We have a thrice tested trend-line coming in near 98.20 (see chart); Short-term sentiment is bearish with market turning against the USD but also unexpectedly risk-averse post FOMC; Market reports suggest that the big macro funds remain quite long of USD/JPY. If you want to be long USD, this pair seems like the obvious choice

This pair treated us well on Monday and our patience has been rewarded with another chance to enter at good technical levels (see chart). Sell rallies 1.4450/60 and keep stops fairly tight above

I think we could see prices fall as low as 1.5750/1.5800 on a stretch but I’m strongly of the opinion that any big dips are buying opportunities. Cable has never been the most obedient technical pair but this has started to change with the increased number of retail traders (who tend to be more technical

This morning’s trade data (New Zealand (NZD) Imports (AUG): $4.52B, Expected: $4.30B, Previous: $4.62B New Zealand (NZD) Trade Balance (AUG) (m/m): $-1,191M, Expected: $-743M, Previous: $-774M New Zealand (NZD) Trade Balance (AUG) (y/y): $-2.06B, Expected: $-1.62B, Previous: $-1.69B and a long-NZD market are conspiring to squeeze some positions especially on the crosses. NZD/JPY has started …

This is a lovely technical set-up which delivered a quick 100 pip return yesterday so why not see if lightning can strike twice. There is a possible double-top formation with a neckline at 1.4460 (see chart). I’m looking to sell a failure at this level with fairly tight stops above

EUR/CHF could join EUR/JPY (see JPY outlook) in a deeper retracement, with 1.2215 the target here; EUR/GBP is also still solidly in a bear trend and selling rallies is heavily favoured; Market focus is returning to the EZ banking sector and renewed ‘flight of funds’ from the EZ to London or Zurich cannot be discounted;

Most interbank reports suggest that macro AUD positioning is now back at close to neutral levels; AUD/USD technical resistance at .9510 (38.2% 1.0580/.8850) confirmed; EUR/AUD technical resistance at 1.4450 (double-top neckline) confirmed; I’d look to play a .9225/.9525 range in AUD/USD over the coming week and I think it’s possible that we will see either

AUD/JPY looks to be in retracement mode and we could see a deeper dip towards 91.40 (see chart); EUR/JPY also looks susceptible to a deeper retracement towards 131.50 or even 130.50 (see chart); Positioning is the main factor for me in USD/JPY and with the market sitting long and momentum waning, I see a danger

Nice to start the week with a quick 100 pip profit and I’ve taken my EUR/AUD shorts back at 1.4340. Will look to sell any intraday rallies back above

Overall I remain firmly in the USD-bear camp but of course there will be plenty of swings and roundabouts especially when cross plays take precedence. EUR/USD looks quite constructive technically and buying dips back towards 1.3410/50 looks like the obvious play. But, we may get a buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction to the German election? I do not

AUD/USD: Previously pivotal resistance at .9320/50 should now provide strong support (see chart); AUD/NZD: Marginal, stop-driven, push below 1.1200 this morning but this is still an important level; AUD/JPY: Somewhat overbought based on steepness of up-trend but prior resistance at 93.00 does provide initial support (see chart); EUR/AUD: Neckline of double-top comes in at 1.4450

Purely technical play here with the neckline of double-top coming in at 1.4450 (see chart). I’m short with a fairly tight stop above 1.4500 looking for a 1.4200 re-test in coming days. Risk event today is the HSBC version of Chinese manufacturing PMI, but Japan is closed for a public

Wishing you all a very pleasant weekend; I’m off to the Sydney Opera House for an evening of Wagnerian music which I’m sure will be magnificent. Here’s the latest from the chat-room: John Webb Market News 3:35:20 pmOPTIONS: Option expiries for today’s NY cut 1000ET, * Euro-dollar; $1.3400, $1.3475, $1.3500(E400mn), $1.3575 * Dollar-yen; Y98.00, Y98.35, Y98.50,

This is the chart that the USD/JPY bulls are looking at (see chart) and it does present quite a compelling case. In a perfect world we would wait for confirmation when 100.50 is broken and then buy dips for a move to 108. The world seldom works in perfect order but maybe it will this

The cross has finally started to retrace after a reasonably big fall and the obvious targets are now at .8500 and .8535 (see chart). Extreme patience is required with this pair but I remain in the bear camp and am happy to sell rallies back towards these levels. Any short-term dips back towards .8390 will

Consistent corporate buying has been noted on every dip towards 1.4200 in recent weeks; Modest technical support seen around 1.4170 (see chart); Clean break below 1.4150 opens possibility of deeper falls towards 1.3860; Fed decision should be seen as risk-positive and therefore AUD-positive. Decent risk-reward in buying dips towards 1.4170 with very tight stops below

Even the chat-room has been unable to get the market moving today 🙂 By the way, the FXWW-Techs room is also now open and that is open to all to converse in. “”Milan Cutkovic FXWW Pty Ltd 3:54:23 pmUBS_Morning_Adviser.pdf Sep 18 Anjaney Kumar Punjab National Bank 3:56:01 pmtx Milan’ 4:20:15 pm  ROUBINI: BASED ON `WEAK MACRO DATA’

This pair can now rally 300 pips straight north as I’m booking 1/2 my profit at 1.5910. I simply don’t want to have any type of a large position heading into the Fed. I’m still running an intraday short position in USD/JPY but I have a very tight stop on that and will certainly cut