The AUD/USD is leading the way again as a new trading week gets underway and those who have missed out on the move might get some more joy by focusing elsewhere. Cable is underdone in my biased view and has some catching up to do. There is always the risk of some Brexit headlines knocking

At risk of repeating myself once too often, I think the market’s reasoning behind buying the USD is deeply flawed and I am looking for opportunities to build medium-term USD shorts against one of the other majors. The move back above 1.10 in EUR/USD is pivotal in my view and I expect to see further

I’ve been getting chopped around a bit over the last couple of weeks with the big Algos seemingly back in charge and tying the market into their beloved ranges. That said, I am seeing nothing to dissuade me from my view that the USD will be taking some big falls in coming months and I

I was very bullish cable to start the week and I’ve obviously been totally wrong on that one. This may be just another stop-loss squeeze but the daily close below 1.2250 has the overall picture looking potentially bearish. I’m stepping aside on cable for now and will await further signals. The AUD/USD has held up well

EUR/JPY is back at levels last seen over 3 years ago and this is putting the other JPY crosses under pressure as well. USD/JPY has been relatively liquid over the last few months, bar a few nasty spikes down and up, which suggests to me that positioning is not at extreme levels and we are

Last week’s AUD trade worked out nicely but let’s not get too carried away with the bear trade; the AUD/USD is still primed for a move to .73/.74 over the next few months and I am hoping to ride the waves on the way there. I have exited my short AUD/JPY trade and am looking

I’ve been playing the AUD from the long side for the last 5-6 weeks but the little Aussie battler is starting to feel quite overbought especially on the crosses. I have exited my AUD/USD longs and am dipping my toes into some short AUD plays, albeit with very tight stops. AUD/JPY is my preferred play

I don’t see anything to change my medium-term macro view that the USD will come under increasing pressure in the months ahead. The market has had another look at the “Euro demise” trade but this got very overcrowded and is starting to unwind after the EZ fiscal stimulus package announcement. AUD/USD is still my favourite play,

Well that is an exceedingly easy question to answer! Experience is showing it’s value with the ex-institutional traders showing (in general) quite exceptional returns over the last 8 weeks. After adjusting for leverage, we are seeing the following average results: Discretionary ex-institutional traders: Average unleveraged returns of 5.6% pm over the last 2 months. We

I’ve started getting back into the swing of the market and it can be advantageous sometimes to spend some time away and become less emotional about levels and directions. What has surprised me is the large number of bank analysts who are very USD bullish in the shortish term. I understand their reasoning, basically they

Like many long-term financial market professionals, my confidence in the fiat system is so strong that I always have a core long position in Gold and Silver bullion!! It’s a matter of time before the day of reckoning comes. Technically speaking, the daily chart has now formed a very strong base near $1350-$1375 and looks

Whilst you have some spare time over the holidays, do yourself a favour and set some aside to listen to a professional bank trader laying out his views on what you really should be looking out for and where the ‘easy’ money is. REGISTER HERE for free access. As with most things, the ‘easy’ option

The start of the week brings lots of interesting research from the major banks (which I’m sure you all love reading in the FXWW chatroom on Eikon Messenger!). There have been some short term changes over the last 3 weeks with AUD positioning back to neutral, CAD longs reduced and GBP longs starting to build.

The short GBP/JPY trade didn’t go anywhere so I’ve jumped ship and changed sides and am now looking at long trades in NZD/USD and NZD/JPY. My main reasoning is the latest IMM data and general information from the hedge fund space, namely that the world and it’s mother is short Kiwi. The great risk-off event

Now that the good news of an agreed Brexit deal is built into the price, we turn our attention to the UK parliament and whether they will vote for or against it. With plenty of political posturing to come, I’m going to speculate that we will start to get some less-positive headlines and I’m going

I’ve been chopped around in recent weeks on the short GBP play but I still feel that the short side offers better risk-reward opportunities. The price action from late last week suggests to me that even if we do get a Brexit deal this week, the rally in GBP will be ‘limited’, ie between 1%-2%.

Like I wrote last week, I am keen to be long EUR/GBP but having reassessed current momentum and activity, I feel that we may have another leg to the downside. I had hoped to see prices bottom out near .8840 and then start to bounce but the fact that prices seem to be consolidating below

Global liquidity conditions were, according to quite a few learned commentators (eg Morris Goldstein 1998 https://econpapers.repec.org/bookchap/iieppress/pa55.htm) a contributing factor in the 1997 Asian financial crisis as well as the 2008 global financial crisis. Now when I read through the interbank research in the FXWW-Messenger chatroom, its all about Repos, TOMOs, POMOs and bills! Credit …