Category in Trade Ideas

AUD/USD: Soft feel this morning, risk-off Friday

Mixed pictures on the crosses with AUD/JPY looking soft, targeting 92.80, and EUR/AUD looking bullish, targeting 1.45+; AUD/NZD on the other hand looks strong and a test of 1.1650 looks likely; Prior highs at .9520 are the obvious downside target in AUD/USD but with USD sentiment still poor, buying big dips is the play; Resistance

USD/JPY: Sitting right on the 200-DMA

Heavy offers reported between 97.70/85; Technical support at 97.25 200-DMA (see chart); Weekly close below will be a major technical event; Two ways of playing this in my opinion: Bears can try selling intraday rallies towards 97.70 and adding on a break back below 97.00. Cut the position if it can’t close below 97.25. Bulls

EUR continues to be very well supported

The strengthening Yuan is leading to some quite heavy EUR buying from Chinese interests; Sell orders near 1.3800 in EUR/USD are quite heavy but there’s not much sign of a dip; Some of the crosses like EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP made some very easy gains yesterday suggesting more topside ahead. I’d still tend towards buying dips

USD/JPY: Dead-heat in race to the bottom

The market doesn’t like either currency at the moment and broad sideways trading is very likely to continue between 95.50/101.50 (see chart); My bias is tending towards slightly bullish given how strong momentum is developing in some of the crosses, EUR/JPY in particular; Positioning is the great unknown here but we’ve seen little evidence to

AUD/USD: Looking to play .9550/.9725 range over coming sessions

As mentioned below, barrier protection in AUD/JPY ahead of 95.00 is quite large; EUR/AUD bids near 1.4120/25 are also proving stubborn; Important technical resistance at .9715 in AUD/USD (see chart); The USD is still in a strong bear trend imho so buying big dips in AUD/USD is the obvious strategy; That said, the same people

AUD crosses sitting right on resistance levels

AUD/USD technical target looming at .9720 (see chart); AUD/JPY has broken above recent highs at 94.40 but is stalling ahead of the 200-dma at 94.70; EUR/AUD is sitting right on short-term support levels at 1.4130 (see chart); Real-money funds still the main buyers in AUD/USD; USD sentiment remains very bearish and risk sentiment is moderately

EUR/USD: Technical resistance at 1.3710

Barrier at 1.3700 was breached on Friday; Technical resistance at 1.3710 (see chart) is next to watch and a break above will change short-term momentum; The medium to long-term outlook is for further range trading inside of a 20/25 big figure range; I remain bearish on the EUR crosses in the short-medium term, especially EUR/GBP;

USD/JPY: Both components looking like funding currencies

With tapering in the US looking less likely, the market has been ploughing back into ‘risk-on’ trades like the Yen crosses; But USD bearish sentiment after the debt-deal debacle is likely to outweigh Yen bearishness imho; One big Japanese bank was selling large amounts of USD every 10/15 pips on the way up towards 99.00;

Cable: More gains look likely

This is still my preferred vehicle for trading the bearish USD view and until the short-term trend shows signs of weakening, I’d stay firmly in the bull camp; EUR/GBP resistance at .8500 continues to hold; Real money funds were the main buyers reported overnight in cable; Strong base formed now near 1.5915 despite one marginal

AUD/USD: Looking to trade .9550/.9715 in coming sessions

USD bears in complete control again; Risk trades got a boost as ‘tapering’ liklihood reduced; Real money funds driving the USD selling; AUD/JPY resistance at 94.45/65 still relevant and increasingly important; AUD/NZD support still holding and EUR/AUD still in downtrend, but oversold; RBA Governor speaking publicly today and he may use the opportunity to try

No obvious trades as markets stay in doldrums

Nobody wants to trade ahead of tomorrow’s deadline and I’m certainly not blaming them. EUR/GBP: Technicals favour further losses imho and we can expect some volatility post-UK jobs data in 40 minutes; AUD/JPY is threatening to form a double-top at 94.10, worth watching for sure; AUD/USD option barriers at .9550 and .9600 (bigger); Real money

EUR/GBP: Shorts preferred with stops above .8505

This pair is less likely to be affected by any debt-deal silliness so we can start paying attention to the technical picture. The 5-wave down-move from .8770  to .8330 has retraced by 38.2% to .8500 and has now put in a daily top at this level (see chart). Selling any intraday rallies towards this level