GBP/JPY sitting right on daily trend-line support; EUR/GBP sitting right above very important technical support.

There is a 50% retracement level and an hourly high coming in  at the same level.

Trend-line and a 61.8% retracement level converge near 1.4870 (see chart); If buying this dip, keep stops fairly tight as it is risk-off Friday and some stock-markets are looking very shaky.

EUR/USD is testing trend-line and 61.8% support at 1.3510/15; a clean break would indicate increased momentum. EUR/JPY is testing support near 140.40, a clean break would suggest a topping formation in place.

Asian real money sellers capped the pair on Friday near .8820; Sentiment remains bearish as the market plays it as a ‘Chinese credit bubble’ proxy; Technical target at .8570, a 50% retracement of the big rally from .6050.

One constant for me is the fact that EUR/GBP is headed lower; I’m continuing to trade the downward channel (see chart); Sell rallies towards .8400 looking for .8100.

EUR/AUD is back at longer term median levels near 1.55 (although the daily up-trend remains in place); EUR/GBP is headed back sub-.80 in coming months (imho of course); EUR/JPY as mentioned below, trying to form a topping formation below 143.00; EUR/USD weekly technicals suggest to me that we are more likely to move lower. I […]

Possible topping formation ahead of 143.00 (see chart); Needs break and hold below 140.40 to confirm; Shorts favoured with stops above 143.25.

The macro speculative market is piling into AUD/USD shorts, with .8500 seen now as a foregone conclusion and some starting to talk now of levels below .80 cents. Initial resistance is at previous lows of .8820/25 and a break above there will run into further headwinds near the .8870 breakdown level from earlier today. Sorry, […]

The professional speculative market is quite short of AUD already as a proxy for the ‘China credit bubble’ trade; The daily chart is trying to form a springboard with rising daily lows (see chart); If this base holds again, we could easily see a bounce back up above .9050 as shorts get jittery; Keep stops […]

USD/JPY: Technical resistance at 104.50 and sizeable sell orders at 104.60/65. USD/CAD: Barriers at 1.0975 and 1.1000. USD/CHF: Stops below .8980. EUR/JPY: Strong technical resistance near 143.20.

I don’t have a position in USD/JPY at the moment and therefore my opinion should carry less weight but for what it’s worth, it feels to me that we may get a sharp spike sometime very soon. This will probably take out technical resistance at 105.50 but my trade of the year is still to […]

4-hr chart shows the bull trend still in play but the MAs losing momentum (see chart); Major support should develop now near 1.6250 whilst 1.6600 will attract profit takers in an already-long market; Sentiment remains GBP-positive and I still expect to see increased GBP strength on crosses like EUR/GBP.

Selling the NZD/USD was obviously not a good idea and the break above previous hourly highs at .8320 now opens the way for further gains, although there is still a daily high at .8335 to be taken out before the bulls can rest easier.

Any hopes the bears might have had of a topping formation have been dashed with the break above 142.90.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent! There seems to be no let-up in the market demand for NZD; Next technical resistance of note in NZD/USD is at .8335 (see chart).

Markets remaining very illiquid during holiday period and stop-loss orders make easy pickings; Next technical support in USD/JPY is at the short-term bullish trendline near 104.15/20; Previous highs below there at 103.80/90 should provide even stronger support levels.

The GBP was hit across the board after not-so-impressive economic data; EUR/GBP looks to be in a bear trend channel with current parameters at .8200/.8425; GBP/JPY is in a steep bull trend but pull-backs will also be steep; I remain very bullish on cable but as always it’s a matter of timing the entry levels […]