Category in Trade Ideas

Cable: Looks very constructive but needs to break above 1.5750

As you know I’m bullish on the GBP, long against both the USD and the EUR at present. I only sold a small amount of EUR/GBP and am looking for technical entry levels to increase this position. The levels in cable are much more clear-cut (see chart) and the daily chart continues to look very

AUD/JPY: Strong technical set-up, support/resistance at 90/93

No reason to jump off the bull train here. The clear technical target is at 93.00 and support lines are also very clear at 90.00 (see chart). Looking to further reduce long positions on any approach to 93.00 with the intention of re-buying on dips. Much of course will depend on the market reaction to

EUR/USD: Dominated by Sovereign flows; MAs provide technical support

ACBs reported selling rallies as reserve re-balancing continues post USD/AXJ intervention; Sovereign wealth funds noted buyers on dips; 100 and 200-day MAs providing technical support levels 1.3135/45; EUR remains soft on crosses especially against AUD and GBP; EUR/GBP large barrier at .8400 could prove

AUD: Bullish across board but AUD/USD hitting the wall

Strong technical break in AUD/JPY, but confirmation needed (see chart); Technical resistance in AUD/USD at .9060/70 holding for now (see chart); AUD/NZD played catch-up and is targeting first Fibo resistance at 1.1760, playing ranges favoured; EUR/AUD is targeting important support at 1.4350, playing ranges favoured; ACBs reportedly selling AUD/USD rallies as reserve re-balancing continues; RBA …

AUD: Looking to book some profit on intraday rallies ahead of risk events

Plenty of risk events later today so I’m looking to reduce my AUD/JPY long position on any rallies towards 89.75; AUD/USD is in short-term holding pattern .8960/.9015 but the big levels to watch are still .8890/.9070; Bit surprising that AUD/NZD edged lower despite a stronger AUD everywhere else; EUR/AUD could test lower end of consolidation

EUR/USD: Expect support to be solid at 1.3165/70

A quick look at the daily chart shows why some traders are happy to start buying near current levels (see chart) and a PB source reports that bids are very solid near 1.3165/70. Much of the EUR selling in recent sessions has been cross-related with both EUR/AUD (positional adjustment) and EUR/GBP (M&A chatter) falling quite

AUD/USD: Still finding decent support near .8900

On the last two visits to .8900, dealers have been reporting ‘good names’ on the bid; Technical picture still looks bearish whilst below .9070 and a test of trend lows at .8845 looks quite possible; Don’t expect anything from RBA tomorrow; AUD/JPY stuck between .8625/.9015 and needs to break out of this range for fresh

USD/JPY: Radiation reports could have some effect today

This is what @FXWW303 wrote in the chat-room a little earlier: “The BBC report on Tepco’s inaccurate readings of radiation at the Fukushima plant is damaging for Tepco’s shares, Nikkei and doll yn. readings at Fukushima are in fact 18 times worse than what Tepco has been reporting due to their equipment maxed out at 100

AUD/JPY: Balancing act between reducing risk for weekend and staying on risk-reward trade

I really like the risk-reward on being long of this pair. The technical set-up looks promising (double-bottom just above a major Fibo), the positioning set-up looks favourable (AUD shorts at significant levels), and the up-coming Australian election makes it highly likely that we will see short-covering kick in sooner rather than later. But as always

JPY outlook: Time for the bears to take over again?

Wedge pattern in USD/JPY won’t hold forever (see chart) and I expect it to break higher; EUR/JPY also in sideways consolidation whilst potential double-bottom in AUD/JPY (see below); Heavy risk-aversion has led to plenty of JPY buying in recent days but once this abates we should see plenty of Yen selling. Risk-reward favours being short