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EUR: Short-covering picked up pace overnight

Posted on - January 30, 2015 8:57 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The EUR has made significant gains against the GBP, CAD, and AUD over the last 24 hours with excessive positioning taking its toll. These moves are seen as retracements in a mature trend, rather than any sudden desire to be long EUR in a QE environment. The next approximate resistance levels of note in these […]

AUD/USD: Long and wrong (for now) yet again

Posted on - January 30, 2015 8:22 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Such is the contrarians life, constantly getting burned while probing for the turn. Since Wednesday’s higher-than-expected CPI the market has fallen almost 300 pips which illustrates what the market’s sentiment is. Even EUR/AUD has made a sharp recovery, which shows exactly in what low terms the traders are thinking about the Aussie! But I stick […]

FXWW Connect powered by Thomson Reuters- sneak preview

Posted on - January 29, 2015 7:58 am (Australia/Sydney) | 4 Comments
Create your own professional FX news and data station using information from the professional market’s most trusted source, Thomson Reuters. Non-stop news, in multiple languages, with filters allowing you to create your own bespoke news feeds.   See the latest economic releases live and real-time with the professional market. Data you can trust and a […]

Bank analysts uniform in their expectations for RBA rate cuts

Posted on - January 28, 2015 4:53 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Well actually is would be much more of a surprise if they actually differed from each other. The logic being I suppose that if you get it wrong, at least everyone else got it wrong also! The consensus remains that February is probably a bit early for an actual cut and we will probably get […]

AUD: Weighted mean CPI +2.3% YoY, slightly above expectations

Posted on - January 28, 2015 11:34 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
I’m looking to add to AUD/USD longs on dips as this result should ensure that any rate cuts are delayed and could cause AUD/USD short-covering.

USD longs getting close to ridiculous levels

Posted on - January 28, 2015 7:31 am (Australia/Sydney) | 5 Comments
There were a lot of people burned by the ‘one-way-bet’ in EUR/CHF but it seems the market always wants to play with fire. Speculative USD longs are at record highs according to most measures with these positions spread across the board. EUR is obviously still the number 1 sell, followed by JPY, AUD, CAD and […]

AUD/USD: We can expect high volatility around CPI data

Posted on - January 28, 2015 7:20 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The market is bearish AUD/USD and today’s CPI data could determine whether it stays that way. The market is writing in around a 40% chance of an imminent rate cut and with all other global central banks (bar perhaps the RBNZ) in ‘easy’ mode, any lower than expected ‘weighted mean’ CPI would certainly reinforce the […]

EUR/USD: Few days range trading ahead

Posted on - January 27, 2015 10:11 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
After some massive moves in recent weeks the EUR/USD market can be forgiven for taking a breather. Yesterday’s Greek election result was the latest bearish event but the market has regained Friday’s closing levels which suggests to me that the bears are tired and will take a break. Yesterday’s lows near 1.1150 are the obvious […]

AUD: Important days ahead

Posted on - January 27, 2015 7:31 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Iron ore prices fell sharply again overnight and precious metals also stalled their recent run higher. Short-covering in the EUR/USD elicited a similar reaction from the AUD/USD, which offset the negative metals influence, but it will be very important to see how the Asian market reacts today. Is the market happy to stay short AUD/USD […]

AUD/USD: Edging into fresh long position

Posted on - January 26, 2015 11:13 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
EUR/AUD is bearish to my eye and will head back below 1.3000 in coming months; AUD/JPY looks technically very oversold on short-term charts; AUD/USD has fallen from above 1.00 to below .80 on the back of supposed tightening US monetary policy which still hasn’t happened. Even if/when it does, will it be a case of […]

EUR opens lower on Greek election result

Posted on - January 26, 2015 8:09 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1160 in early trade, USD/JPY is at 117.60, cable is at 1.4990 and AUD/USD is .7890. The anti-austerity, left-leaning Syriza party will win the Greek election but may fall just short of the absolute majority needed. Next technical support of note in the EUR/USD is at 1.1050.

Liquidity gaps going to be a major issue for FX market in 2015

Posted on - January 25, 2015 5:54 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
Don’t confuse liquidity gaps with level of turnover. We have had a few days last week where hourly turnover in the EUR was at record levels and these levels are only going to increase. When conditions are fine, massive turnover will continue. What’s of more interest to me is what happens when conditions aren’t fine. […]

USD/JPY: Swing trading still the approach, but not so sure about bias anymore

Posted on - January 23, 2015 3:56 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
I’ve been approaching USD/JPY with a swing trading mentality and a mild bearish bias, and whilst I’m still happy to trade the swings I’m not so sure about the bias anymore. There are a lot of (virtually every!) professional traders and analysts who are convinced that we are headed much higher and I guess I […]

Cable breaks exotic barrier at 1.5000, AUD/USD next?

Posted on - January 23, 2015 8:16 am (Australia/Sydney) | 4 Comments
The flight into USD is showing no sign of abating. EUR/USD is making fresh lows, cable has busted through exotic options at 1.5000 and AUD/USD is sitting above its big psychological level at .8000. Looks like we will have an interesting day!

EUR/USD: Strong bearish bias, now need to pick new range

Posted on - January 23, 2015 7:46 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The ECB action sets a clear agenda for the EUR and further losses look inevitable. Nevertheless, the market is short and there will be short-covering spikes. I’d now be using 1.1500/30 as my topside resistance area and selling rallies towards there looks like a sensible move. It’s more difficult to pick any downside stopping points […]

AUD/USD: Reserve buyers noted on dips today

Posted on - January 22, 2015 7:59 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Some nice snippets in the FXWW chatroom today regarding the AUD/USD. Reserve buyers have been notable on dips, and their amounts are usually significant. On the flip side, one of the big local banks reported that offers have been lowered from .8250 to .8150 by corporate and macro accounts.

Prefer to trade USD/JPY and AUD/USD pre- and post-ECB

Posted on - January 22, 2015 4:54 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The EUR will be whippy and silly at times I’m sure and even the GBP will get turbulent with EUR/GBP flows. I prefer to trade slightly ‘independent’ pairs like USD/JPY or AUD/USD during EUR-related risk events like today. We should get volatility but prices should return to some sort of normal value soon afterwards. USD/JPY […]

EUR/USD: What the market is expecting from the ECB

Posted on - January 22, 2015 8:01 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Expectations are now pretty clear, with the market looking for EUR1.1 trillion in QE starting in March. This will mean that the massive EUR speculative shorts will have to sit tight for another few months and we all know how difficult that is to do. Once the rumours started flying overnight, EUR/USD spiked up to […]
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