Category in Trade Ideas

EUR/USD: Main risk still to the topside

I think you just have to read the comments on this or other sites to realise that the overwhelming sentiment in the market is bearish on EUR/USD! Most traders are looking to sell rallies for the ‘inevitable’ fall to 1.20 but the claims of the Euro’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. Structural flows remain primarily

AUD/USD: Adding to longs at .9075

AUD/JPY support at 88.70 has broken but there has been no significant follow through. EUR/AUD has rallied over 250 pips since yesterday and is nearing resistance levels at 1.4740/50. The break-up acceleration level in AUD/USD was at .9050 and that level should provide solid support. I reduced my longs last week at .9200 and am

EUR, GBP still looking quite strong

Any big move higher in EUR is likely to be driven by equity-manager flows according to bank research that I’ve read; Very important EUR/USD resistance levels remain near 1.3425 but with stop-loss buy orders likely above there, this level is a red-rag to a bull; On the crosses, EUR/GBP looks heavy whilst below .8600, EUR/CHF

USD/JPY outlook August 19th: Conflicting forces at play but bear-strategy favoured

Big players remain very long of USD/JPY; Crosses are mixed with AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY looking bullish but EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY running into quite heavy selling interest; Higher US yields should be favouring USD/JPY bulls but the fact that it can’t maintain rallies, despite the Fed/BoJ policies, is a damning bearish indicator; Big option plays should

AUD/USD outlook, August 19th: Consolidation before more gains

I’m still of belief that a base is in place near .9000 and will only change this view below .8950; Strong moves in metals will benefit AUD but sell-off in global equity markets is a bearish factor; Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see some extended .90/.93 consolidation pre-Australian general election; AUD/JPY made a bullish

AUD/JPY: Small longs in play as Fibo support holds again

Momentum funds have been selling USD/JPY this morning but stops below 97.00 remain safe for now. Japanese banks have been noted buyers of AUD/USD in recent trade near .9125/30. 38.2% Fibo support in AUD/JPY near 88.70. I’ve taken a small long intraday position near 88.75 with a tight stop below 88.50, looking for 90.00 later

European currencies range-bound in Asia: USD/CHF squeezing shorts

USD/CHF has been a significant mover over the last few days and the short squeeze could pick up momentum above .9400 (see chart). Cable is retracing off its recent highs but I’m still in dip-buying mode. Support on the day at previous highs near 1.5390 but I prefer to wait for levels closer to 1.5280.

USD/JPY: Underpinned by covering on crosses and rising US yields

Significant optionality reported near 98.50 which should prove magnetic but will also be tough to break through. Rising US yields will be encouraging the dip-buyers to return to USD/JPY. Certain crosses like AUD/JPY have made significant technically bullish moves in last 24 hours. But, prime brokers still reporting sell-rally interest in pairs like GBP/JPY. Looks

AUD/USD outlook, August 14th

I’m still very firmly in the buy-dip camp and I believe levels near .9035/50 will give existing shorts a good short-covering possibility (see chart). We are currently seeing a short-term USD-bullish phase but I don’t expect this to last very long. USD yields rallied, after decent economic data and Fed comments, whilst Gold fell after