Posted on - August 29, 2014 8:00 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The market has been trying to get bullish on USD/JPY for the last few weeks but the overall range-trading bias seems to be winning the day again. I suspect that the speculative market is still long USD/JPY and some of the JPY crosses, and seeing as its Friday (usually risk-off in Asia) we may see […]
Posted on - August 8, 2014 7:52 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Yesterday afternoon’s headlines that the GPIF would increase allocations to Japanese stocks only caused a brief flurry in the JPY crosses; The fact that most pairs are slightly lower today suggests to me that the market is turning bearish albeit very slowly; USD/JPY remains stuck in range trading mode between massive buy/sell interests; ‘Risk-off’ Friday […]
Posted on - July 25, 2014 9:39 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m not expecting any massive moves but with EUR/JPY looking decidedly toppy, and with heavy longs in pairs like NZD/JPY and GBP/JPY starting to exit the market, I’m still solidly in the bear camp for the short-term at least. Selling straight USD/JPY is probably the least risky way of playing this but pairs like CAD/JPY […]
Posted on - July 21, 2014 11:38 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I have read a number of quite bullish JPY predictions from major banks over the last few days. Geo-political considerations are the main driver as well as presumedly large long positions amongst Japanese investors in some of the JPY crosses, like GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY in particular. I’m not yet convinced that the market is ready […]
Posted on - July 17, 2014 2:42 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Regional stockmarkets are lower this afternoon and the JPY crosses are still looking most likely to get the FX market moving. NZD/JPY is sitting on it’s 50-dma at 88.05 and a break below here could accelerate momentum.
Posted on - July 17, 2014 7:41 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Very solid technical resistance now at 96.55; Short-term market sentiment seems to have swung in JPY favour; The RBA will continue to try and talk the AUD down; USD/JPY is in sideways trading pattern but reportedly very large stops below 100.70 could get targeted. Most of the short-term indicators are bearish imho and with an […]
Posted on - July 14, 2014 9:37 am (Australia/Sydney) |
There are some very important technical support levels close by in the CAD/JPY, one of last week’s biggest movers. Technicals don’t work very well in momentum-less markets but with 4 support points roughly around 94.10/20, it’s definitely worth watching.
Posted on - July 11, 2014 7:40 am (Australia/Sydney) |
There were a few scares running through the EUR over the last 24 hours; Global equity markets ran scared for a while after developments in Portugal; Bad news begets bad news, and there was also talk that Greece had only partially placed a 3-year bond. As we know, in the FX markets it’s extreme positioning […]
Posted on - July 10, 2014 7:35 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
It’s hard to get too carried away by any movements in the markets based on recent experiences but the AUD/JPY set-up is looking decidedly bearish. There is a potential double-top forming just above a 50% retracement level and short-term bearish momentum will pick up with the break below daily lows at 95.25 as well as […]
Posted on - July 2, 2014 8:46 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Plenty of people asking me about the big pairs, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, as this is what they are used to trading and they find it difficult to start concentrating on the crosses. USD/JPY: Positioning has not been a major issue with this pair for some months now. Central bank policy is the main driver and […]
Posted on - June 20, 2014 8:23 am (Australia/Sydney) |
If anything happens during the Asian session then it’s likely to be in cross pairs like GBP/JPY. There is some very important technical resistance between 173.60/174.85 and we are just starting to sneak inside of this resistance band. The market is already long of this pair so the temptation will be to book profits if […]
Posted on - June 16, 2014 10:04 am (Australia/Sydney) |
There have been a number of reports this morning of increased fighting around Baghdad airport and any escalation in violence will certainly impact on the oil price and and ‘heavy positioning’ in the FX market. Most of the big oil production is in the south of Iraq so we should not see a massive impact […]
Posted on - June 13, 2014 3:01 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
The BOJ policy statement shows that they will continue along the same policy path for the foreseeable future, making the Yen an obvious choice as a funding currency for carry trade players. Whether to choose the JPY, EUR or USD as a funding currency is now really a matter of personal choice. GBP/JPY is starting to […]
Posted on - June 10, 2014 7:52 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The oil price jumped last night on the back of reports that Libyan exports are now close to zero. Coming on the back of decent Chinese economic data, shorts were forced to cover and we ended the day with an almost 2% price rise. The traditional oil-proxy trade in the FX market is the Yen, […]
Posted on - May 21, 2014 6:54 am (Australia/Sydney) |
We saw a lot of professional traders buying puts in pairs like EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY yesterday amid increasing speculation that the BOJ might be a little less hawkish than usual. Some are suggesting that the hard-line inflation target will be downplayed. Large stops are still in place in USD/JPY directly below 101.05, where the big […]
Posted on - May 20, 2014 4:22 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
It seems that some bigger professional speculators are of the opinion that the BOJ will do absolutely nothing tomorrow and there is even chatter that they will move away from their hardline inflation target. Short-dated downside puts in AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY are the main vehicles being used to play this view.
Posted on - May 19, 2014 4:13 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
There still seem to be some large bids ahead of 101.20 but all I’m hearing about is the large stops sub-101.15. If they go off then they will also have a big impact on the Yen crosses as dealers scramble to cover wherever they can.
Posted on - May 9, 2014 8:35 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I think it’s pretty safe to assume that the market is quite long of GBP/JPY and we may see some profit taking ahead of the weekend. USD/JPY resistance at 101.90/95 held nicely yesterday and of course cable has been stalled ahead of 1.70. Watching intraday brief here but with a definite bearish bias.