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Post-RBA price action suggests to me that AUD/USD goes higher quite soon

Posted on - March 3, 2015 2:52 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
There was a pop in the AUD/USD just prior to the RBA rate decision and this occurred because all the big local players and prime brokers pulled their bids and offers out of the market around 30 seconds prior to the announcement. With existing shorts at quite extreme levels, I don’t think it will take […]

Market split 50:50 on RBA decision today

Posted on - March 3, 2015 6:47 am (Australia/Sydney) |
There is a very even split amongst analysts and interest rate traders as to what the RBA will do today. The casting vote from the ‘chairman of RBA watchers’, Terry McCrann, would seem to suggest that they stay on hold this time due primarily to the white-hot property market. AUD/USD sentiment remains very heavy but […]

EUR/USD: Opens week with a very heavy feel

Posted on - March 2, 2015 7:34 am (Australia/Sydney) |
EUR/USD is currently trying to hang on to hourly support levels near 1.1170/80 but a break below here should hasten a test of recent lows around 1.1100. Nobody wants to buy the EUR at the moment, except to cover shorts it seems. Short-term resistance levels start at 1.1240.

AUD/USD steady in early trade, not reacting to Chinese rate cuts

Posted on - March 2, 2015 7:14 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The market has been expecting some stimulative measures from the PBOC and perhaps that’s the reason for the lack of reaction from the AUD market. The Chinese central bank cut the benchmark lending rate by 25 bps to 5.35% and the benchmark saving rate, also by 25 bps, to 2.5%. AUD/USD is having difficulty establishing […]

Large fixing flows expected today

Posted on - February 27, 2015 7:49 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Most of the big banks are expecting very significant end-of-month fixing flows later today and all the reports that I’ve read so far suggest that these flows will be heavily USD negative with the GBP expected to be the main beneficiary. Overnight price action certainly doesn’t agree with these presumptions but it’s probably wise to […]

Exiting long AUD/USD play; too much uncertainty around EUR/USD

Posted on - February 27, 2015 7:36 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I don’t like the overnight price action in EUR/USD and I’m exiting my long AUD/USD play basically at break-even. It seems the market was caught long of cable and AUD/USD after a big EUR/USD flow hit the market and if EUR/USD continues to tumble then AUD/USD will likely follow, albeit to a lesser degree.

Could USD/CAD be the next to topple from the USD house of cards!

Posted on - February 26, 2015 7:48 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Cable has been leading the way, first rejecting levels below 1.50 and the daily close back above 1.55 will have changed the psychological profile for this pair; AUD/USD has broken above .7850/75 and is threatening a basing formation. Talking my position here but I feel that we are headed to .83 cents in the shortish-term; […]

USD: I’m still clinging to the contrarian view

Posted on - February 25, 2015 7:53 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Nothing has changed compared to yesterday morning with all of the major USD pairs still well inside their short-term ranges. Fed Chair Yellen gave no indication of any rate-hike timing and USD/JPY was the most affected, giving back the almost 100 pip gain it had made during the day. EUR/USD technical support near 1.1300 held […]

Range trading, apart from the GBP

Posted on - February 24, 2015 8:29 am (Australia/Sydney) |
EUR/USD is in sideways consolidation below 1.1500. The market remains bearish. Only a break above 1.1550 will change the outlook. USD/JPY also in consolidation mode between 116/120 and there seems little point in trying to pre-empt the next medium-term move. The market is still very bullish on USD/JPY but cautiously bearish on crosses like EUR/JPY […]

EUR/USD: Professional market still looking to sell despite Greek debt extension

Posted on - February 23, 2015 7:54 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Most of the research and trade strategies that I’m reading this morning from banks and professional traders shows that nothing much has changed despite the 4-month debt extension. Traders are still very much in sell-rally mode. The big levels to watch topside would seem to be around 1.1550, as a break above that will have […]

AUD/USD: Still long, hoping for a break above .7850/70 resistance

Posted on - February 23, 2015 7:49 am (Australia/Sydney) |
It looks like there are still plenty of offers in the AUD/USD ahead of .7850 and we could be in for longer periods of sideways consolidation. I’m still running my long, bottom-picking, strategy and I need a break and hold above .7870 before I will consider elevating risk levels. There is nothing of note on […]

Big Prime Brokers issue liquidity warnings for Monday morning

Posted on - February 21, 2015 2:17 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Liquidity gaps will become an increasing issue for the FX market and we are seeing/hearing increasing instances of big Prime Brokers warning their clients that such events could occur. This is part of an email which Barclays sent out to their client base of hedge funds, corporates, banks and retail brokers: As a result of […]

AUD/USD: .7850 still key short-term level topside

Posted on - February 20, 2015 7:04 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
There is talk in the market of a short-term exotic option structure which is corralling prices between .7750 and .7850. This is easier to do during the Chinese New Year holiday when turnover is lower. I expect this structure to roll off today and I’m hoping that the first move will be higher. I’m still […]

AUD/USD: Short-term exotic structure .7750/.7850

Posted on - February 20, 2015 11:18 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m not sure of the exact levels but the weight of bids towards .7750 and the weight of offers towards .7850 suggest that this is indeed a quick 100 pip play by one of the bigger players. All of the bigger interbank players were reporting similar order books yesterday. One source tells me that this […]

USD bears not panicking yet post FOMC

Posted on - February 19, 2015 9:30 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The FOMC statement was more dovish than expected and while the bearish USD trend looks to be stalling against the GBP and the NZD, other major pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/USD remain in sideways consolidation. EUR/USD would need to break above 1.1550 and USD/JPY below 116.00 before the USD bulls will start getting really worried. […]

AUD/USD: Longs in play, hoping for a trend reversal

Posted on - February 18, 2015 6:58 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The AUD/USD has so far been unable to generate any sort of decent reversal momentum so this may well be another of my stubborn rather than clever trades! Who knows, we can only take positions as we see them and try and maximise the benefit. I added to my long play yesterday and will reduce […]

CAD/JPY: Quasi-oil trade in the FX market reverses sharply

Posted on - February 18, 2015 6:38 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Some weeks back, when oil started to crash, it took quite some time for the traditional oil play in the FX market to play catch-up. Much to my frustration, CAD/JPY hung around 105 for what seemed like an eternity before it eventually followed oil lower. Yesterday we saw the CAD/JPY reversal pick up momentum quite […]

Broad-based positional adjustment ahead of Chinese New Year holiday

Posted on - February 18, 2015 6:29 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The EUR started to ignore continued negative headlines and this has had an effect on itchy profit takers ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday which starts today. Chinese financial markets are shut for a week and other major centres like HK and Singapore will be closed on Thursday and Friday. Nobody likes to sit […]
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