Most of the big banks are expecting very significant end-of-month fixing flows later today and all the reports that I’ve read so far suggest that these flows will be heavily USD negative with the GBP expected to be the main beneficiary. Overnight price action certainly doesn’t agree with these presumptions but it’s probably wise to […]

Most of the research and trade strategies that I’m reading this morning from banks and professional traders shows that nothing much has changed despite the 4-month debt extension. Traders are still very much in sell-rally mode. The big levels to watch topside would seem to be around 1.1550, as a break above that will have […]

I’m not sure of the exact levels but the weight of bids towards .7750 and the weight of offers towards .7850 suggest that this is indeed a quick 100 pip play by one of the bigger players. All of the bigger interbank players were reporting similar order books yesterday. One source tells me that this […]

Some nice snippets in the FXWW chatroom today regarding the AUD/USD. Reserve buyers have been notable on dips, and their amounts are usually significant. On the flip side, one of the big local banks reported that offers have been lowered from .8250 to .8150 by corporate and macro accounts.

Huge 1.25’s rolling off Monday and Tuesday 5 yards plus on Tuesday. You have to think it wont go to far until they roll off Just posted in the FXWW chatroom

There have been some reports in the last few minutes in the FXWW chatroom of decent-sized selling flows in EUR/CAD and of strong bids ahead of an expected 1.3150 barrier in EUR/USD. There is an increasing expectation that the ECB will roll out some special easing measures as early as next week and that is fuelling […]

Firstly it was EUR/USD where the stops were targeted, now its AUD/NZD which is the market focus. The market gapped nastily through 1.1100/10 to trade above 1.1150. There is very little technical resistance until 1.1200.

AUD/NZD: There are still reports of large stops below 1.0920 and a quick look at your charts will explain why they are there; AUD/USD: Solid corporate bids are reported near .9230/35 with more optionality at .9200. Sounds like a ‘buy-dip’ intraday strategy could pay dividends in NZD/USD and strong technical support at .8400 should attract […]

The overall bias is still bearish but the market is caught short in thinning August markets, hence the rally at the end of last week; This pair has fallen a long way in a short space of time, so relief rallies are to be expected; I’m quite happy to try trading 50 pip moves either […]

USD/CAD: 200-dma at 1.0830; EUR/USD: Large expiries tomorrow at 1.3450; Cable: Market eyeing 1.6925 as next important downside level; USD/JPY: Seemingly immovable obstructions 101.00/102.50 AUD/USD: Options players also all over this pair and with volumes heavily reduced from speculative accounts, breaking the range will be hard work.

Most of the action is still in the flightless bird with stops triggered below .8590 in NZD/USD and the AUD/NZD cross trading above 1.1000.

The number was slightly above expectations and the market seems happy to try buying the AUD. AUD/NZD got a boost after the RBNZ this morning and there are big levels looming above 1.1000. AUD/USD looks like it will now gravitate towards big option strikes/expiries at .9500 and .9525.

A reliable Prime Brokerage source suggests that we could be in for quite a battle if cable trades down towards 1.7070. There are decent bids starting near there but there are also heavy macro-type trailing stops below 1.7055. With little else to move the market at the moment, these orders may act like a magnet. […]

Iron ore futures are +1.75% in early Asian trade; End-of-fin-year flows are expected to be AUD positive (although most of bigger flows are surely already complete).

USD/CAD: Technical support at a 50% retracement level 1.0725; AUD/USD: Recent daily highs at .9460; Cable: Recent daily highs at 1.7060. EUR and JPY are also making modest session gains against the USD but all 3 big currencies are range trading against each other.

I’m hearing pretty much the same story as yesterday, a decent sized sell order near 1.7010 is still capping the market and protecting stops above 1.7020 for now. Bids are being reported now quite close to the market at 1.6960/65 which does seem to support the idea that the short-term market is short and nervous.

I’m sticking with my strong buy-dip bias in the AUD/USD and I expect the AUD to continue to make strong gains on the crosses. But we may well be in for a few months of broad sideways trading between .92/.95 and this seems to be the way that the options market is calling it. The […]

It’s getting increasingly hard for professional traders to generate any returns in these markets and it’s no surprise to see hedge funds clambering once more onto their favoured USD/JPY long trade in the hope of a developing trend. The clever ones bought in around 101.00 when the stops were being triggered and the Japanese semi-official […]