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Month-end flows expected to be overall USD negative #FXWWchatroom

Posted on - October 31, 2014 5:38 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Both Citi and Barclays are predicting that overall month-end flows will be moderately USD bearish with the possible exception of USD/JPY, which Barclays sees as neutral. From the FXWW chatroom on Reuters Messenger.

USD/JPY: Looking to build medium-term shorts into 50% retracement level at 111.65

Posted on - October 31, 2014 5:13 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 4 Comments
The market was certainly taken by surprise by the BOJ’s additional easing but a closer look at the fine print may suggest that this is not such a big deal (robbing Peter to pay Paul so to speak). I will try fading the rally into the medium-term technical resistance level at 111.65 (50% 147.50/75.50). This […]

EUR/USD: Selling relief rallies still ‘safest’ play

Posted on - October 31, 2014 7:31 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There is little sign of the USD up-trend to start easing off and we are again approaching some big optionality levels, 110 in USD/JPY and 1.2500 in EUR/USD. The speculative market is undoubtedly short of EUR/USD, with good reason, so the downtrend is likely to continue with occasional stop-loss driven spikes higher. Interbank sources report […]

How to Stalk a Low Risk/ High Reward Trade

Posted on - October 30, 2014 7:37 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
“Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch any animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch its prey. It may hide in the bush for a week, waiting for just the right moment. It will wait for a baby antelope, and not […]

RBNZ intervention data due out today #FXWWchatroom

Posted on - October 30, 2014 9:36 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
09:00:02 RBNZ FX intervention data due out today at 0200GMT Oct 30 09:12:47 Thanks Peter – here is the link…. the figure in the bottom right hand corner of the table is the one to look out for. . http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/tables/f5/

AUD/NZD testing strong chart resistance near 1.1300 after RBNZ

Posted on - October 30, 2014 7:04 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The cross has made a big move over the last few hours and selling into resistance levels near current market at 1.1285 does make good risk-reward sense. The market will pore over the RBNZ language but I doubt that the cross has the momentum to take out these levels without a fight.

Are you structuring your trading month for success?

Posted on - October 29, 2014 11:47 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Good trading, like anything else, requires proper research, planning, and execution. A prepared trader can implement a structure to make this happen. Too many traders treat trading as a pastime and not a serious business. They dabble at this and that because it’s interesting, and the leave the real work on the sidelines. But if […]

As volatility increases pre-FOMC, look for buy-dip opportunities in EUR crosses

Posted on - October 29, 2014 7:22 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
It’s too much of a gamble in my view to trade USD positions around FOMC time so I prefer to trade the crosses. Anytime the USD sees some major volatility, we will tend to see the crosses move hard and fast and some will obviously outpace others. This will give rise to some excellent opportunities, […]

Looking for some short-term opportunities in the crosses

Posted on - October 28, 2014 7:42 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The economic calendar will stay light for the next few sessions so we will rely on intraday sentiment/positional swings for some volatility. USD/JPY has found a resistance level at 108.30; Oil prices slipped again overnight which will put pressure on pairs like CAD/JPY; CAD/JPY support/resistance levels at 95.10/96.00 intraday and might be worth trading with […]

EUR/AUD: Looking for selling opportunities

Posted on - October 27, 2014 5:31 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I’m not overly sure of my levels just yet as I haven’t been trading this pair very actively. The EUR remains friendless and is likely to stay that way whilst I believe the bearish case against the AUD has been overdone. I will stay patient and see how the short-term market develops but I’m in […]

The Pitfalls and Benefits of “Back-testing”

Posted on - October 27, 2014 3:03 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 3 Comments
When I first started trading I would have spent hundreds of hours poring over charts back-testing my trading strategy. I even enlisted my girlfriends help to record my back test results in a spreadsheet (much to her chagrin). But what exactly is back-testing and does it help? Two types of back-testing There are two main […]

USD/JPY: Risk-reward favours long-term top-pickers

Posted on - October 27, 2014 7:42 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Picking levels in USD/JPY is will nigh impossible and it really is a matter of watching the market very closely for signs of accelerations and turns. I still cannot get away from the view that the big bull move from sub-80 on the back of the BOJ is running out of steam. That doesn’t mean […]

AUD/USD: Looking for some range trading opportunities this week

Posted on - October 27, 2014 7:20 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
It will be a quiet week for the AUD on the economic calendar and movements will be driven by commodity and equity markets as well as positional adjustments. The iron ore price has stabilised near $80 and the longer that this price consolidation continues, the more likely AUD shorts are to start covering. Risk sentiment […]

Is Trading 100% Psychology?

Posted on - October 24, 2014 11:49 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
People get exactly what they want out of the markets. Most people are afraid of success or failure. As a result, they tend to resist change and continue to follow their natural biases and lose in the markets. When you get rid of the fear, you tend to get rid of the biases.—Van K. Tharp, […]

AUD/USD: Sideways pattern likely to break soon

Posted on - October 24, 2014 7:48 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
AUD/USD has been trading in a wedge formation all week and the parameters are pretty tight now at .8735/.8810 approx. The AUD has made strong gains on some of the crosses this week (AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, AUD/GBP) but the USD is also very strong so it’s still a bit of a coin toss in my opinion […]

Markets staying choppy but USD strength still main trend

Posted on - October 24, 2014 7:43 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
USD/JPY made a strong break higher yesterday, taking out heavy sell orders near 107.50 and proving that the market still has plenty of appetite to buy this pair. The USD also made strong gains against the NZD and whilst the other majors were choppy, the bullish USD trend remains the strongest lead in the market. […]

EUR/JPY: Nasty turnaround catches shorts unawares

Posted on - October 23, 2014 7:29 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
The early EUR sell-off into early Europe had me thinking I was right only for the PMI numbers to set off a batch of very nasty short covering. There were obviously plenty of trailing stops above 135.80 in EUR/JPY judging by the speed of the move through there. Next resistance is nearby at 136.25/30. If […]

NZD falls heavily after CPI data

Posted on - October 23, 2014 9:35 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Q3 CPI came in at 0.3% QoQ which was well below expectations. The NZD/USD is 100 pips lower since NZ opened this morning. Next support levels are around .7820 and I’m sure there will be some stale shorts out there who will be availing of this significant dip.
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