Category in Trade Ideas

AUD/USD: Still finding decent support near .8900

On the last two visits to .8900, dealers have been reporting ‘good names’ on the bid; Technical picture still looks bearish whilst below .9070 and a test of trend lows at .8845 looks quite possible; Don’t expect anything from RBA tomorrow; AUD/JPY stuck between .8625/.9015 and needs to break out of this range for fresh

USD/JPY: Radiation reports could have some effect today

This is what @FXWW303 wrote in the chat-room a little earlier: “The BBC report on Tepco’s inaccurate readings of radiation at the Fukushima plant is damaging for Tepco’s shares, Nikkei and doll yn. readings at Fukushima are in fact 18 times worse than what Tepco has been reporting due to their equipment maxed out at 100

AUD/JPY: Balancing act between reducing risk for weekend and staying on risk-reward trade

I really like the risk-reward on being long of this pair. The technical set-up looks promising (double-bottom just above a major Fibo), the positioning set-up looks favourable (AUD shorts at significant levels), and the up-coming Australian election makes it highly likely that we will see short-covering kick in sooner rather than later. But as always

JPY outlook: Time for the bears to take over again?

Wedge pattern in USD/JPY won’t hold forever (see chart) and I expect it to break higher; EUR/JPY also in sideways consolidation whilst potential double-bottom in AUD/JPY (see below); Heavy risk-aversion has led to plenty of JPY buying in recent days but once this abates we should see plenty of Yen selling. Risk-reward favours being short

EUR and GBP staying rangebound

EUR/USD looks technically toppy in short-term so long as 1.3425/50 resistance is able to hold; Bank reports continue to suggest that this pair underpinned by strong structural demand and will break higher once the speculators wilt; Cable back at familiar levels after Carney’s speech delivered nothing new; EUR/GBP (surprise, surprise) still trading around .8600. I’m

Yen outlook: Expecting Yen to weaken when EM crisis recedes

USD/JPY is still trading in a consolidative wedge pattern suggesting the next impulsive move will be higher; Yen crosses have been heavily sold on risk-aversion emanating from EMs; Once this alleviates, I’d expect profit-taking to re-surface; I favour being short the Yen at or near to current levels. USD/JPY should now find support at 97.20/30

AUD/JPY: Taking small long position with stop below 86.10

Solid technical support at 86.25/40; Lot of buyers suddenly appearing in AUD/USD near .8900; USD/JPY still in wedge consolidation but topside danger IMHO. I’ve taken a small long position here just below 87.00. I got stopped out of my AUD/USD earlier at .8908 but it feels like its the bottom. I might be wrong again,

AUD outlook: Possible double-bottom in AUD/USD but AUD/JPY still looking soft

AUD/USD has the possibility of forming a double-bottom but needs to break above .9070 to confirm (see chart); AUD/JPY looks likely to test recent lows at 86.40 with important Fibo support just behind there at 86.25 (see chart); AUD/NZD made a bullish break last week and has retraced to its 38.2% level (see chart), which

EUR/JPY grinding higher, eyeing important resistance at 132.75

This pair has proved to be very resilient in recent times and we are likely to get a test of important technical resistance at 132.75 in coming sessions (see chart). For now I would tend to stick with the range edges and sell into strength but if EUR/USD were to break back above 1.3450 again,