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Risk-off Friday in Asia again

Posted on - November 21, 2014 1:04 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Usual Friday rules in Asia with the trend for the week reversing somewhat amid positional reduction ahead of the weekend. USD/JPY support levels will be much firmer towards 117.00. Cable resistance also firm near 1.5730.

EUR/CHF: Best left alone until after the Gold referendum

Posted on - November 21, 2014 7:14 am (Australia/Sydney) | 5 Comments
I’m not a believer in central bank market intervention after seeing it end in tears on too many occasions. The very strong comments from the SNB’s Zurbruegg (copied below from the FXWW chatroom) would normally cause more of a spike than they did which suggests to me that the SNB is in for a long […]

Cable: Short-term levels becoming obvious, 1.5590/1.5730

Posted on - November 20, 2014 7:16 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Prices have bottomed out on 2 occasions now near 1.5590 whilst 1.5720/30 has proven to be solid resistance on the topside. I’m maintaining my bullish bias for now and at least it’s becoming very clear where my stop-loss order should be! I will continue to build my long position inside of this range and hope […]

USD/JPY: Significant optionality at 117.50 should provide solid resistance first up

Posted on - November 19, 2014 4:55 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Normally these big optionality levels prove solid on the first test at least and I’ve been hearing for the last week or so that 117.50 is the next big level.

Cable: Hanging onto long position for now

Posted on - November 19, 2014 7:21 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Prices are back near my entry levels and the sideways price action in cable is starting to look consolidative (and therefore bearish). EUR/GBP has been the main problem with short positions starting to reduce or exit completely. The SNB support in EUR/CHF should be bearish for EUR/GBP (as they sanitise their EUR purchases) but as […]

AUD/NZD: Consolidation range 1.09/1.13 still in control

Posted on - November 19, 2014 7:01 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Nice call in AUD/NZD from Morgan Stanley last night to buy the dip ahead of the milk auction, and it turned out nicely with prices bottoming ahead of the consolidation-range base at 1.0900. The overnight lows were around 1.0935 and buying dips back towards this level over the next few sessions makes good sense, with […]

You Get What You Want From the Market

Posted on - November 19, 2014 1:05 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
“Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing” – Ed Seykota Do you know what you want out of the markets? Yes, I know people trade for money, but that is far from the only reason. Maybe you like […]

RBA minutes set for release today

Posted on - November 18, 2014 6:57 am (Australia/Sydney) | 3 Comments
The minutes from the November meeting of the RBA will be released at 11.30 am Sydney time and they will be followed by some remarks from Governor Glenn Stevens. The market will be looking out for any mention of the AUD level. Any rallies towards .8800 will run into heavy selling interest and dips to […]

Make Your Weakness Your Strength

Posted on - November 17, 2014 5:05 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Do you have market conditions that you just hate? Maybe the trend is your friend, but your trading gets all in a knot during range bound markets. But what if you could transform the market conditions you hate into the ones that you love the most? I went through this exercise myself, and now the […]

Cable: Long position looking more secure

Posted on - November 17, 2014 1:43 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I started building a long position on Friday and managed to get into the market at some favourable levels, albeit with a fairly small position. I’m hoping that the market will consolidate now above 1.5650 and that we get an initial sharp short-covering rally towards 1.5950. I will look to trade the edges of this […]

SNB Jordan: Gold referendum threatens CHF cap

Posted on - November 17, 2014 8:08 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Jordan also renewed the SNB’s criticism of the proposal, which he said would fuel unemployment, increase the risk of recession and threaten the bank’s efforts to keep the Swiss franc capped against the euro More from Reuters.com.

AUD/JPY trading higher in early trade post G-20

Posted on - November 17, 2014 7:12 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
USD/JPY is trading above 116.50 in early interbank trade and the AUD/USD is holding steady near .8760 in thin early interbank conditions. The free trade agreement between China and Australia is seen as significantly ‘risk positive’ so it’s little wonder to see the AUD/JPY trading higher. The next major topside technical milestone for the cross […]

Definitive definitions: Prop traders, dealers, strategists, etc

Posted on - November 14, 2014 2:43 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 7 Comments
I know most retail traders like to think of themselves as being traders, market makers, economists and technical analysts all rolled into one. This is not the case in the institutional world where each roll is very carefully defined: Spot dealer or market maker: You wear white socks with cheap shoes and an expensive suit. […]

Cable: Looking to start building long position again

Posted on - November 14, 2014 10:27 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
My long-term macro view remains unchanged, namely that we should be buying GBP and the commodity currencies and selling the Yen, EUR and the USD. The market has gone from bearish USD, to primarily bearish EUR and JPY, but I see this as being different to being wholly USD bullish. The turn in USD/JPY has […]

The changing face of the FX marketplace

Posted on - November 14, 2014 9:05 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
New official rules will come into place on January 1st which will basically spell the end of all prop trading at the major banks, which in most cases had already stopped anyway. Banks will also be faced with the dilemma of defining where market-making stops and where holding prop risk begins. Bank trading rooms will […]

USD/JPY: Feels like typical bullish consolidation- next target 117.50

Posted on - November 14, 2014 8:13 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Every pullback seems to run into a myriad of bids and this type of sideways trading after a big up-move certainly smells of typical bullish consolidation. The next big optionality level is at 117.50 and that would seem to be the obvious topside target. Personally though I’m leaving it alone as my timing on this […]

EUR/USD: Prefer to buy intraday dips for possible short-squeeze

Posted on - November 14, 2014 7:54 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Notwithstanding the fact that the SNB is upsetting the market equilibrium with their ill-advised tactics, I still like the risk-reward associated with buying dips in EUR/USD in anticipation of a pre-weekend short squeeze. EUR/GBP led the way overnight and I suspect that there will now be plenty of stops above 1.2500 in EUR/USD. The short-term […]

EUR/CHF update: Decent orders either side of very tight range

Posted on - November 13, 2014 8:14 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
An analysis of the big interbank trading platforms from Morgan Stanley is showing very solid offers at 1.2026/27 and decent sized bids at 1.2015/16 (courtesy of the FXWW chatroom on Reuters Messenger). It looks like we will be in for a long slow battle in the EUR/CHF, especially given reports that the SNB has been […]
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