY outlook: Time for the bears to take over again?

Wedge pattern in USD/JPY won’t hold forever (see chart) and I expect it to break higher; EUR/JPY also in sideways consolidation whilst potential double-bottom in AUD/JPY (see below); Heavy risk-aversion has led to plenty of JPY buying in recent days but once this abates we should see plenty of Yen selling. Risk-reward favours being short

EUR and GBP staying rangebound

EUR/USD looks technically toppy in short-term so long as 1.3425/50 resistance is able to hold; Bank reports continue to suggest that this pair underpinned by strong structural demand and will break higher once the speculators wilt; Cable back at familiar levels after Carney’s speech delivered nothing new; EUR/GBP (surprise, surprise) still trading around .8600. I’m

Yen outlook: Expecting Yen to weaken when EM crisis recedes

USD/JPY is still trading in a consolidative wedge pattern suggesting the next impulsive move will be higher; Yen crosses have been heavily sold on risk-aversion emanating from EMs; Once this alleviates, I’d expect profit-taking to re-surface; I favour being short the Yen at or near to current levels. USD/JPY should now find support at 97.20/30

AUD/JPY: Taking small long position with stop below 86.10

Solid technical support at 86.25/40; Lot of buyers suddenly appearing in AUD/USD near .8900; USD/JPY still in wedge consolidation but topside danger IMHO. I’ve taken a small long position here just below 87.00. I got stopped out of my AUD/USD earlier at .8908 but it feels like its the bottom. I might be wrong again,