Category in EUR/USD

Important decisions looming this week for ECB QE

From Barclays research: The European Court of Justice (ECJ) opinion will have crucial implications for government bond purchases by the ECB and the outlook for the euro. On Wednesday, the Advocate General of the ECJ will publish his opinions on a list of questions raised by the German Constitutional Court (GCC) regarding the Outright Monetary

EUR flows: Speculators short but big players still selling

Just catching up on interbank research after a 2 week break and the following factors are being consistently reported: Prime Brokers are reporting heavy speculative short positions amongst professional players, especially through the options market; Overall short positioning in the spot market is at significant levels; Net Fixed Income flows have been very EUR-negative and

EUR/USD: Prefer to buy intraday dips for possible short-squeeze

Notwithstanding the fact that the SNB is upsetting the market equilibrium with their ill-advised tactics, I still like the risk-reward associated with buying dips in EUR/USD in anticipation of a pre-weekend short squeeze. EUR/GBP led the way overnight and I suspect that there will now be plenty of stops above 1.2500 in EUR/USD. The short-term

As volatility increases pre-FOMC, look for buy-dip opportunities in EUR crosses

It’s too much of a gamble in my view to trade USD positions around FOMC time so I prefer to trade the crosses. Anytime the USD sees some major volatility, we will tend to see the crosses move hard and fast and some will obviously outpace others. This will give rise to some excellent opportunities,

EUR/USD: Pick a wide trading range from here

Somewhat of a train wreck overnight for EUR shorts across the board and the market was obviously overly positioned. The fundamental back-drop for the EUR remains bearish so I think we can still sell any big rallies but short-term sentiment will have shifted somewhat after last night’s rally, so dips will also be sought-after. In

USD: Retracement or reversal- latter I think

The USD bears will need a bit more evidence before getting overly excited but the recent price action in AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD certainly suggests that the greenback will struggle on these fronts. We often get impulsive market moves in September when the traditional holiday season has ended, and I’m definitely still of the opinion

EUR/USD: Barrier protection ahead of 1.3150

There have been some reports in the last few minutes in the FXWW chatroom of decent-sized selling flows in EUR/CAD and of strong bids ahead of an expected 1.3150 barrier in EUR/USD. There is an increasing expectation that the ECB will roll out some special easing measures as early as next week and that is fuelling