I’ve felt for some time that the market has been getting way ahead of itself on the bullish USD front, especially with expectations that we would see a significant rise in interest rates over a short period of time. The Fed seems to be of the same view, namely that the US economy still needs […]

USD/JPY: Lot of people getting very bullish this pair on the back of potential central bank policy divergence but all we have heard so far is bluster, and no actions to follow it up. Recent history suggests that this pair is in a 100/105 holding range and I’m sticking to this. Cable: Has been the […]

Yen crosses still look liable to deeper falls in my view, led by EUR/JPY but with others like NZD/JPY also looking fragile after massive up-moves. The big level to watch today in EUR/JPY is 136.20. Option-protection and semi-official bids near 101.00 have been very strong indeed but the stops below 100.70 are reportedly massive as […]

I have read a number of quite bullish JPY predictions from major banks over the last few days. Geo-political considerations are the main driver as well as presumedly large long positions amongst Japanese investors in some of the JPY crosses, like GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY in particular. I’m not yet convinced that the market is ready […]

Very solid technical resistance now at 96.55; Short-term market sentiment seems to have swung in JPY favour; The RBA will continue to try and talk the AUD down; USD/JPY is in sideways trading pattern but reportedly very large stops below 100.70 could get targeted. Most of the short-term indicators are bearish imho and with an […]

This is a very long-term play for me and I will be trying to build on this position in coming months. In very simple terms I’m bullish AUD and bearish CHF and the levels which the cross is currently trading at are historically quite low. The daily chart is starting to obey some basic technical […]

I guess if the EUR/USD is susceptible to a short-squeeze and the AUD/USD is capped by option sellers, then we should consider a contrarian EUR/AUD trade A 5-wave down-move has completed from 1.5540 to 1.4350 and a 38.2% retracement of that move would take us back toward 1.4800. Good risk reward potential for the contrarian […]

Basically I’ve got a CAD/CHF long position which is unlikely to move too far too fast! That suits me fine as I tend to struggle in these choppy sideways markets. USD/CAD should continue to trade sideways in a 1.08/1.10 range before (hopefully for me) breaking lower. USD/CHF looks to be trying to form a base […]

The inability of the market to test levels below 1.0800 and the general USD-bullish sentiment in the market is lessening my conviction on my short USD/CAD trade. I will stick with it nevertheless for now as I got in at reasonable levels and my original analysis that a broad 1.0750/1.1050 sideways consolidation could ensue, looks […]

I’m bullish and now long in USD/CHF. My timing might be off, that’s where we always need a bit of luck. Looking at the technical set-up and the moves in equities and precious metals, I think there is a much greater chance of USD/CHF going up from here than going down. The 200-dma is still […]

99% of the market is now bearish EUR/GBP which does suggest that we may be in for a relief rally; We are hearing increasingly loud rumblings out of Germany that they will seek to contain any extreme ECB easing measures; Option barriers are reported at .8050, and again at .8000; The cable market is long […]

The NZD is still looking a bit soft overall and that is also having an adverse impact on the AUD. Iron ore prices were hit pretty hard yesterday after credit lines were tightened and the continuing unrest in the Ukraine is affecting risk sentiment. AUD/USD is making fresh hourly lows but I remain very firmly […]

I really should have listened to my instinct yesterday when everything was screaming at me that the Yen crosses were set to turn lower. Call it post-BOJ blues or whatever you like, the market is overly short of Yen and due for a squeeze. I’m still well in the money on this trade and as […]

No matter what anyone says, trading does involve an element of luck. When things are really going your way, those ‘flyer’ take-profit orders get executed and then it’s easy to sit on the bid on dips and re-load. My ‘flyer’ order above 172.00 didn’t quite get done and now we are over 100 pips lower. […]

I’ve been short since Monday morning and USD/CAD is again testing last Friday’s lows at 1.0935. Goldman Sachs reckon that support should be very strong at 1.0880 and that bulls remain in control until 1.0840 breaks, so I will be watching those levels with interest. I’ve lowered my stop now to 1.1030 so it will […]

These have been two of the more persistent bear trends in the crosses in recent months but both pairs are starting to show signs that a ‘bottom’ may be in place. AUD/NZD has some sizeable topside potential in my biased opinion and once the current 1.0725/1.0925 consolidation is breached, I’m expecting this pair to regain […]

I’ve got a fixed take profit order at 172.15 on last week’s long position and with EUR/GBP possibly looking to form a base, I think it makes sense to reduce GBP exposure.

I’ve been short this pair for months but the fact that we’ve consistently stalled at a major technical support level near .8150 (61.8% retracement of .7750/.8810) must be taken seriously; I will re-instate if this level is comprehensively broken; I remain long and moderately bullish on cable but we may well see extended consolidation 1.65/1.68 […]