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AUD/USD: Large option expiries at .8900 today

Posted on - September 23, 2014 1:16 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
From the FXWW chatroom: About 900mln worth of 89 cent AUD/USD option maturities today…….overwhelming amout of puts ……….a lot of people will be short at 89 cents………or maybe not

USD/JPY: Favour playing 107.50/110.00 range

Posted on - September 23, 2014 8:55 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The entire world is bullish USD/JPY it seems and many are positioned accordingly. Sentiment will remain bullish whilst the respective central bank policies diverge but with positioning already at extreme levels, pull-backs are inevitable. We are currently experiencing a modest one, after 109.50 was rejected and ex-BOJ Iwata comments spooked some longs. 110.00 is the […]

GBP: Mixed signals, neutral bias

Posted on - September 23, 2014 7:52 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
EUR/GBP is definitely still in a strong bearish trend and levels between .75.77 look highly likely in coming weeks. But do I want to start opening short positions at .7850? Certainly not. Sell rallies for sure on all time-frames but there still could be some back-lash from the sometimes acrimonious referendum vote. The USD is […]

AUD and NZD risk event: HSBC China flash PMI

Posted on - September 23, 2014 7:25 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Most analysts are predicting that the latest HSBC version of Chinese PMI will come in pretty close to 50. Any number below 50 signifies a contraction in the manufacturing sector and numbers above show expansion. Both the AUD and the NZD remain under significant pressure and they will move again today no doubt, depending on […]

JPY crosses open slightly higher after G20 weekend

Posted on - September 22, 2014 7:02 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The lack of any currency-related comment from the G20 weekend will be seen by the market as being moderately JPY negative. The global economy has other things on its mind apart from Japanese monetary policy. The JPY crosses are slightly higher compared to the NY close from Friday, but movements are very modest in the […]

NZD opens higher after strong election win by ruling Nationals

Posted on - September 22, 2014 6:57 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The focus of the last 2 weeks has been firmly on the GBP but now the market should return to some semblance of normality and the other currencies get a look in. The first mover of the week is the NZD, which has traded to .8160 against the USD after a strong showing from the […]

GBP starting to settle now that result is becoming clear

Posted on - September 19, 2014 2:31 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The 54:46 YouGov prediction from earlier today looks very likely to come true and the GBP has begun to settle down after a 150 pip run higher against most of the other majors. Will it be a case of ‘buy the rumour sell the fact’? Cable has butted its nose against 1.6520 on at least […]

Last YouGov prediction: 54% No, 46% Yes

Posted on - September 19, 2014 7:32 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Cable is back above 1.6400 as vote-counting commences.

GBP: No vote looking very very likely

Posted on - September 19, 2014 6:42 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The GBP has continued to recover over the last 12 hours and the No-to-independence vote looks certain to prevail. There are unlikely to be any major news developments for the next 5/6 hours (polls close shortly) but we can still expect the GBP to trade skittishly. Keep a close eye on the ticker tape. If […]

USD/JPY: Plenty of headwinds ahead of 109.00

Posted on - September 19, 2014 6:34 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Very large offers were spotted overnight on interbank platforms on the approach to 109.00, confirming that there will be significant defence of barrier options at that level. Bids are likely to be pretty solid now at 108.10/20. It is risk-off Friday, so we may get some position reduction ahead of the weekend. Perhaps some consolidative […]

GBP: Was Betfair election pay-out just a marketing exercise

Posted on - September 18, 2014 5:27 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There is some suggestion in the marketplace that the Betfair early pay-out on the Scottish independence referendum was done more out of marketing reasons than on any voting conviction. Pretty good piece of marketing if that was the case! GBP has rallied strongly especially against the EUR and JPY in recent sessions on the presumption […]

GBP: Best avoided today unless you are a professional GBP trader

Posted on - September 18, 2014 7:52 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
The Scottish referendum voting booths will open in about 12 hours time and we can expect plenty of volatility in the GBP. My sense is that a No-to independence vote is pretty much built in and the market is happy to try buying GBP/USD at levels close to 1.60. This suggests that the market might […]

FX majors: Levels to watch in today’s trade

Posted on - September 18, 2014 7:39 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
EUR/USD: Downtrend re-ignited again overnight post-Fed and we are sitting right on last week’s lows at 1.2855. A clean break below here targets a weekly pivot near 1.2750. Price action from the last few days suggests that resistance levels should now emerge near 1.2920/30. AUD/USD: Another pair with a nasty reversal lower over the last […]

EUR/USD: Small longs in play

Posted on - September 17, 2014 11:52 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I know, I know, I swore off trading for the week after the AUD handed me a beating, but it’s impossible to maintain a feel for the market without having a position. I’ve taken a very small long position in EUR/USD at 1.2952 and I have a tight stop on this below 1.2900. If a […]

EUR/USD: Bears starting to lose some momentum

Posted on - September 16, 2014 7:48 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The bears have been in total command in EUR/USD over recent weeks but it seems to me that the clever money has been short since 1.35 and is booking profit whilst the late-to-party desperadoes are selling in hope rather than with conviction. With EUR/GBP and EUR/AUD starting to put up a fight against the ‘inevitable’ […]

USD/JPY: Little in way of technical resistance until 109.00

Posted on - September 16, 2014 7:30 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The vertical up-trend in USD/JPY is showing little signs of tiredness and we have to look back to the weekly trend-line to find some resistance near 109.00. There is a weekly high at 110.50 and they are the market’s next targets. Yesterday saw some quiet consolidation above 107.00 which, after a long bull run, suggests […]

Market taking a breather ahead of Scottish vote

Posted on - September 16, 2014 7:18 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The market took a day off yesterday after some wild and exciting moves last week, but I’d expect the volatility to return over the next few days as we get ready for the Scottish referendum. The ‘no-to-independence’ vote looks almost certain to carry the day but I personally would not try guessing the outcome and […]

Getting it wrong, time to take a break

Posted on - September 15, 2014 7:08 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Hopefully nobody paid me much attention in my recent AUD and CAD trades as they were no good. I’ve now been stopped out of everything so I will take some time off and re-assess. I don’t necessarily agree with the argument that every trader must take a break after a losing run, but I don’t […]
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