Category in JPY crosses

EUR/JPY grinding higher, eyeing important resistance at 132.75

This pair has proved to be very resilient in recent times and we are likely to get a test of important technical resistance at 132.75 in coming sessions (see chart). For now I would tend to stick with the range edges and sell into strength but if EUR/USD were to break back above 1.3450 again,

USD/JPY outlook: Trading right at top of wedge formation

Break out of consolidative wedge formation (see chart) should see prices testing 101.40; Hedge funds have been buying heavily again over last 24 hours on divergent CB policies; Recent history suggests caution however as this pair has been in consolidation mode and risk-reward favours shorts with stop above .9910; JPY crosses starting to look bullish

AUD/JPY: Small longs in play as Fibo support holds again

Momentum funds have been selling USD/JPY this morning but stops below 97.00 remain safe for now. Japanese banks have been noted buyers of AUD/USD in recent trade near .9125/30. 38.2% Fibo support in AUD/JPY near 88.70. I’ve taken a small long intraday position near 88.75 with a tight stop below 88.50, looking for 90.00 later

USD/JPY: Underpinned by covering on crosses and rising US yields

Significant optionality reported near 98.50 which should prove magnetic but will also be tough to break through. Rising US yields will be encouraging the dip-buyers to return to USD/JPY. Certain crosses like AUD/JPY have made significant technically bullish moves in last 24 hours. But, prime brokers still reporting sell-rally interest in pairs like GBP/JPY. Looks

AUD/JPY likely to be the key intraday mover

Strong technical resistance at 89.00 in AUD/JPY. AUD positioning remains at extreme short levels, although un-wind seems to have begun against most other majors. Market remains bearish on JPY and will not need much persuasion to buy AUD/JPY under the right conditions. I’d suggest waiting for any technical break to occur and then looking for

AUD/JPY breakdown weakens the case for ‘bottom-picking’ the AUD

More stops have just gone off below 97.00 in USD/JPY and I think this will be a common theme in coming weeks as we gradually head back towards 92.50. The crosses are all looking weak, with cable and AUD/USD also falling today although EUR/USD managed to hold steady. I’m leaving the AUD/USD alone for now,

JPY outlook, Wednesday August 7th

USD/JPY sitting on technical support near 97.50 and we can expect stops below there. China noted seller of USD/JPY yesterday afternoon. AUD/JPY should be interesting with big levels at 87.20/89.00. Macros still have reported selling interest in GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY. BOJ 2-day meeting starts today. I remain short-term bearish on USD/JPY for re-test of 92.50

USD/JPY: Still favour lower, but will stay choppy

No major change to my outlook here, I still think that we will gradually trade lower over coming weeks but we will also find long periods of range trading. Presently we seem to be caught between 97.50 and 100.00 and trading as close as possible to the edges of this range makes good risk-reward sense.