Category in Trade Ideas

EUR/USD: Technical resistance at 1.3710

Barrier at 1.3700 was breached on Friday; Technical resistance at 1.3710 (see chart) is next to watch and a break above will change short-term momentum; The medium to long-term outlook is for further range trading inside of a 20/25 big figure range; I remain bearish on the EUR crosses in the short-medium term, especially EUR/GBP;

USD/JPY: Both components looking like funding currencies

With tapering in the US looking less likely, the market has been ploughing back into ‘risk-on’ trades like the Yen crosses; But USD bearish sentiment after the debt-deal debacle is likely to outweigh Yen bearishness imho; One big Japanese bank was selling large amounts of USD every 10/15 pips on the way up towards 99.00;

Cable: More gains look likely

This is still my preferred vehicle for trading the bearish USD view and until the short-term trend shows signs of weakening, I’d stay firmly in the bull camp; EUR/GBP resistance at .8500 continues to hold; Real money funds were the main buyers reported overnight in cable; Strong base formed now near 1.5915 despite one marginal

AUD/USD: Looking to trade .9550/.9715 in coming sessions

USD bears in complete control again; Risk trades got a boost as ‘tapering’ liklihood reduced; Real money funds driving the USD selling; AUD/JPY resistance at 94.45/65 still relevant and increasingly important; AUD/NZD support still holding and EUR/AUD still in downtrend, but oversold; RBA Governor speaking publicly today and he may use the opportunity to try

No obvious trades as markets stay in doldrums

Nobody wants to trade ahead of tomorrow’s deadline and I’m certainly not blaming them. EUR/GBP: Technicals favour further losses imho and we can expect some volatility post-UK jobs data in 40 minutes; AUD/JPY is threatening to form a double-top at 94.10, worth watching for sure; AUD/USD option barriers at .9550 and .9600 (bigger); Real money

EUR/GBP: Shorts preferred with stops above .8505

This pair is less likely to be affected by any debt-deal silliness so we can start paying attention to the technical picture. The 5-wave down-move from .8770  to .8330 has retraced by 38.2% to .8500 and has now put in a daily top at this level (see chart). Selling any intraday rallies towards this level

Australian jobs data main risk event this morning

AUD/USD short-term chart looks moderately bullish although its not at attractive levels for buying (see chart); If bullish, prefer to wait and see if initial technical support levels hold near .9400/10 or preferably wait for stronger levels near .9335/50; Risk-reward would seem to favour the bears in short-term, with recent highs above .9500 still capping;

European open: Still prefer to play market from short-USD side

USD/JPY broke below the 200-DMA at 96.68 but failed to trigger stops below 96.50; Semi-official names remain the noted buyers on dips; JPY crosses are higher across the board after Asian session; I think USD/JPY will struggle to break above 97.20/30 and any further gains in Yen crosses will come through the components; AUD/NZD continues