Category in Trade Ideas

No obvious trades as markets stay in doldrums

Nobody wants to trade ahead of tomorrow’s deadline and I’m certainly not blaming them. EUR/GBP: Technicals favour further losses imho and we can expect some volatility post-UK jobs data in 40 minutes; AUD/JPY is threatening to form a double-top at 94.10, worth watching for sure; AUD/USD option barriers at .9550 and .9600 (bigger); Real money

EUR/GBP: Shorts preferred with stops above .8505

This pair is less likely to be affected by any debt-deal silliness so we can start paying attention to the technical picture. The 5-wave down-move from .8770  to .8330 has retraced by 38.2% to .8500 and has now put in a daily top at this level (see chart). Selling any intraday rallies towards this level

Australian jobs data main risk event this morning

AUD/USD short-term chart looks moderately bullish although its not at attractive levels for buying (see chart); If bullish, prefer to wait and see if initial technical support levels hold near .9400/10 or preferably wait for stronger levels near .9335/50; Risk-reward would seem to favour the bears in short-term, with recent highs above .9500 still capping;

European open: Still prefer to play market from short-USD side

USD/JPY broke below the 200-DMA at 96.68 but failed to trigger stops below 96.50; Semi-official names remain the noted buyers on dips; JPY crosses are higher across the board after Asian session; I think USD/JPY will struggle to break above 97.20/30 and any further gains in Yen crosses will come through the components; AUD/NZD continues

AUD/USD: Buying dips favoured for .9525 re-test

USD sentiment remains weak amid on-going US budget impasse; AUD has started to recover strongly on the crosses; This recovery has happened despite supposed ‘risk-off’ trading conditions; Technically, AUD/USD dipped and bounced off a 38.2% retracement level, usually a sign of a strong trend; I favour the buy-dips strategy in AUD/USD until something happens to

USD/JPY: 96.60/75 looks like the pivotal level to watch

Depending on which charting system you are using, the 200-day SMA comes in somewhere between 96.60/75. We also have the previously broken trend-line which many are now watching for support (see chart) and I’d expect many macro longs to start exiting below 96.50. The US budget situation is not helping either USD-longs or risk-longs and