Our proprietary analysis of online and social media sentiment in the major FX pairs shows a disparity between professional and non-professional traders. USD sentiment remains 50:50 with professional traders whilst the bears are clearly in charge at 32:68 amongst the retail trading community. Positioning data does not yet support the sentiment measure in either the

We shall have to wait until later today or early tomorrow to get more accurate information on how the EUR/USD positioning situation has changed over the last week but overall sentiment and ‘noise’ remains relatively muted. After a significant technical break I would expect to be reading much more bullish commentary but the market does

The Clinton email saga continues to impact on the FX market and USD/JPY is the proxy trade for betting on the election result. News that the FBI won’t be pursuing any further action against Hillary Clinton has caused USD/JPY to gap higher on the open, up to highs near 104.30 from a NY close on

I’m expecting a volatile day in USD/JPY ahead of the final weekend polls for the US election. From what I can gather, hedge funds are generally speaking still long of USD/JPY, especially the shorter-term players, and I suspect that they will start bailing out if we get below 102.50. There is still plenty of dip-buying

I’m quite comfortably short USD/JPY with a 100 pip stop above 106.00; if prices get there then I’m wrong. I’ve cut all of my long AUD positions against the USD and the crosses; I remain bullish but I’m not sure on the timing. Gold still looks bullish and EUR/AUD is surely a sell-on-rallies proposition but

I’m still long AUD/USD after buying the ‘dip’ at .7670 yesterday. I’m still comfortable with the position but will try and improve my average by hopefully picking the intraday ranges correctly. Interestingly Morgan Stanley have put out a very bearish strategy on the AUD/USD (“MS looking at short AUD/USD at .7670 on PULSE, sl .7750…target

There has been a lot of AUD and NZD bought in the last week and this mainly real-money demand is starting to have an impact. After last week’s moves in the GBP, we cannot rule out any sort of silly market gaps and I believe that the structural speculative shorts in AUD, NZD and CAD

From a technical perspective, I expect some 600-pip range trading on a medium-term basis roughly between 76.00 and 81.50; Flow wise, there has been a lot of noticeable buying from Japanese real money accounts of both the AUD and NZD in recent weeks; This pair is traditionally one of the favourite ‘risk-off’ plays but with

I know all of us old interbank market dinosaurs will be driving you crazy with our “I told you so’s”, but we did! Whether for regulatory, commercial or technical reasons, the very core of the FX market no longer exists; namely the hundreds of interbank traders who sat at their desks and provided pricing no

The precious metals, the JPY and the GBP have been the main sufferers at the hands of a bouncing USD with the CAD and NZD not far behind.  The EUR and AUD remain strong on the crosses but are also losing a bit of ground against the greenback. The prospect of a Trump presidency is looking

As you all well know, I’m an inveterate contrarian and this trait is currently on show through my short EUR/GBP play from Friday. Unfortunately I do not think that this is a good position and I’m exiting with a slightly bloody nose before I do any more damage. It seems to me that most traders

Analysts, economists and commentators have been having their say for weeks but what are professional traders thinking? BOJ: Short-term risk is still to the downside according to most surveyed, with an almost unanimous expectation that the BOJ will introduce its adjusted policy framework but will be light on policy changes. Perhaps a token 10bps cut,

There has been a perception in the Asian market for decades that the big Japanese corporates somehow had the inside rub on major policy shifts by the BoJ. The idea being that hedging amounts tended to increase or decrease significantly in the lead up to major meetings. Next week’s meeting is looming as a major

There is still a long way to go before the competition ends and as we know in the financial markets, anything can happen. For now at least, we have a young member of the FXWW trader community leading the competition and he’s not showing any signs of nerves. Alfadhalah is typical of the new breed

We are almost 4 weeks into the Axi Trader million-dollar-trader competition and the front-runner Alfadhalah is showing no signs of slowing up. His performance has been quite extraordinary and I will post a more in-depth individual profile soon. The trend-followers have had a lucky break in that the market is in the midst of some

EUR/GBP: Market is short and bearish of EUR but we could see a nasty squeeze heading into the UK election. I prefer to look for dip-buying opportunities and will add aggressively if it starts breaking higher, purely as a short/medium-term (2-3 weeks) play. AUD/NZD: Looks set to break lower. Play from short side whilst 1.0220

I’ve felt for some time that the market has been getting way ahead of itself on the bullish USD front, especially with expectations that we would see a significant rise in interest rates over a short period of time. The Fed seems to be of the same view, namely that the US economy still needs

USD/JPY: Lot of people getting very bullish this pair on the back of potential central bank policy divergence but all we have heard so far is bluster, and no actions to follow it up. Recent history suggests that this pair is in a 100/105 holding range and I’m sticking to this. Cable: Has been the