Category in Trade Ideas

USD/JPY: Trend-line support looming near 98.20

We have a thrice tested trend-line coming in near 98.20 (see chart); Short-term sentiment is bearish with market turning against the USD but also unexpectedly risk-averse post FOMC; Market reports suggest that the big macro funds remain quite long of USD/JPY. If you want to be long USD, this pair seems like the obvious choice

NZD still losing ground against the JPY and the AUD

This morning’s trade data (New Zealand (NZD) Imports (AUG): $4.52B, Expected: $4.30B, Previous: $4.62B New Zealand (NZD) Trade Balance (AUG) (m/m): $-1,191M, Expected: $-743M, Previous: $-774M New Zealand (NZD) Trade Balance (AUG) (y/y): $-2.06B, Expected: $-1.62B, Previous: $-1.69B and a long-NZD market are conspiring to squeeze some positions especially on the crosses. NZD/JPY has started …

EUR outlook: Sell rallies against GBP and JPY as market focus returns to EZ banking sector

EUR/CHF could join EUR/JPY (see JPY outlook) in a deeper retracement, with 1.2215 the target here; EUR/GBP is also still solidly in a bear trend and selling rallies is heavily favoured; Market focus is returning to the EZ banking sector and renewed ‘flight of funds’ from the EZ to London or Zurich cannot be discounted;

AUD outlook: Positioning now neutral

Most interbank reports suggest that macro AUD positioning is now back at close to neutral levels; AUD/USD technical resistance at .9510 (38.2% 1.0580/.8850) confirmed; EUR/AUD technical resistance at 1.4450 (double-top neckline) confirmed; I’d look to play a .9225/.9525 range in AUD/USD over the coming week and I think it’s possible that we will see either

JPY outlook: Selling short-term rallies in Yen crosses is preferred strategy

AUD/JPY looks to be in retracement mode and we could see a deeper dip towards 91.40 (see chart); EUR/JPY also looks susceptible to a deeper retracement towards 131.50 or even 130.50 (see chart); Positioning is the main factor for me in USD/JPY and with the market sitting long and momentum waning, I see a danger

EUR/USD: Buying big dips still preferred but we may get one….

Overall I remain firmly in the USD-bear camp but of course there will be plenty of swings and roundabouts especially when cross plays take precedence. EUR/USD looks quite constructive technically and buying dips back towards 1.3410/50 looks like the obvious play. But, we may get a buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction to the German election? I do not

AUD: Plenty of support levels nearby

AUD/USD: Previously pivotal resistance at .9320/50 should now provide strong support (see chart); AUD/NZD: Marginal, stop-driven, push below 1.1200 this morning but this is still an important level; AUD/JPY: Somewhat overbought based on steepness of up-trend but prior resistance at 93.00 does provide initial support (see chart); EUR/AUD: Neckline of double-top comes in at 1.4450

Signing off with latest from the chat-room

Wishing you all a very pleasant weekend; I’m off to the Sydney Opera House for an evening of Wagnerian music which I’m sure will be magnificent. Here’s the latest from the chat-room: John Webb Market News 3:35:20 pmOPTIONS: Option expiries for today’s NY cut 1000ET, * Euro-dollar; $1.3400, $1.3475, $1.3500(E400mn), $1.3575 * Dollar-yen; Y98.00, Y98.35, Y98.50,

EUR/AUD: Worth buying dips but keep stops tight below 1.4150

Consistent corporate buying has been noted on every dip towards 1.4200 in recent weeks; Modest technical support seen around 1.4170 (see chart); Clean break below 1.4150 opens possibility of deeper falls towards 1.3860; Fed decision should be seen as risk-positive and therefore AUD-positive. Decent risk-reward in buying dips towards 1.4170 with very tight stops below

Chat-room update

Even the chat-room has been unable to get the market moving today 🙂 By the way, the FXWW-Techs room is also now open and that is open to all to converse in. “”Milan Cutkovic FXWW Pty Ltd 3:54:23 pmUBS_Morning_Adviser.pdf Sep 18 Anjaney Kumar Punjab National Bank 3:56:01 pmtx Milan’ 4:20:15 pm  ROUBINI: BASED ON `WEAK MACRO DATA’