The short GBP/JPY trade didn’t go anywhere so I’ve jumped ship and changed sides and am now looking at long trades in NZD/USD and NZD/JPY. My main reasoning is the latest IMM data and general information from the hedge fund space, namely that the world and it’s mother is short Kiwi. The great risk-off event

Now that the good news of an agreed Brexit deal is built into the price, we turn our attention to the UK parliament and whether they will vote for or against it. With plenty of political posturing to come, I’m going to speculate that we will start to get some less-positive headlines and I’m going

I’ve been chopped around in recent weeks on the short GBP play but I still feel that the short side offers better risk-reward opportunities. The price action from late last week suggests to me that even if we do get a Brexit deal this week, the rally in GBP will be ‘limited’, ie between 1%-2%.

Like I wrote last week, I am keen to be long EUR/GBP but having reassessed current momentum and activity, I feel that we may have another leg to the downside. I had hoped to see prices bottom out near .8840 and then start to bounce but the fact that prices seem to be consolidating below

Global liquidity conditions were, according to quite a few learned commentators (eg Morris Goldstein 1998 https://econpapers.repec.org/bookchap/iieppress/pa55.htm) a contributing factor in the 1997 Asian financial crisis as well as the 2008 global financial crisis. Now when I read through the interbank research in the FXWW-Messenger chatroom, its all about Repos, TOMOs, POMOs and bills! Credit …

Just having a look at some of the main JPY crosses, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY and whilst they all look suitably bearish given the current risk-off environment, I’m wondering if they aren’t worth a short-term contrarian look with excellent risk-reward on offer. The levels I’m looking at are 129.10-25 for a topside break in GBP/JPY,

With Blackrock, the world’s biggest money manager, reportedly leading the way, the entire funds management community seems to be taking a massive bet against the AUD in particular, and the NZD and CAD to a lesser extent. On the other side is the professional trader community and there I am seeing an overwhelming bias towards

Regardless of whether you are trading equities, cryptos, currencies or futures, there are some analytic criteria which are very objective and others that are more subjective. Length of track record, police and reference checks, or strategy description are criteria which are black and white; you are either in a position to provide them or you

I know we all claim that the very nature of the FX market has been changed radically by the dominance of the Algos but in truth, there have been multiple periods over the last 3 decades when we have ‘enjoyed’ similar market conditions. The market has tended to move reasonable swiftly between levels and then

We have been analysing traders and allocating to them since 2004 and here are some of the conclusions that we have reached: Around 1:880 retail traders is worth considering. Not an overly impressive number but really not surprising when you think that the vast majority of retail traders have had no formal training in the

The great thing about being a sterling trader is that there is never any shortage of volatility. This week is going to be no exception with Friday’s meeting of the Tory party looming as the next big Brexit-based risk event. The party will be voting on the latest plan (if there is one that is!)

The short-term trend remains bearish but I feel that momentum is starting to wane and some short-sterling positioning may have gotten ahead of itself. There are a lot of trading sessions between now and October and many of the shorts will not have the patience to hang on. EUR/GBP is stuck in a broad .86/.89

Our proprietary analysis of online and social media sentiment in the major FX pairs shows a disparity between professional and non-professional traders. USD sentiment remains 50:50 with professional traders whilst the bears are clearly in charge at 32:68 amongst the retail trading community. Positioning data does not yet support the sentiment measure in either the

We shall have to wait until later today or early tomorrow to get more accurate information on how the EUR/USD positioning situation has changed over the last week but overall sentiment and ‘noise’ remains relatively muted. After a significant technical break I would expect to be reading much more bullish commentary but the market does

The Clinton email saga continues to impact on the FX market and USD/JPY is the proxy trade for betting on the election result. News that the FBI won’t be pursuing any further action against Hillary Clinton has caused USD/JPY to gap higher on the open, up to highs near 104.30 from a NY close on

I’m expecting a volatile day in USD/JPY ahead of the final weekend polls for the US election. From what I can gather, hedge funds are generally speaking still long of USD/JPY, especially the shorter-term players, and I suspect that they will start bailing out if we get below 102.50. There is still plenty of dip-buying

I’m quite comfortably short USD/JPY with a 100 pip stop above 106.00; if prices get there then I’m wrong. I’ve cut all of my long AUD positions against the USD and the crosses; I remain bullish but I’m not sure on the timing. Gold still looks bullish and EUR/AUD is surely a sell-on-rallies proposition but

I’m still long AUD/USD after buying the ‘dip’ at .7670 yesterday. I’m still comfortable with the position but will try and improve my average by hopefully picking the intraday ranges correctly. Interestingly Morgan Stanley have put out a very bearish strategy on the AUD/USD (“MS looking at short AUD/USD at .7670 on PULSE, sl .7750…target