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Longer term JPY positions likely to be tested today

Posted on - January 16, 2015 9:25 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Forget about fundamentals, once the market gets a nasty shock the obvious reaction is to scale back on all open positions and exposure. One of the biggest positions in the market is short JPY and these positions could be tested in today’s conditions. I’m not taking any positions but I’m definitely looking at trading the […]

USD/JPY: Selling rallies preferred in short-term

Posted on - January 13, 2015 9:22 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
My sources tell me that option players are very heavily skewed in USD/JPY and that hedges will need to be increased as we break fresh ground on the downside. Today’s break below 118.00 saw the first batch of sell orders triggered and there could be much more to come. I would not be at all […]

CAD/JPY: Looking to add to shorts on rallies

Posted on - November 28, 2014 7:33 am (Australia/Sydney) |
This pair hasn’t yet had a major reaction to events in the oil market but if/when it turns, there will be a big run for the exits. Even a relatively modest 38.2% retracement of the vertical move from 93 to 105 would take prices back towards 100. CAD/JPY has traditionally been the proxy spot FX […]

CAD/JPY: Easing into market with small short position

Posted on - November 26, 2014 8:37 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
The big fall in oil prices hasn’t washed through into the traditional FX proxy, CAD/JPY, but maybe it still will. The daily chart looks very bullish and it’s certainly hazardous trying to pick a top but I guess we are in a risky business. I’ve sold smalls at 104.48 and will sit and watch for […]

AUD/JPY trading higher in early trade post G-20

Posted on - November 17, 2014 7:12 am (Australia/Sydney) |
USD/JPY is trading above 116.50 in early interbank trade and the AUD/USD is holding steady near .8760 in thin early interbank conditions. The free trade agreement between China and Australia is seen as significantly ‘risk positive’ so it’s little wonder to see the AUD/JPY trading higher. The next major topside technical milestone for the cross […]

Currency wars -Korea will manage Won to move in line with Yen #FXWWchatroom

Posted on - November 6, 2014 3:15 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
The race to the bottom just got even more crowded with Reuters reporting that the Korean vice-finance minister said in parliament that they will manage the KRW to move in line with the weakening Yen. USD/JPY has been crushed almost 100 pips lower from earlier spike highs at 115.40. FXWW chatroom.

Looking for some short-term opportunities in the crosses

Posted on - October 28, 2014 7:42 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The economic calendar will stay light for the next few sessions so we will rely on intraday sentiment/positional swings for some volatility. USD/JPY has found a resistance level at 108.30; Oil prices slipped again overnight which will put pressure on pairs like CAD/JPY; CAD/JPY support/resistance levels at 95.10/96.00 intraday and might be worth trading with […]

EUR/JPY: Nasty turnaround catches shorts unawares

Posted on - October 23, 2014 7:29 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
The early EUR sell-off into early Europe had me thinking I was right only for the PMI numbers to set off a batch of very nasty short covering. There were obviously plenty of trailing stops above 135.80 in EUR/JPY judging by the speed of the move through there. Next resistance is nearby at 136.25/30. If […]

Trade of the Day, Thursday October 23rd: Looking to sell EUR/JPY

Posted on - October 23, 2014 8:20 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Markets are still pretty choppy and there don’t seem to be any dominant factors influencing the major currencies. Commodities remain influential, with the oil market still looking nervy (and likely to affect Yen crosses) but Gold trying to form a significant base; Bond markets haven’t had much information to go on and are in holding space […]

GPIF news will have significant impact on Yen

Posted on - October 20, 2014 8:40 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Reuters are reporting the following: According to sources, the Japan government pension fund (GPIF) – the world’s biggest with a 1.2trln USD war chest – is being urged to cut low yielding JGB holdings and increase their equity holdings from 12% to around 25% in order to boost returns. The proposal is for the GPIF […]

AUD/JPY: Looking bit ‘bottomy’ on short-term charts

Posted on - October 17, 2014 8:04 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Whilst the recent trend has at times been violently bearish, and it is risk-off Friday as well, the short-term charts are disagreeing and look a bit oversold to my contrarian eye. I’m pretty sure that we will get some movement here today and I’m thinking of starting small with a mild bullish bias whilst the […]

Back to the good old days of intraday volatility

Posted on - October 17, 2014 7:43 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Well here’s hoping at least. Price action over the last 24 hours has really taken me back in time. We had wild swings up and down in virtually every pair and we were spoilt for choice regarding which pairs to trade. The main questions for me were regarding the USD and the JPY crosses but […]

CAD/JPY still the FX market’s favourite ‘oil price’ play

Posted on - October 15, 2014 7:58 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Oil prices have been falling very heavily in recent weeks and the FX market’s favourite proxy trade for crude is CAD/JPY; one economy heavily reliant on oil exports and the other heavily reliant on oil imports. This pair is over 4% lower in the last 2 weeks and we are fast approaching important technical support […]

FX market focus remains on the JPY crosses

Posted on - October 15, 2014 7:29 am (Australia/Sydney) |
There were plenty of reports in the chatroom on Monday morning of large stop-loss orders on the down-side in the JPY crosses and it looks like the first part of this week has been spent trying to trigger these orders. GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY look to have been two of the bigger movers. Whilst there is […]

JPY crosses: Profit taking and trailing stops

Posted on - October 2, 2014 6:58 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The professional market has been short JPY across the board and we saw some hefty profit taking emerge yesterday after the over-stretch to take out 110.00 USD/JPY barriers couldn’t be maintained. Other pairs like GBP/JPY broke out of holding patterns and triggered heavy trailing stops. In the shorter-term, I prefer selling any 50/60 pip rallies […]

JPY crosses open slightly higher after G20 weekend

Posted on - September 22, 2014 7:02 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The lack of any currency-related comment from the G20 weekend will be seen by the market as being moderately JPY negative. The global economy has other things on its mind apart from Japanese monetary policy. The JPY crosses are slightly higher compared to the NY close from Friday, but movements are very modest in the […]

It’s Friday! JPY crosses again the focus for Asia

Posted on - August 29, 2014 8:00 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The market has been trying to get bullish on USD/JPY for the last few weeks but the overall range-trading bias seems to be winning the day again. I suspect that the speculative market is still long USD/JPY and some of the JPY crosses, and seeing as its Friday (usually risk-off in Asia) we may see […]

JPY crosses: Failure to rally after GPIF headlines suggests downside risk

Posted on - August 8, 2014 7:52 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Yesterday afternoon’s headlines that the GPIF would increase allocations to Japanese stocks only caused a brief flurry in the JPY crosses; The fact that most pairs are slightly lower today suggests to me that the market is turning bearish albeit very slowly; USD/JPY remains stuck in range trading mode between massive buy/sell interests; ‘Risk-off’ Friday […]
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