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EUR/GBP: Should offer good two-way trading opportunities

Posted on - September 3, 2014 8:07 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I haven’t been trading this pair actively enough to have a strong grasp of what the big levels are, but sentiment has certainly taken a turn over the last few days and both bulls/bears can make reasonably strong arguments; a perfect case for the FX trader. Most of the fundamentals are still weighed heavily in […]

JPY weakness accelerates, GBP bulls blink

Posted on - September 3, 2014 7:57 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The medium-term sideways movement in USD/JPY looks to have been broken in favour of the bulls. I’m certainly not going to start buying it here but I’m not going to sell it either. Perhaps look for pull-backs towards 104.25 to consider entering long positions. The Yen crosses also look bullish and AUD/JPY looks likely to […]

Cable: Longs stopped out below 1.6530

Posted on - September 2, 2014 7:55 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Got my timing wrong on this trade and the residual of my long position has been stopped out below 1.6530. I will lick my wounds and reassess I’m still running a short USD/CAD trade but will most likely reduce now through 1.0950.

AUD unchanged after RBA decision and statement

Posted on - September 2, 2014 2:35 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The AUD “remains above most estimates of its fundamental value” according to the RBA statement but that’s having no impact on the AUD/USD which is glued to .9300. This has been one of the quieter reactions to the RBA decision in recent months. I still think .9270 is an important level, after it failed to […]

Will market start September with a bang

Posted on - September 2, 2014 1:33 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The traditional holiday period in the Northern Hemisphere is now over and we often get some really big moves starting in September. It looks like the USD bulls are holding all the strong cards, led by USD/JPY, and even though it’s not my side, I’m at least happy to see the market moving. Levels to […]

Cable: Still long, looking to play 1.6570/1.6670 range pre-BOE

Posted on - September 2, 2014 8:12 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The going has been slow for the cable but I’m of the view that a base will form between 1.6570/1.6670 and that we may get further topside after the BOE later in the week. Short-term moves will be determined by where the stops are and there may be some now back below 1.6590. In order […]

AUD: Don’t expect any surprises from the RBA today

Posted on - September 2, 2014 7:50 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The big week of central bank meetings kicks off today with the RBA. This is probably the most predictable of all meetings with no change in policy warranted and statement language also likely to stay steady. I’m still in the buy-dip camp on the AUD/USD on most time frames. Last week’s price action at .9270 […]

Cable: Base confirmed; but 1.6670 should provide intraday resistance

Posted on - September 1, 2014 5:00 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Nice bounce in the cable in early Europe and all of the recent price action suggests to me that a base is forming below 1.6600. I will look to book some intraday profits on any rallies towards 1.6665/70 and then re-load on dips from there.

Cable: Adding to longs, bullish break likely

Posted on - September 1, 2014 11:48 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I’ve been trading the cable range nicely for the last few days and I feel that we may be about to get a bullish break. The market has been dumping GBP longs against the USD in particular (but also against the CAD) but I feel we may be about to get a mini reversal. I’ve […]

Busy week of central bank meetings ahead

Posted on - September 1, 2014 7:19 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
The ECB will be the main event, with expectation of QE high after Draghi’s Jackson Hole speech, but the BOJ and BOC will also be keenly awaited. Sentiment remains very bearish on both the EUR and the JPY, but the market is already very short of both currencies. USD sentiment remains strong for now but […]

Cable: Happy to stick with longs for now

Posted on - August 29, 2014 8:09 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
I’ve been trading the short-term 1.6570/1.6610 range to good effect and I am still long in the hope of a base forming nearing current levels and the up-trend re-igniting. It’s unlikely that anything will happen during Asian trade and we can expect very quiet ranges until Europe opens. If we can close the week above […]

AUD/USD: Still prefer the buy-dip strategy, but extreme patience required

Posted on - August 29, 2014 8:04 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The price action at .9270 earlier in the week struck me as very bullish. There was quite a bit of AUD-negative news hitting the headlines at that time yet the AUD/USD couldn’t fall. I’m in dip-buying mode but as its Friday, I would not be at all surprised to see some AUD/JPY selling emerge during […]

It’s Friday! JPY crosses again the focus for Asia

Posted on - August 29, 2014 8:00 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The market has been trying to get bullish on USD/JPY for the last few weeks but the overall range-trading bias seems to be winning the day again. I suspect that the speculative market is still long USD/JPY and some of the JPY crosses, and seeing as its Friday (usually risk-off in Asia) we may see […]

Cable: Still long, trading 1.6570/1.6610 s/t range

Posted on - August 28, 2014 2:03 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I’m of the view that we may be trying to form a base near 1.6600 and return to the bull trend. I’ve been buying dips over the last two days but I’m still a bit worried, especially by reports from the EUR/GBP market. The market is undoubtedly still short of the cross and I’m hearing […]

AUD/USD: Capex data today; using .9270 as downside guide

Posted on - August 28, 2014 8:56 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The AUD/USD steadfastly refused to fall when the market was turning bullish on the USD, the big question now is will it also refuse to move if the USD turns the other way? Or will AUD/USD lead the way? We are unlikely to get any answers during today’s Asian session but I’m firmly in the […]

USD: Retracement or reversal- latter I think

Posted on - August 28, 2014 7:28 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
The USD bears will need a bit more evidence before getting overly excited but the recent price action in AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD certainly suggests that the greenback will struggle on these fronts. We often get impulsive market moves in September when the traditional holiday season has ended, and I’m definitely still of the opinion […]

USD/CAD: Short position looking stronger

Posted on - August 27, 2014 5:50 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Unfortunately we did not get that one last spike up towards 1.1050 but my short trade is looking quite healthy and a break below 1.0850 would have it looking even better. There have been various rumours flying around today in the CAD from heavy stops in the crosses to M&A activity in the funds. Whatever’s […]

NZD ticking higher as Fonterra headlines hit the newswires

Posted on - August 27, 2014 11:03 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Fonterra forming partnership with Chinese infant-formula company Beingmate; Keeping NZ46 per kg milk price forecast; Expects global milk prices to rise later this year. NZD is trying to stage a mini-rally on the back of this news (many had been expecting something negative).
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