This is a lovely technical set-up which delivered a quick 100 pip return yesterday so why not see if lightning can strike twice. There is a possible double-top formation with a neckline at 1.4460 (see chart). I’m looking to sell a failure at this level with fairly tight stops above

EUR/CHF could join EUR/JPY (see JPY outlook) in a deeper retracement, with 1.2215 the target here; EUR/GBP is also still solidly in a bear trend and selling rallies is heavily favoured; Market focus is returning to the EZ banking sector and renewed ‘flight of funds’ from the EZ to London or Zurich cannot be discounted;

Most interbank reports suggest that macro AUD positioning is now back at close to neutral levels; AUD/USD technical resistance at .9510 (38.2% 1.0580/.8850) confirmed; EUR/AUD technical resistance at 1.4450 (double-top neckline) confirmed; I’d look to play a .9225/.9525 range in AUD/USD over the coming week and I think it’s possible that we will see either

AUD/JPY looks to be in retracement mode and we could see a deeper dip towards 91.40 (see chart); EUR/JPY also looks susceptible to a deeper retracement towards 131.50 or even 130.50 (see chart); Positioning is the main factor for me in USD/JPY and with the market sitting long and momentum waning, I see a danger

Nice to start the week with a quick 100 pip profit and I’ve taken my EUR/AUD shorts back at 1.4340. Will look to sell any intraday rallies back above

Overall I remain firmly in the USD-bear camp but of course there will be plenty of swings and roundabouts especially when cross plays take precedence. EUR/USD looks quite constructive technically and buying dips back towards 1.3410/50 looks like the obvious play. But, we may get a buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction to the German election? I do not

AUD/USD: Previously pivotal resistance at .9320/50 should now provide strong support (see chart); AUD/NZD: Marginal, stop-driven, push below 1.1200 this morning but this is still an important level; AUD/JPY: Somewhat overbought based on steepness of up-trend but prior resistance at 93.00 does provide initial support (see chart); EUR/AUD: Neckline of double-top comes in at 1.4450

Purely technical play here with the neckline of double-top coming in at 1.4450 (see chart). I’m short with a fairly tight stop above 1.4500 looking for a 1.4200 re-test in coming days. Risk event today is the HSBC version of Chinese manufacturing PMI, but Japan is closed for a public

Wishing you all a very pleasant weekend; I’m off to the Sydney Opera House for an evening of Wagnerian music which I’m sure will be magnificent. Here’s the latest from the chat-room: John Webb Market News 3:35:20 pmOPTIONS: Option expiries for today’s NY cut 1000ET, * Euro-dollar; $1.3400, $1.3475, $1.3500(E400mn), $1.3575 * Dollar-yen; Y98.00, Y98.35, Y98.50,

This is the chart that the USD/JPY bulls are looking at (see chart) and it does present quite a compelling case. In a perfect world we would wait for confirmation when 100.50 is broken and then buy dips for a move to 108. The world seldom works in perfect order but maybe it will this

The cross has finally started to retrace after a reasonably big fall and the obvious targets are now at .8500 and .8535 (see chart). Extreme patience is required with this pair but I remain in the bear camp and am happy to sell rallies back towards these levels. Any short-term dips back towards .8390 will

Consistent corporate buying has been noted on every dip towards 1.4200 in recent weeks; Modest technical support seen around 1.4170 (see chart); Clean break below 1.4150 opens possibility of deeper falls towards 1.3860; Fed decision should be seen as risk-positive and therefore AUD-positive. Decent risk-reward in buying dips towards 1.4170 with very tight stops below

Even the chat-room has been unable to get the market moving today 🙂 By the way, the FXWW-Techs room is also now open and that is open to all to converse in. “”Milan Cutkovic FXWW Pty Ltd 3:54:23 pmUBS_Morning_Adviser.pdf Sep 18 Anjaney Kumar Punjab National Bank 3:56:01 pmtx Milan’ 4:20:15 pm  ROUBINI: BASED ON `WEAK MACRO DATA’

This pair can now rally 300 pips straight north as I’m booking 1/2 my profit at 1.5910. I simply don’t want to have any type of a large position heading into the Fed. I’m still running an intraday short position in USD/JPY but I have a very tight stop on that and will certainly cut

Latest rebound stalling at a 61.8% rebound level (see chart); Taper already written into market pricing; Retail and professional markets remain quite long of this pair. I know logic says that we should be long USD/JPY but risk-reward at moment is in favour of the bears. Keep stops tight either side; if long keep stops

Fed tapering is theoretically bullish for the USD and bearish for risk trades, in other words 100% bearish for AUD/USD. Unfortunately for the current-day bears, it’s been a matter of sell-the-rumour-buy-the-fact. This ‘taper’ expectation has been in the market since the AUD/USD was at 1.05 and we’ve seen it fall to .88 on the back

(See chart). I really like the risk-reward possibilities on this trade. Trend-line and Fibo resistance on the hourly chart at 99.40 and bears can try selling there with a tight

We saw a somewhat ‘silly’ and overdone sell-off in the USD earlier this morning on the back of news that Larry Summers would not be seeking the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve. Stops were done across the board, especially in pairs like USD/JPY and AUD/USD, but the lack of a decent retracement will be worrying