Category in Trade Ideas

FX Price-Less market: What happened in GBP this morning and why these unwanted liquidity events will continue

I know all of us old interbank market dinosaurs will be driving you crazy with our “I told you so’s”, but we did! Whether for regulatory, commercial or technical reasons, the very core of the FX market no longer exists; namely the hundreds of interbank traders who sat at their desks and provided pricing no

BOJ and Fed: What the professional traders think… and what’s the Outlier

Analysts, economists and commentators have been having their say for weeks but what are professional traders thinking? BOJ: Short-term risk is still to the downside according to most surveyed, with an almost unanimous expectation that the BOJ will introduce its adjusted policy framework but will be light on policy changes. Perhaps a token 10bps cut,

USD/JPY: “Follow the Money” suggests downside risk for USD/JPY ahead of BOJ meeting

There has been a perception in the Asian market for decades that the big Japanese corporates somehow had the inside rub on major policy shifts by the BoJ. The idea being that hedging amounts tended to increase or decrease significantly in the lead up to major meetings. Next week’s meeting is looming as a major

MDT update

We are almost 4 weeks into the Axi Trader million-dollar-trader competition and the front-runner Alfadhalah is showing no signs of slowing up. His performance has been quite extraordinary and I will post a more in-depth individual profile soon. The trend-followers have had a lucky break in that the market is in the midst of some

USD/JPY: Definitely prefer the sell-rally play in short-term

Yen crosses still look liable to deeper falls in my view, led by EUR/JPY but with others like NZD/JPY also looking fragile after massive up-moves. The big level to watch today in EUR/JPY is 136.20. Option-protection and semi-official bids near 101.00 have been very strong indeed but the stops below 100.70 are reportedly massive as

Professional market turning cautiously bullish JPY

I have read a number of quite bullish JPY predictions from major banks over the last few days. Geo-political considerations are the main driver as well as presumedly large long positions amongst Japanese investors in some of the JPY crosses, like GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY in particular. I’m not yet convinced that the market is ready