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Corporate and institutional flows will dry up from today

Posted on - December 19, 2014 7:52 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
Many institutional and corporate players will be taking a full two week break from the FX market and with politicians also less likely to make any earth-shattering decisions during this period, any moves will be mainly speculative and driven by lack of liquidity. Overall positioning is at slightly below moderate levels, according to snippets of […]

EUR/CHF: Look to book interim profits near 1.2125

Posted on - December 18, 2014 6:38 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Big move higher in EUR/CHF after the SNB announced the move to negative rates. Normally one would expect that this is worth 200+ pips in EUR/CHF but it’s Christmas and logic goes out the window. There are 100’s of billions worth of overseas accounts in Switzerland and the question of course is whether this money […]

Liquidity continues to be very poor and will only get worse

Posted on - December 17, 2014 5:07 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Since the beginning of last week, e-commerce dealers have been complaining about the lack of liquidity and the fact that it’s only going to get worse. Tonight’s FOMC statement will only serve to heighten the fear factor which will further detract from the liquidity pool. Wherever the stop-losses are, that’s where the market will gravitate […]

Early morning FX rates, Dec 15th

Posted on - December 15, 2014 8:02 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments

Regulator focus on Algos will lead to greatly reduced liquidity

Posted on - December 12, 2014 8:46 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
Interbank e-commerce dealers have been reporting heavily reduced liquidity over the last 7-10 days and it’s not just the looming Christmas holidays which is responsible for this. The recent scrutiny into algorithms on trading platforms at big interbank players such as BarCap and Deutsche is not a one-off and dealers across the globe are bracing […]

AUD/NZD: Pretty clear ‘sell-rally’ play

Posted on - December 11, 2014 7:20 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
If the FX market is one big interest rate play, as many would contend, then we should be in the ‘sell-rally’ camp when it comes to AUD/NZD. The RBNZ, very surprisingly in my view, added a hawkish tone to their monetary policy statement whilst the RBA have a definite dovish tone. A widening of the […]

Latest economic calendars from Reuters

Posted on - December 10, 2014 8:18 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments

Enter the FX market’s ‘Period of Pain’

Posted on - December 10, 2014 7:55 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
It’s two weeks before Christmas, liquidity is drying up very sharply indeed according to interbank e-commerce dealers, and all positions are now fair game for the stop-loss munching machines. USD/JPY was the first to experience the pain with an overly positioned market falling almost 400 pips in a few short sessions. Short EUR positions could […]

USD/JPY: Pick a wide range, looks like it will be whippy

Posted on - December 9, 2014 8:23 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
E-commerce dealers at the major banks were reporting sharply reduced liquidity yesterday and this will mean more volatility in a heavily-positioned USD/JPY market. The trend is obviously very strong but pull-backs will be sharp and painful. Put your traders cap on as we could easily see 300/350 pip ranges over coming sessions, perhaps 119.00/122.50, or […]

EUR/USD: We can expect quite a few sessions of consolidation

Posted on - December 5, 2014 8:07 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
The market got caught short in illiquid conditions and that will give the bears some food for thought in coming sessions. A daily close back above the previous 1.2350 support level would also weaken the bears argument. The bearish trend is strong but nothing moves in a straight line in the FX market. If I […]

EUR/GBP in consolidation mode

Posted on - December 5, 2014 8:02 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I’m still short of this pair and happy to stay that way. Obviously, based on the reaction to the ECB overnight, the short-term market was overly short EUR at the wrong levels and got caught out by some illiquid conditions. Nevertheless the fundamental view for the EUR heading into 2015 is bearish and my view […]

Are demo accounts relevant in establishing a track record?

Posted on - December 4, 2014 4:06 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
In a word, No! The whole art of being a trader lies in ones ability to manage risk, maximise profits and minimise losses. A trader’s performance on a demo account will not give any insight into how they operate under pressure. If you are an absolute beginner and learning all the intricacies of the FX […]

EUR/GBP: Cover partial shorts on sharp dips below .7800

Posted on - December 4, 2014 7:51 am (Australia/Sydney) | 3 Comments
The break below 1.2350 in EUR/USD did indeed increase bearish momentum in EUR/GBP, and with cable support levels still holding firm, being short the cross is a compelling trade. Nevertheless, it’s unlikely that this pair will collapse in a straight line, it seldom trades this way, so covering on dips and re-selling on rallies makes […]

EUR/GBP: Will add to short position if EUR/USD breaks below 1.2350

Posted on - December 3, 2014 7:35 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
The EUR still looks pretty sick to me but I’m also of the opinion that cable is close to ‘must-buy’ levels. Whether this is 1.5500 of 1.5350, I simply don’t know, but what I am sure of is that we are close to a base in cable. The obvious way to trade this view is […]

CAD/JPY: Cutting my position at breakeven

Posted on - December 3, 2014 7:31 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Despite all the extreme volatility in the oil price, CAD/JPY was unable to break lower. Timing is everything in the FX market and mine is off at present. I’m exiting this trade at my entry level and will concentrate my energies elsewhere.

RBA: No change in policy or language expected

Posted on - December 2, 2014 7:34 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There is a small chance that the RBA will refer to the possibility of further rate cuts but most professional analysts that I’ve read seem to consider this very unlikely. Continued stability on policy and language is the expected outcome. If this is the case, and with a large option expiry at .8500 later today, […]

AUD/NZD: Downside pressure set to intensify

Posted on - December 1, 2014 9:18 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Unconfirmed reports this morning that the Australian government is lowering it’s presumed iron ore price to $60/tonne; Little that the RBNZ can do about the overvalued NZD. The AUD has been under pressure in early interbank trade and with commodity prices in general unlikely to make any sudden recovery, this trend in the Aussie won’t […]

EUR/CHF: Lot less risky to go long this morning

Posted on - December 1, 2014 7:03 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The cross has only risen by around 20 pips this morning after the Gold referendum was rejected in Switzerland. This could be a sign that the referendum result was fully priced in but it does also give the SNB a continued mandate to carry on with existing policies. Let’s put it this way, it’s a […]
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