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Sticking to the crosses for some shorter-term opportunities

Posted on - October 1, 2014 9:24 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
My longer-term fundamental view remains unchanged, the EUR, JPY and USD will struggle amid CB easy-ness and the commodity currencies will strengthen over time. The market has started buying USD in the mistaken belief that the Fed will significantly change its policy direction. We will see small changes, but no directional change. This is probably […]

Cable: Fresh short-term lows mean bulls will have to wait another while

Posted on - September 30, 2014 7:30 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Nice try earlier from the cable to break above technical resistance at 1.6280/90 but the nasty move lower in EUR/NOK caught the overall market unawares and that’s had a knock-on effect on the GBP as well. Fresh short-term lows have been printed below 1.6200 and more downside looks like the most likely short-term outcome.

Cable: I’m getting tempted to buy again

Posted on - September 30, 2014 7:45 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
The one currency which seems most likely to appreciate quickly once the USD bulls get tired is the GBP, in my view. There hasn’t been too much of a bounce thus far in cable but I have been on the look-out for a short-term base to form. The price action above 1.6200 will be giving […]

Cable: Longs preferred for move back towards 1.6475

Posted on - September 26, 2014 8:03 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I tend to favour the range-trading consolidation theory for cable in the short-term, as it comes to grip with the post-referendum world. The GBP still looks good on the crosses with EUR/GBP looking likely to test important levels near .7750, so all it will take for the cable to rally is for the USD bulls […]

GBP/CAD: Nasty reversal after failure to trigger stops above 1.8200

Posted on - September 25, 2014 7:33 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I mentioned those stops yesterday above 1.8200 in GBP/CAD and the market had a real go at trying to trigger them during European trade. As can be seen from the subsequent down-move, stop-triggering can also be a dangerous practice and I’m sure some dealers were left sitting on large longs at the top of the […]

Cable: Price action feels bullish

Posted on - September 24, 2014 8:44 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
I should temper that by saying that we need to be very careful with our entry levels, as seen by the nasty 80 pip dip yesterday during early European trade. Overall the GBP looks to be coming back into favour, especially on the crosses, so buying dips on cable makes sense to me. I’d suggest […]

GBP: Mixed signals, neutral bias

Posted on - September 23, 2014 7:52 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
EUR/GBP is definitely still in a strong bearish trend and levels between .75.77 look highly likely in coming weeks. But do I want to start opening short positions at .7850? Certainly not. Sell rallies for sure on all time-frames but there still could be some back-lash from the sometimes acrimonious referendum vote. The USD is […]

GBP starting to settle now that result is becoming clear

Posted on - September 19, 2014 2:31 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The 54:46 YouGov prediction from earlier today looks very likely to come true and the GBP has begun to settle down after a 150 pip run higher against most of the other majors. Will it be a case of ‘buy the rumour sell the fact’? Cable has butted its nose against 1.6520 on at least […]

Last YouGov prediction: 54% No, 46% Yes

Posted on - September 19, 2014 7:32 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Cable is back above 1.6400 as vote-counting commences.

GBP: No vote looking very very likely

Posted on - September 19, 2014 6:42 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The GBP has continued to recover over the last 12 hours and the No-to-independence vote looks certain to prevail. There are unlikely to be any major news developments for the next 5/6 hours (polls close shortly) but we can still expect the GBP to trade skittishly. Keep a close eye on the ticker tape. If […]

GBP: Was Betfair election pay-out just a marketing exercise

Posted on - September 18, 2014 5:27 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There is some suggestion in the marketplace that the Betfair early pay-out on the Scottish independence referendum was done more out of marketing reasons than on any voting conviction. Pretty good piece of marketing if that was the case! GBP has rallied strongly especially against the EUR and JPY in recent sessions on the presumption […]

GBP: Best avoided today unless you are a professional GBP trader

Posted on - September 18, 2014 7:52 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
The Scottish referendum voting booths will open in about 12 hours time and we can expect plenty of volatility in the GBP. My sense is that a No-to independence vote is pretty much built in and the market is happy to try buying GBP/USD at levels close to 1.60. This suggests that the market might […]

Poll rumours sending GBP all over place

Posted on - September 10, 2014 7:03 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The latest rumours on Twitter are suggesting some sensational new poll results putting the pro-independence side at 54%. Stops getting triggered in EUR/GBP above .8040.

“It’s never too late to sell Sterling”

Posted on - September 8, 2014 7:15 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 6 Comments
Well so the old market adage goes. The pound continues to look very weak and susceptible to further falls and until we start seeing decent 100/150 pip bounces, there seems little point in trying to pick the bottom. Plus, if EUR/GBP breaks above .8050, we could see some of the bigger macro players start to […]

EUR/GBP: Buy short-term dips, sell medium-term rallies

Posted on - September 8, 2014 12:01 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I also do not like uncertainty, just like most traders, and a Scottisk vote to leave the UK would certainly introduce a huge level of uncertainty into the value of the GBP on FX markets. We have 10 days to go before the vote and we are likely to see some large swings dependent on […]

EUR/GBP: Resistance levels near .8035 holding for now

Posted on - September 8, 2014 7:11 am (Australia/Sydney) | 3 Comments
There was a nasty gap lower in the cable on the interbank open, with first prices quoted below 1.6200 after a close on Friday at 1.6325. There will be some very nasty ‘slippage’ reports this morning, but some profit orders will get pleasant surprises. The next level to watch in EUR/GBP will be a series […]

GBP set for rocky Monday opening after latest Scottish polls

Posted on - September 7, 2014 8:57 am (Australia/Sydney) | 5 Comments
We can forget about Fibos and fundamentals tomorrow morning, it will be all about positioning after the latest surprising poll results on Scottish independence. Bloomberg is reporting the results of latest polls putting the “Yes” campaign for separation from Britain now at 51% . I’d expect to see some heavy stops in cable below 1.6250/70 […]

EUR/GBP: Shorts preferred for .7870 test

Posted on - September 5, 2014 8:28 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
I prefer this pair in the short-term to others like EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD for the simple reason that cable has moved to some degree alongside the EUR/USD whilst AUD/USD and USD/CAD have moved slightly counter the main market trend. Hope that makes sense, but to an old cross trader like me, EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD feel […]
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