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EUR shorts squeezed but little change otherwise

Posted on - February 7, 2014 7:20 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The post-ECB price action has seen weak trailing stops taken out in all of the EUR crosses and the only trend in EUR is a non-trend. The market is intent on being bearish but cannot seem to generate any momentum. Does this mean we are due at some stage for a massive sentiment-turning rally? Don’t […]

Weak stops taken out overnight in EUR/USD and EUR/GBP

Posted on - February 6, 2014 7:26 am (Australia/Sydney) |
No major developments overnight and most of the main currency pairs are close to yesterday’s levels. The retail market in particular was sitting a bit short of EUR and tight trailing stops were triggered in EUR/USD above 1.3535 and in EUR/GBP above .8325. I have no strong view on EUR/USD but I’m happy to sell […]

Buy GBP, AUD dips; sell NZD, CAD rallies

Posted on - February 5, 2014 7:28 am (Australia/Sydney) |
EUR/USD is at 1.3515 again today! Can’t see any reason to trade this pair; Cable support above 1.6220 now confirmed and this level should be very important in the short-term; I’m overall bearish still on EUR crosses and bullish on the GBP crosses; Extreme positioning is still the most likely factor to drive the market […]

GBP crosses hit hard as trailing stops kick in; GBP/JPY technical support at 164.00

Posted on - February 4, 2014 7:11 am (Australia/Sydney) |
GBP/JPY was the main mover yesterday driven by a carnage of trailing stops across the board; USD/JPY stops below 101.70 were indeed sizeable, Cable stops post-data were also significant and of course the cross then started falling like a stone once it cleared 167.50. Be aware that there is solid technical support in GBP/JPY near […]

Looking to emerging markets for leads

Posted on - January 27, 2014 7:09 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Good morning all. Plenty of whip-saw movement at the end of last week mainly caused by a huge flight of capital out of emerging markets and continued doubts about China’s growth and 2nd-tier credit system. Articles such as this one from Reuters suggest that the capital flight out of EMs might only be beginning, and […]

Risk sentiment will be main focus for today’s trade

Posted on - January 24, 2014 7:19 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Stock-markets look shaky and USD/JPY got hit by waves of stop-loss selling so we could be in for a nervy risk-off Friday in Asia. AUD/JPY is sitting on important technical support at 90.00 and a clean break below there will surely trigger more stop-loss selling. Pairs like EUR/AUD have made very strong gains in the […]

Big data events looming later today

Posted on - January 14, 2014 6:09 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Most of today’s action was in regional stockmarkets which were up to 3% lower; USD/JPY rallied 50 pips in early trade on reports of a big M&A deal; The NZD was well supported by strong business confidence data; Plenty of big risk events later today with UK CPI and US retail sales (calendar).

Positional adjustment still the name of the game

Posted on - January 14, 2014 7:21 am (Australia/Sydney) |
First things first, if you’re looking for intraday trading ideas then either ignore what I say or even better still, do the opposite! My 3 cheap-n-cheerful ideas from yesterday were all losers so obviously I’m not reading the short-term market very well. The markets’ big GBP longs against the AUD and JPY are presently being […]

Focus remains firmly on the crosses

Posted on - January 10, 2014 7:32 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Significant reports that China was selling NZD/USD in overnight trade near .8270 AUD/NZD support at 1.0730 was tested and held firm; EUR is pretty much unchanged after an ‘as expected’ ECB; GBP remains strong and there seems little need to challenge this trend at the moment; The JPY remains heavily oversold against many other majors […]

Levels to watch in Asian trade, Monday December 16th

Posted on - December 16, 2013 7:59 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Cable: Looks like 1.6240/50 is looming as the big level to watch here and a break below could see many longs bailing out; USD/JPY has had a quiet start to the week and will need to break outside of a 102.95/103.40 range in order to find its next short-term directional bias; The AUD has made […]

USD likely to stay bid through the holiday period

Posted on - December 13, 2013 6:50 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Most of the big recent moves have been in the crosses but the USD is looking increasingly likely to enjoy an end-of-year surge; EUR, GBP and CHF have made strong gains in recent months and could easily enter a period of consolidation; Most of the USD gains have been coming against the AUD and the […]

Recent bullish trends in EUR/JPY, GBP/AUD etc remain in place

Posted on - December 10, 2013 7:25 am (Australia/Sydney) |
EUR, GBP and CHF still in high demand; AUD, JPY, and CAD are still out of favour; Liquidity remains decent but will start to thin out next week at the latest; Today’s economic calendar http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/; I’d suggest buying dips in GBP/JPY today during Asian trade.

Quick wrap of the Asian session

Posted on - December 9, 2013 4:42 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
EUR/USD traded to highs at 1.3748 in very thin early interbank trade; EUR/JPY stops were triggered above technical resistance (61.8% retracement) at 141.00; CHF/JPY continued on its vertical path with no-one quite sure what’s behind it; AUD continued to exhibit weakness on the crosses, led by AUD/NZD and EUR/AUD; AUD recovered for a short while […]

Today’s highlights from the FXWW-Reuters chat-room

Posted on - November 28, 2013 6:25 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Once again apologies to all those awaiting access but we should have it sorted out very soon (as you know, IT stands for Irish Time ). ” Sean Lee FXWW 06:55:51 GBP/AUD continues to accelerate higher and the next target for mine is weekly highs just below 1.8500. GBPAUD= – Screenshot.png GBPAUD= – DesktopObject.xml 07:08:51 AUD/USD […]

Quiet start to interbank trading week

Posted on - November 25, 2013 7:09 am (Australia/Sydney) |
EUR/USD is trading at 1.3550, USD/JPY at 101.30, cable at 1.6230 and AUD/USD is at .9160. All of the focus remains on the crosses with the GBP staying very strong and dragging the EUR along with it whilst the AUD, NZD and JPY are the weaklings amongst the majors. The big level to watch today […]

EUR/JPY: 135.50 still key level amongst major pairs

Posted on - November 19, 2013 6:53 am (Australia/Sydney) |
At first glance, it would seem that very little happened overnight. The EUR has strengthened marginally on the crosses from European opening levels but there is little or no momentum in any direction. EUR/JPY resistance at 135.50 remains a key level and a break above there will certainly change the nature of the market in […]

Quiet start to the interbank trading week

Posted on - November 18, 2013 6:16 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Market remains moderately bullish for USD according to latest CFTC positioning data; Prime brokers report that long USD/JPY is still the speculators favourite position; Market still doesn’t believe the long cable story, making me even more convinced that we go higher; EUR/JPY resistance looming at 135.50 (see chart); Short-term AUD/USD resistance also looming at .9385 […]

AUD/USD: Favours a .9420/.9520 trading range

Posted on - October 31, 2013 8:11 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Previous highs turned pivot at .9520 should offer solid resistance; Sovereign bids expected .9410/20; Crosses look mixed but AUD does seem to be nearing better value levels, especially against the EUR where resistance 1.4560 should be solid (see chart); Minor Australian economic data today, business confidence and building permits; I don’t think the present market […]
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