USD: Bearish momentum starting to accelerate
The AUD/USD is leading the way again as a new trading week gets underway and those who have missed out on the move might get some more joy by focusing elsewhere. Cable is underdone in my biased view and has some catching up to do. There is always the risk of some Brexit headlines knocking
Market signals becoming clearer
At risk of repeating myself once too often, I think the market’s reasoning behind buying the USD is deeply flawed and I am looking for opportunities to build medium-term USD shorts against one of the other majors. The move back above 1.10 in EUR/USD is pivotal in my view and I expect to see further
JPY crosses providing direction for now
EUR/JPY is back at levels last seen over 3 years ago and this is putting the other JPY crosses under pressure as well. USD/JPY has been relatively liquid over the last few months, bar a few nasty spikes down and up, which suggests to me that positioning is not at extreme levels and we are
Getting back to normal in a Brave New World
I’ve started getting back into the swing of the market and it can be advantageous sometimes to spend some time away and become less emotional about levels and directions. What has surprised me is the large number of bank analysts who are very USD bullish in the shortish term. I understand their reasoning, basically they
Gold: Core long, buy dips
Like many long-term financial market professionals, my confidence in the fiat system is so strong that I always have a core long position in Gold and Silver bullion!! It’s a matter of time before the day of reckoning comes. Technically speaking, the daily chart has now formed a very strong base near $1350-$1375 and looks
FX Market Sentiment & Positioning; week to 26th Jan 2018
Our proprietary analysis of online and social media sentiment in the major FX pairs shows a disparity between professional and non-professional traders. USD sentiment remains 50:50 with professional traders whilst the bears are clearly in charge at 32:68 amongst the retail trading community. Positioning data does not yet support the sentiment measure in either the
EUR/USD: Sentiment analysis 22-01-18
We shall have to wait until later today or early tomorrow to get more accurate information on how the EUR/USD positioning situation has changed over the last week but overall sentiment and ‘noise’ remains relatively muted. After a significant technical break I would expect to be reading much more bullish commentary but the market does
USD remains under pressure in early Asian trade
EUR/USD traded up to 1.2270 in very early Asian trade, 50 pips above Friday’s close, after positive headlines regarding German coalition talks and more uncertainty regarding the US government funding situation. The early-year trend of a lower USD looks like it might still have some legs and I am not looking for a reversal just
If you’re not tracking Bunds, you can’t trade EUR

1. Open a fresh workspace on FXWW Connect and select the ‘desktop’ option; 2. Right-click on the screen and select ‘Reuters Full Quote’; 3. Use the following RIC, ‘DE10YT=RR‘; 4. Right-click once again on the empty part of the screen and select …
EUR/USD: Professional market still looking to sell despite Greek debt extension
Most of the research and trade strategies that I’m reading this morning from banks and professional traders shows that nothing much has changed despite the 4-month debt extension. Traders are still very much in sell-rally mode. The big levels to watch topside would seem to be around 1.1550, as a break above that will have
EUR/USD: Next wave of downward pressure about to develop
Germany and Greece remain poles apart when it comes to debt negotiations despite minor progress from time to time. EUR/USD has managed to get back onto the 1.14 handle on a number of occasions but the failure to break above 1.15 again is quite telling. I’m also hearing reports out of New York (in the FXWW
USD bears not panicking yet post FOMC
The FOMC statement was more dovish than expected and while the bearish USD trend looks to be stalling against the GBP and the NZD, other major pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/USD remain in sideways consolidation. EUR/USD would need to break above 1.1550 and USD/JPY below 116.00 before the USD bulls will start getting really worried.
EUR still looking soft as stand-off in EZ continues
Still no agreement between Greece and its creditors and any uncertainty will continue to weigh on the EUR in the short term. The Greek finance minister seemed willing to accept one type of proposal but any extension of the current bailout package seems unacceptable to the new Syriza negotiating team. Some of the EUR crosses
EUR/USD: Cheap trade for the EUR/USD bears
I’m still bearish on the EUR crosses, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD in particular, so it makes sense to look for intraday trading opportunities in EUR/USD. Overnight reports suggest that there is decent sized sell interest near 1.1500 and with a recent spike high at 1.1530 just above there, we know where to put our stop! On
EUR/USD: Few days range trading ahead
After some massive moves in recent weeks the EUR/USD market can be forgiven for taking a breather. Yesterday’s Greek election result was the latest bearish event but the market has regained Friday’s closing levels which suggests to me that the bears are tired and will take a break. Yesterday’s lows near 1.1150 are the obvious
EUR opens lower on Greek election result
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1160 in early trade, USD/JPY is at 117.60, cable is at 1.4990 and AUD/USD is .7890. The anti-austerity, left-leaning Syriza party will win the Greek election but may fall just short of the absolute majority needed. Next technical support of note in the EUR/USD is at
EUR/USD: Strong bearish bias, now need to pick new range
The ECB action sets a clear agenda for the EUR and further losses look inevitable. Nevertheless, the market is short and there will be short-covering spikes. I’d now be using 1.1500/30 as my topside resistance area and selling rallies towards there looks like a sensible move. It’s more difficult to pick any downside stopping points
EUR/USD: What the market is expecting from the ECB
Expectations are now pretty clear, with the market looking for EUR1.1 trillion in QE starting in March. This will mean that the massive EUR speculative shorts will have to sit tight for another few months and we all know how difficult that is to do. Once the rumours started flying overnight, EUR/USD spiked up to