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GBP opens firmer after weekend comments from MPC member

Posted on - February 16, 2015 7:29 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Martin Weale said Sunday he expects interest rates in the UK to rise quicker than financial markets are currently predicting. Cable has traded to highs near 1.5430 in early interbank trade after closing last week near 1.5390.

Cable: Playing from long side for now

Posted on - January 15, 2015 7:21 am (Australia/Sydney) |
There are still plenty of very bearish recommendations coming from the big banks but the price action to me looks moderately ‘bottomy’ and I’m happy to play from the long side now and will maintain this whilst prices stay above 1.5150. If we can break back above 1.5300 significantly, then we should see a fairly […]

GBP looking fragile across the board

Posted on - January 7, 2015 6:48 am (Australia/Sydney) |
A market always looks like it’s most bearish at the bottom but it would be a brave person who would go limit long GBP right now. EUR/GBP: Despite a very bearish EUR, this pair has started to bounce again off major technical support at .7750 and perhaps the market is simply short enough already? All […]

EUR/GBP: Sticking with short position for now

Posted on - November 28, 2014 8:03 am (Australia/Sydney) |
It’s the end of the month which usually means that the Buba will buy their big tranche of EUR/GBP, so this is something for shorts like me to be wary of. The falling oil price usually affects the GBP to a modest degree, another factor to keep in mind. I haven’t traded this position very […]

Switching long cable into short EUR/GBP position

Posted on - November 24, 2014 9:59 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m still of the view that cable will bottom out sometime soon but whether that’s at 1.5600 or 1.5450, I really cannot tell. EUR/USD looks terrible and with the ECB flagging more easing measures, the downside pressure is only going to increase. I missed the boat on Friday afternoon and we are now significantly lower, […]

Cable: Short-term levels becoming obvious, 1.5590/1.5730

Posted on - November 20, 2014 7:16 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Prices have bottomed out on 2 occasions now near 1.5590 whilst 1.5720/30 has proven to be solid resistance on the topside. I’m maintaining my bullish bias for now and at least it’s becoming very clear where my stop-loss order should be! I will continue to build my long position inside of this range and hope […]

Cable: Hanging onto long position for now

Posted on - November 19, 2014 7:21 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Prices are back near my entry levels and the sideways price action in cable is starting to look consolidative (and therefore bearish). EUR/GBP has been the main problem with short positions starting to reduce or exit completely. The SNB support in EUR/CHF should be bearish for EUR/GBP (as they sanitise their EUR purchases) but as […]

Cable: Long position looking more secure

Posted on - November 17, 2014 1:43 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I started building a long position on Friday and managed to get into the market at some favourable levels, albeit with a fairly small position. I’m hoping that the market will consolidate now above 1.5650 and that we get an initial sharp short-covering rally towards 1.5950. I will look to trade the edges of this […]

Cable: Looking to start building long position again

Posted on - November 14, 2014 10:27 am (Australia/Sydney) |
My long-term macro view remains unchanged, namely that we should be buying GBP and the commodity currencies and selling the Yen, EUR and the USD. The market has gone from bearish USD, to primarily bearish EUR and JPY, but I see this as being different to being wholly USD bullish. The turn in USD/JPY has […]

Cable: Getting close to interesting levels

Posted on - November 13, 2014 6:55 am (Australia/Sydney) |
As a definite non-believer in the current USD rally, I’ve been biding my time and waiting for for a good entry level back into cable longs. There is strong technical support at 1.5720 and that is the level I’m watching. GBP/JPY also has decent short-term support near 181.00, which will also provide clues as to […]

Cable: Long term bullish and happy to buy dips to 1.5720

Posted on - November 7, 2014 7:55 am (Australia/Sydney) |
My best trade of the year by a long way was my long cable trade and I’m willing to start dipping my toes back in this water on any dips back towards strong technical support around 1.5720. EUR/GBP is consolidating near its recent lows and still looking heavy whilst GBP/JPY has caught an updraught in […]

EUR/GBP: Still long, let’s see what price action is like at .7900

Posted on - October 8, 2014 8:13 am (Australia/Sydney) |
When I’m having a ‘slow’ run in the market, I often revert to trading some slower moving crosses like AUD/NZD or EUR/GBP, just to regain a bit of confidence. I don’t take big positions or go for ‘home run’ hits, I’m merely trying to get my mojo back. Currently I’m running a small long position […]

EUR/GBP: Long trade looking good, more short covering ahead of the weekend

Posted on - October 3, 2014 6:48 am (Australia/Sydney) |
My EUR/GBP long from yesterday is 50 pips in the money and hopefully I will get a chance to build a decent position over coming days. I only had a moderate starting position as my recent trading record hasn’t been great, but if we get a significant short squeeze in this cross then my lean […]

Sticking to the crosses for some shorter-term opportunities

Posted on - October 1, 2014 9:24 am (Australia/Sydney) |
My longer-term fundamental view remains unchanged, the EUR, JPY and USD will struggle amid CB easy-ness and the commodity currencies will strengthen over time. The market has started buying USD in the mistaken belief that the Fed will significantly change its policy direction. We will see small changes, but no directional change. This is probably […]

Cable: Fresh short-term lows mean bulls will have to wait another while

Posted on - September 30, 2014 7:30 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Nice try earlier from the cable to break above technical resistance at 1.6280/90 but the nasty move lower in EUR/NOK caught the overall market unawares and that’s had a knock-on effect on the GBP as well. Fresh short-term lows have been printed below 1.6200 and more downside looks like the most likely short-term outcome.

Cable: I’m getting tempted to buy again

Posted on - September 30, 2014 7:45 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The one currency which seems most likely to appreciate quickly once the USD bulls get tired is the GBP, in my view. There hasn’t been too much of a bounce thus far in cable but I have been on the look-out for a short-term base to form. The price action above 1.6200 will be giving […]

Cable: Longs preferred for move back towards 1.6475

Posted on - September 26, 2014 8:03 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I tend to favour the range-trading consolidation theory for cable in the short-term, as it comes to grip with the post-referendum world. The GBP still looks good on the crosses with EUR/GBP looking likely to test important levels near .7750, so all it will take for the cable to rally is for the USD bulls […]

GBP/CAD: Nasty reversal after failure to trigger stops above 1.8200

Posted on - September 25, 2014 7:33 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I mentioned those stops yesterday above 1.8200 in GBP/CAD and the market had a real go at trying to trigger them during European trade. As can be seen from the subsequent down-move, stop-triggering can also be a dangerous practice and I’m sure some dealers were left sitting on large longs at the top of the […]
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