Our proprietary analysis of online and social media sentiment in the major FX pairs shows a disparity between professional and non-professional traders. USD sentiment remains 50:50 with professional traders whilst the bears are clearly in charge at 32:68 amongst the retail trading community. Positioning data does not yet support the sentiment measure in either the

We shall have to wait until later today or early tomorrow to get more accurate information on how the EUR/USD positioning situation has changed over the last week but overall sentiment and ‘noise’ remains relatively muted. After a significant technical break I would expect to be reading much more bullish commentary but the market does

EUR/USD traded up to 1.2270 in very early Asian trade, 50 pips above Friday’s close, after positive headlines regarding German coalition talks and more uncertainty regarding the US government funding situation. The early-year trend of a lower USD looks like it might still have some legs and I am not looking for a reversal just

1. Open a fresh workspace on FXWW Connect and select the ‘desktop’ option; 2. Right-click on the screen and select ‘Reuters Full Quote’; 3. Use the following RIC, ‘DE10YT=RR‘; 4. Right-click once again on the empty part of the screen and select …

Most of the research and trade strategies that I’m reading this morning from banks and professional traders shows that nothing much has changed despite the 4-month debt extension. Traders are still very much in sell-rally mode. The big levels to watch topside would seem to be around 1.1550, as a break above that will have

Germany and Greece remain poles apart when it comes to debt negotiations despite minor progress from time to time. EUR/USD has managed to get back onto the 1.14 handle on a number of occasions but the failure to break above 1.15 again is quite telling. I’m also hearing reports out of New York (in the FXWW

The FOMC statement was more dovish than expected and while the bearish USD trend looks to be stalling against the GBP and the NZD, other major pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/USD remain in sideways consolidation. EUR/USD would need to break above 1.1550 and USD/JPY below 116.00 before the USD bulls will start getting really worried.

Still no agreement between Greece and its creditors and any uncertainty will continue to weigh on the EUR in the short term. The Greek finance minister seemed willing to accept one type of proposal but any extension of the current bailout package seems unacceptable to the new Syriza negotiating team. Some of the EUR crosses

I’m still bearish on the EUR crosses, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD in particular, so it makes sense to look for intraday trading opportunities in EUR/USD. Overnight reports suggest that there is decent sized sell interest near 1.1500 and with a recent spike high at 1.1530 just above there, we know where to put our stop! On

After some massive moves in recent weeks the EUR/USD market can be forgiven for taking a breather. Yesterday’s Greek election result was the latest bearish event but the market has regained Friday’s closing levels which suggests to me that the bears are tired and will take a break. Yesterday’s lows near 1.1150 are the obvious

EUR/USD is trading at 1.1160 in early trade, USD/JPY is at 117.60, cable is at 1.4990 and AUD/USD is .7890. The anti-austerity, left-leaning Syriza party will win the Greek election but may fall just short of the absolute majority needed. Next technical support of note in the EUR/USD is at

The ECB action sets a clear agenda for the EUR and further losses look inevitable. Nevertheless, the market is short and there will be short-covering spikes. I’d now be using 1.1500/30 as my topside resistance area and selling rallies towards there looks like a sensible move. It’s more difficult to pick any downside stopping points

Expectations are now pretty clear, with the market looking for EUR1.1 trillion in QE starting in March. This will mean that the massive EUR speculative shorts will have to sit tight for another few months and we all know how difficult that is to do. Once the rumours started flying overnight, EUR/USD spiked up to

EUR/JPY has been leading the way this week, falling almost 400 pips from highs to lows. More to come I suspect and I expect to see 135.00 early next week. EUR/GBP is threatening to close below .7760 on a weekly basis, which would be a technically bearish event. What does this mean for EUR/USD? The

Today’s European Court of Justice (ECJ) opinion will have crucial implications for government bond purchases by the ECB and naturally will impact on EUR sentiment. With positioning at close-to-extreme levels, it might be a day for the contrarians? Two ways to play this I guess, buy here at 1.1770 with a very tight stop below 1.1750

From Barclays research: The European Court of Justice (ECJ) opinion will have crucial implications for government bond purchases by the ECB and the outlook for the euro. On Wednesday, the Advocate General of the ECJ will publish his opinions on a list of questions raised by the German Constitutional Court (GCC) regarding the Outright Monetary

Obviously I missed the first opportunity earlier this morning to buy cable at 1.5100 but I’m sure there will be other opportunities. AUD/USD is still stalling ahead of presumed option-related bids at .8050 but a break of that should bring on a really swift move towards .8000. The main move in the market is a

Liquidity was understandably poor this morning, as it always is on a Monday morning, but I think we can start getting used to these nasty gaps. There will be many more comments on Greece EU membership, EZ QE etc and with market-makers changing their pricing techniques we can expect plenty more ‘gappy’ markets. Selling rallies