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Is Trading 100% Psychology?

Posted on - October 24, 2014 11:49 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
People get exactly what they want out of the markets. Most people are afraid of success or failure. As a result, they tend to resist change and continue to follow their natural biases and lose in the markets. When you get rid of the fear, you tend to get rid of the biases.—Van K. Tharp, […]

AUD/USD: Sideways pattern likely to break soon

Posted on - October 24, 2014 7:48 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
AUD/USD has been trading in a wedge formation all week and the parameters are pretty tight now at .8735/.8810 approx. The AUD has made strong gains on some of the crosses this week (AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, AUD/GBP) but the USD is also very strong so it’s still a bit of a coin toss in my opinion […]

Markets staying choppy but USD strength still main trend

Posted on - October 24, 2014 7:43 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
USD/JPY made a strong break higher yesterday, taking out heavy sell orders near 107.50 and proving that the market still has plenty of appetite to buy this pair. The USD also made strong gains against the NZD and whilst the other majors were choppy, the bullish USD trend remains the strongest lead in the market. […]

EUR/JPY: Nasty turnaround catches shorts unawares

Posted on - October 23, 2014 7:29 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
The early EUR sell-off into early Europe had me thinking I was right only for the PMI numbers to set off a batch of very nasty short covering. There were obviously plenty of trailing stops above 135.80 in EUR/JPY judging by the speed of the move through there. Next resistance is nearby at 136.25/30. If […]

NZD falls heavily after CPI data

Posted on - October 23, 2014 9:35 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Q3 CPI came in at 0.3% QoQ which was well below expectations. The NZD/USD is 100 pips lower since NZ opened this morning. Next support levels are around .7820 and I’m sure there will be some stale shorts out there who will be availing of this significant dip.

Trade of the Day, Thursday October 23rd: Looking to sell EUR/JPY

Posted on - October 23, 2014 8:20 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Markets are still pretty choppy and there don’t seem to be any dominant factors influencing the major currencies. Commodities remain influential, with the oil market still looking nervy (and likely to affect Yen crosses) but Gold trying to form a significant base; Bond markets haven’t had much information to go on and are in holding space […]

AUD/USD: Cutting long position due to lack of activity

Posted on - October 22, 2014 5:55 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I’ve been long all week and the market is 30 pips higher! My general market timing has been very poor in recent weeks so I’m exiting this trade and will reassess. This is a ‘hope’ rather than ‘conviction’ trade and they usually turn sour in my experience. I’ve really got no strong views so back […]

Plenty of big data releases today, Wednesday October 22nd

Posted on - October 22, 2014 7:20 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Australian CPI is expected to increase at a rate of 0.5% QoQ. The AUD/USD is consolidating in a 50 pip range around .8800 and I remain of the view that a bullish break is more likely. AUD/JPY is also stuck in neutral after some bullish/bearish events in recent days. Bank of England minutes from the […]

Gold: Macro shorts unlikely to panic just yet

Posted on - October 21, 2014 6:21 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The Swiss Government and National Bank have certainly not been in favour of a referendum on Gold reserves, but this looks likely to happen in late November and is a chance of passing. This would prohibit the SNB from selling any more Gold reserves and would force them to up their Gold reserves significantly. We […]

Concerns emerging over GPIF equity weighting change

Posted on - October 21, 2014 3:48 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Stops below 106.50 were triggered in USD/JPY as concerns emerge over exactly how the GPIF equity weighting change will play out. The Nikkei is over 1.5% lower and US treasury yields are also lower #FXWWchatroom

AUD/USD: Still long- .8850 looks to be crucial level

Posted on - October 21, 2014 3:20 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
I’m happy to stick with my long position from yesterday but gains from here through .8850 are expected to be hard fought indeed. Interbank sources are reporting decent selling interest between .8825/50. That said, stop-loss buy orders above .8850 are likely to be very heavy so I will stick with the long trade ands see […]

How to trade what’s in-front of you with market types: A technical lesson

Posted on - October 21, 2014 1:48 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
You know the saying “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results”? Van Tharp (A Market Wizard – yep, they are a real thing) has a new definition for traders: “Expecting the same system to work in all market types is the definition of insanity” So as a follow up […]

Looks like it should be a rangey, quiet session in Asia

Posted on - October 21, 2014 7:36 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
USD/JPY ran into decent selling interest yesterday near 107.35, which is unsurprising given that it had rallied 200 pips off last week’s lows. The other main Yen crosses have basically held onto their gains as the USD weakened moderately across the board. The GPIF news from the weekend is still very relevant for the Yen […]

For those who still haven’t had a free trial in the FXWW chatroom on Reuters Messenger………..

Posted on - October 20, 2014 10:06 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
If you like plenty of bank research and analysis, then you will love the FXWW chatroom. If you haven’t trialled it before, then go to http://www.fxww.com/chatroom-trial/. For more detailed information, go to http://www.fxww.com/fxww-product/chatroom/. We can only manage a limited number at a time, so it will be a case of first-come-first-served for the first 20 triallists.

AUD/USD: Playing from long side to start the week

Posted on - October 20, 2014 8:54 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
GPIF news from the weekend will have an impact on AUD/JPY sentiment; There is still expected to be some residual interest from Sovereign players to buy AUD/USD for bond issuances; Charts show short-term consolidation between .8650/.8850. The market has opened around .8760 this morning and I’m playing this pair with a bullish bias.

GPIF news will have significant impact on Yen

Posted on - October 20, 2014 8:40 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Reuters are reporting the following: According to sources, the Japan government pension fund (GPIF) – the world’s biggest with a 1.2trln USD war chest – is being urged to cut low yielding JGB holdings and increase their equity holdings from 12% to around 25% in order to boost returns. The proposal is for the GPIF […]

JPY crosses again the focus of volatility

Posted on - October 20, 2014 8:01 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Jittery stock-markets and tumbling commodity prices ensured that the JPY crosses had a volatile week and I think we can expect more of the same this week. In terms of volatility that is; I’m really not sure which way they go but pairs like GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY should see plenty of two-way action. The big […]

Future money managers, how are you spending your time?

Posted on - October 17, 2014 4:10 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Just a brief note today. How do you spend your time during the system development process? It should be something like this: 30% working on your objectives 30% working on your position-sizing 30% working on your exit rules (So you can trade what’s in-front of you) 10% on your entries To reinforce the point I […]
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