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GPIF news will have significant impact on Yen

Posted on - October 20, 2014 8:40 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Reuters are reporting the following: According to sources, the Japan government pension fund (GPIF) – the world’s biggest with a 1.2trln USD war chest – is being urged to cut low yielding JGB holdings and increase their equity holdings from 12% to around 25% in order to boost returns. The proposal is for the GPIF […]

AUD/JPY: Looking bit ‘bottomy’ on short-term charts

Posted on - October 17, 2014 8:04 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Whilst the recent trend has at times been violently bearish, and it is risk-off Friday as well, the short-term charts are disagreeing and look a bit oversold to my contrarian eye. I’m pretty sure that we will get some movement here today and I’m thinking of starting small with a mild bullish bias whilst the […]

Back to the good old days of intraday volatility

Posted on - October 17, 2014 7:43 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Well here’s hoping at least. Price action over the last 24 hours has really taken me back in time. We had wild swings up and down in virtually every pair and we were spoilt for choice regarding which pairs to trade. The main questions for me were regarding the USD and the JPY crosses but […]

CAD/JPY still the FX market’s favourite ‘oil price’ play

Posted on - October 15, 2014 7:58 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Oil prices have been falling very heavily in recent weeks and the FX market’s favourite proxy trade for crude is CAD/JPY; one economy heavily reliant on oil exports and the other heavily reliant on oil imports. This pair is over 4% lower in the last 2 weeks and we are fast approaching important technical support […]

FX market focus remains on the JPY crosses

Posted on - October 15, 2014 7:29 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There were plenty of reports in the chatroom on Monday morning of large stop-loss orders on the down-side in the JPY crosses and it looks like the first part of this week has been spent trying to trigger these orders. GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY look to have been two of the bigger movers. Whilst there is […]

JPY crosses: Profit taking and trailing stops

Posted on - October 2, 2014 6:58 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The professional market has been short JPY across the board and we saw some hefty profit taking emerge yesterday after the over-stretch to take out 110.00 USD/JPY barriers couldn’t be maintained. Other pairs like GBP/JPY broke out of holding patterns and triggered heavy trailing stops. In the shorter-term, I prefer selling any 50/60 pip rallies […]

JPY crosses open slightly higher after G20 weekend

Posted on - September 22, 2014 7:02 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The lack of any currency-related comment from the G20 weekend will be seen by the market as being moderately JPY negative. The global economy has other things on its mind apart from Japanese monetary policy. The JPY crosses are slightly higher compared to the NY close from Friday, but movements are very modest in the […]

It’s Friday! JPY crosses again the focus for Asia

Posted on - August 29, 2014 8:00 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The market has been trying to get bullish on USD/JPY for the last few weeks but the overall range-trading bias seems to be winning the day again. I suspect that the speculative market is still long USD/JPY and some of the JPY crosses, and seeing as its Friday (usually risk-off in Asia) we may see […]

JPY crosses: Failure to rally after GPIF headlines suggests downside risk

Posted on - August 8, 2014 7:52 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Yesterday afternoon’s headlines that the GPIF would increase allocations to Japanese stocks only caused a brief flurry in the JPY crosses; The fact that most pairs are slightly lower today suggests to me that the market is turning bearish albeit very slowly; USD/JPY remains stuck in range trading mode between massive buy/sell interests; ‘Risk-off’ Friday […]

JPY crosses: I still prefer the downside in the short-term

Posted on - July 25, 2014 9:39 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I’m not expecting any massive moves but with EUR/JPY looking decidedly toppy, and with heavy longs in pairs like NZD/JPY and GBP/JPY starting to exit the market, I’m still solidly in the bear camp for the short-term at least. Selling straight USD/JPY is probably the least risky way of playing this but pairs like CAD/JPY […]

Professional market turning cautiously bullish JPY

Posted on - July 21, 2014 11:38 am (Australia/Sydney) | 5 Comments
I have read a number of quite bullish JPY predictions from major banks over the last few days. Geo-political considerations are the main driver as well as presumedly large long positions amongst Japanese investors in some of the JPY crosses, like GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY in particular. I’m not yet convinced that the market is ready […]

JPY crosses still looking soft

Posted on - July 17, 2014 2:42 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Regional stockmarkets are lower this afternoon and the JPY crosses are still looking most likely to get the FX market moving. NZD/JPY is sitting on it’s 50-dma at 88.05 and a break below here could accelerate momentum.  

AUD/JPY: Stay short for now, reverse on bigger dips

Posted on - July 17, 2014 7:41 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Very solid technical resistance now at 96.55; Short-term market sentiment seems to have swung in JPY favour; The RBA will continue to try and talk the AUD down; USD/JPY is in sideways trading pattern but reportedly very large stops below 100.70 could get targeted. Most of the short-term indicators are bearish imho and with an […]

CAD/JPY: Important support levels nearby 94.10/20

Posted on - July 14, 2014 9:37 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There are some very important technical support levels close by in the CAD/JPY, one of last week’s biggest movers. Technicals don’t work very well in momentum-less markets but with 4 support points roughly around 94.10/20, it’s definitely worth watching.

EUR/JPY: Should be main focus during Asian trade

Posted on - July 11, 2014 7:40 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There were a few scares running through the EUR over the last 24 hours; Global equity markets ran scared for a while after developments in Portugal; Bad news begets bad news, and there was also talk that Greece had only partially placed a 3-year bond. As we know, in the FX markets it’s extreme positioning […]

AUD/JPY: Strong technical case for bears now emerging

Posted on - July 10, 2014 7:35 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
It’s hard to get too carried away by any movements in the markets based on recent experiences but the AUD/JPY set-up is looking decidedly bearish. There is a potential double-top forming just above a 50% retracement level and short-term bearish momentum will pick up with the break below daily lows at 95.25 as well as […]

USD preferred ahead of EUR and JPY in medium-term

Posted on - July 2, 2014 8:46 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Plenty of people asking me about the big pairs, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, as this is what they are used to trading and they find it difficult to start concentrating on the crosses. USD/JPY: Positioning has not been a major issue with this pair for some months now. Central bank policy is the main driver and […]

GBP/JPY: Likely to grab much of the focus during Asian trade

Posted on - June 20, 2014 8:23 am (Australia/Sydney) | 5 Comments
If anything happens during the Asian session then it’s likely to be in cross pairs like GBP/JPY. There is some very important technical resistance between 173.60/174.85 and we are just starting to sneak inside of this resistance band. The market is already long of this pair so the temptation will be to book profits if […]
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