Posted on - August 27, 2014 10:42 am (Australia/Sydney) |
There have been some reports in the last few minutes in the FXWW chatroom of decent-sized selling flows in EUR/CAD and of strong bids ahead of an expected 1.3150 barrier in EUR/USD. There is an increasing expectation that the ECB will roll out some special easing measures as early as next week and that is fuelling […]
Posted on - August 25, 2014 7:26 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Firstly it was EUR/USD where the stops were targeted, now its AUD/NZD which is the market focus. The market gapped nastily through 1.1100/10 to trade above 1.1150. There is very little technical resistance until 1.1200.
Posted on - August 12, 2014 8:16 am (Australia/Sydney) |
AUD/NZD: There are still reports of large stops below 1.0920 and a quick look at your charts will explain why they are there; AUD/USD: Solid corporate bids are reported near .9230/35 with more optionality at .9200. Sounds like a ‘buy-dip’ intraday strategy could pay dividends in NZD/USD and strong technical support at .8400 should attract […]
Posted on - August 3, 2014 8:33 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
The overall bias is still bearish but the market is caught short in thinning August markets, hence the rally at the end of last week; This pair has fallen a long way in a short space of time, so relief rallies are to be expected; I’m quite happy to try trading 50 pip moves either […]
Posted on - July 28, 2014 7:50 am (Australia/Sydney) |
USD/CAD: 200-dma at 1.0830; EUR/USD: Large expiries tomorrow at 1.3450; Cable: Market eyeing 1.6925 as next important downside level; USD/JPY: Seemingly immovable obstructions 101.00/102.50 AUD/USD: Options players also all over this pair and with volumes heavily reduced from speculative accounts, breaking the range will be hard work.
Posted on - July 24, 2014 3:11 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Most of the action is still in the flightless bird with stops triggered below .8590 in NZD/USD and the AUD/NZD cross trading above 1.1000.
Posted on - July 24, 2014 12:14 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
The number was slightly above expectations and the market seems happy to try buying the AUD. AUD/NZD got a boost after the RBNZ this morning and there are big levels looming above 1.1000. AUD/USD looks like it will now gravitate towards big option strikes/expiries at .9500 and .9525.
Posted on - July 14, 2014 8:04 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
A reliable Prime Brokerage source suggests that we could be in for quite a battle if cable trades down towards 1.7070. There are decent bids starting near there but there are also heavy macro-type trailing stops below 1.7055. With little else to move the market at the moment, these orders may act like a magnet. […]
Posted on - June 26, 2014 11:55 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Iron ore futures are +1.75% in early Asian trade; End-of-fin-year flows are expected to be AUD positive (although most of bigger flows are surely already complete).
Posted on - June 23, 2014 12:33 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
USD/CAD: Technical support at a 50% retracement level 1.0725; AUD/USD: Recent daily highs at .9460; Cable: Recent daily highs at 1.7060. EUR and JPY are also making modest session gains against the USD but all 3 big currencies are range trading against each other.
Posted on - June 19, 2014 10:20 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m hearing pretty much the same story as yesterday, a decent sized sell order near 1.7010 is still capping the market and protecting stops above 1.7020 for now. Bids are being reported now quite close to the market at 1.6960/65 which does seem to support the idea that the short-term market is short and nervous.
Posted on - June 11, 2014 9:28 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m sticking with my strong buy-dip bias in the AUD/USD and I expect the AUD to continue to make strong gains on the crosses. But we may well be in for a few months of broad sideways trading between .92/.95 and this seems to be the way that the options market is calling it. The […]
Posted on - June 4, 2014 9:26 am (Australia/Sydney) |
It’s getting increasingly hard for professional traders to generate any returns in these markets and it’s no surprise to see hedge funds clambering once more onto their favoured USD/JPY long trade in the hope of a developing trend. The clever ones bought in around 101.00 when the stops were being triggered and the Japanese semi-official […]
Posted on - June 3, 2014 8:29 am (Australia/Sydney) |
There were offers of up to $1 billion at regular intervals on the interbank platforms starting at 102.25; The fact that these offers were chewed up shows how strongly ‘bid’ the market was; More large sell orders are reported at 102.50, 60 and 65.
Posted on - May 30, 2014 10:35 am (Australia/Sydney) |
All of the AUD buying over the last 24 hours has been cross-related judging from interbank flow reports in any case. AUD/NZD (Kylie ) has of course been the big mover but there has also been steady buying of AUD against the GBP and the EUR. Local banks and Prime Brokers are reporting similar order […]
Posted on - May 28, 2014 7:20 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Cable looks to be offering the clearest sell signal with resistance levels now likely to be very firm between 1.6850/80 in a market that is already very long at elevated levels. I think we could see a healthy retracement towards 1.65 perhaps, presuming of course that we don’t get any excessively bad data out of […]
Posted on - May 27, 2014 8:47 am (Australia/Sydney) |
It’s always difficult to know how much (if anything) was pre-bought ahead of such M&A deals. What we can say is that the cancellation of the deal will blunt bullish GBP sentiment to some degree and with the market already long, there could be some downside risks. Market chatter suggests sell orders starting above 1.6880 […]
Posted on - May 27, 2014 8:36 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Just reading some flow information from BOFA in the FXWW chat-room which suggests that hedge funds are getting back on the Yen bear trade. The AUD has also come in for some attention from the professional trading community, with longs in the futures market at 1-year highs, and BOFA report selling across the board from […]