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EUR/USD: Professional market still looking to sell despite Greek debt extension

Posted on - February 23, 2015 7:54 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Most of the research and trade strategies that I’m reading this morning from banks and professional traders shows that nothing much has changed despite the 4-month debt extension. Traders are still very much in sell-rally mode. The big levels to watch topside would seem to be around 1.1550, as a break above that will have […]

EUR/USD: Next wave of downward pressure about to develop

Posted on - February 20, 2015 7:17 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Germany and Greece remain poles apart when it comes to debt negotiations despite¬†minor progress from time to time. EUR/USD has managed to get back onto the 1.14 handle on a number of occasions but the failure to break above 1.15 again is quite telling. I’m also hearing reports out of New York (in the FXWW […]

USD bears not panicking yet post FOMC

Posted on - February 19, 2015 9:30 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The FOMC statement was more dovish than expected and while the bearish USD trend looks to be stalling against the GBP and the NZD, other major pairs like USD/JPY and EUR/USD remain in sideways consolidation. EUR/USD would need to break above 1.1550 and USD/JPY below 116.00 before the USD bulls will start getting really worried. […]

EUR still looking soft as stand-off in EZ continues

Posted on - February 17, 2015 7:43 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Still no agreement between Greece and its creditors and any uncertainty will continue to weigh on the EUR in the short term. The Greek finance minister seemed willing to accept one type of proposal but any extension of the current bailout package seems unacceptable to the new Syriza negotiating team. Some of the EUR crosses […]

EUR/USD: Cheap trade for the EUR/USD bears

Posted on - February 6, 2015 7:45 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m still bearish on the EUR crosses, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD in particular, so it makes sense to look for intraday trading opportunities in EUR/USD. Overnight reports suggest that there is decent sized sell interest near 1.1500 and with a recent spike high at 1.1530 just above there, we know where to put our stop! On […]

EUR/USD: Few days range trading ahead

Posted on - January 27, 2015 10:11 am (Australia/Sydney) |
After some massive moves in recent weeks the EUR/USD market can be forgiven for taking a breather. Yesterday’s Greek election result was the latest bearish event but the market has regained Friday’s closing levels which suggests to me that the bears are tired and will take a break. Yesterday’s lows near 1.1150 are the obvious […]

EUR opens lower on Greek election result

Posted on - January 26, 2015 8:09 am (Australia/Sydney) |
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1160 in early trade, USD/JPY is at 117.60, cable is at 1.4990 and AUD/USD is .7890. The anti-austerity, left-leaning Syriza party will win the Greek election but may fall just short of the absolute majority needed. Next technical support of note in the EUR/USD is at 1.1050.

EUR/USD: Strong bearish bias, now need to pick new range

Posted on - January 23, 2015 7:46 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The ECB action sets a clear agenda for the EUR and further losses look inevitable. Nevertheless, the market is short and there will be short-covering spikes. I’d now be using 1.1500/30 as my topside resistance area and selling rallies towards there looks like a sensible move. It’s more difficult to pick any downside stopping points […]

EUR/USD: What the market is expecting from the ECB

Posted on - January 22, 2015 8:01 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Expectations are now pretty clear, with the market looking for EUR1.1 trillion in QE starting in March. This will mean that the massive EUR speculative shorts will have to sit tight for another few months and we all know how difficult that is to do. Once the rumours started flying overnight, EUR/USD spiked up to […]

EUR still looking bearish on the crosses; sell EUR/USD rallies

Posted on - January 15, 2015 10:43 am (Australia/Sydney) |
EUR/JPY has been leading the way this week, falling almost 400 pips from highs to lows. More to come I suspect and I expect to see 135.00 early next week. EUR/GBP is threatening to close below .7760 on a weekly basis, which would be a technically bearish event. What does this mean for EUR/USD? The […]

EUR/USD: Cheap trade with stop below 1.1750

Posted on - January 14, 2015 7:49 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Today’s¬†European Court of Justice (ECJ) opinion will have crucial implications for government bond purchases by the ECB and naturally will impact on EUR sentiment. With positioning at close-to-extreme levels, it might be a day for the contrarians? Two ways to play this I guess, buy here at 1.1770 with a very tight stop below 1.1750 […]

Important decisions looming this week for ECB QE

Posted on - January 12, 2015 6:49 am (Australia/Sydney) |
From Barclays research: The European Court of Justice (ECJ) opinion will have crucial implications for government bond purchases by the ECB and the outlook for the euro. On Wednesday, the Advocate General of the ECJ will publish his opinions on a list of questions raised by the German Constitutional Court (GCC) regarding the Outright Monetary […]

Looking to buy short-term dips in cable and AUD/USD

Posted on - January 5, 2015 3:12 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Obviously I missed the first opportunity earlier this morning to buy cable at 1.5100 but I’m sure there will be other opportunities. AUD/USD is still stalling ahead of presumed option-related bids at .8050 but a break of that should bring on a really swift move towards .8000. The main move in the market is a […]

EUR liquidity- a taste of things to come

Posted on - January 5, 2015 11:42 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Liquidity was understandably poor this morning, as it always is on a Monday morning, but I think we can start getting used to these nasty gaps. There will be many more comments on Greece EU membership, EZ QE etc and with market-makers changing their pricing techniques we can expect plenty more ‘gappy’ markets. Selling rallies […]

EUR flows: Speculators short but big players still selling

Posted on - January 5, 2015 8:02 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Just catching up on interbank research after a 2 week break and the following factors are being consistently reported: Prime Brokers are reporting heavy speculative short positions amongst professional players, especially through the options market; Overall short positioning in the spot market is at significant levels; Net Fixed Income flows have been very EUR-negative and […]

EUR/USD: We can expect quite a few sessions of consolidation

Posted on - December 5, 2014 8:07 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The market got caught short in illiquid conditions and that will give the bears some food for thought in coming sessions. A daily close back above the previous 1.2350 support level would also weaken the bears argument. The bearish trend is strong but nothing moves in a straight line in the FX market. If I […]

EUR/USD: Prefer to buy intraday dips for possible short-squeeze

Posted on - November 14, 2014 7:54 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Notwithstanding the fact that the SNB is upsetting the market equilibrium with their ill-advised tactics, I still like the risk-reward associated with buying dips in EUR/USD in anticipation of a pre-weekend short squeeze. EUR/GBP led the way overnight and I suspect that there will now be plenty of stops above 1.2500 in EUR/USD. The short-term […]

EUR/USD: Options rolling off plus the ECB later today

Posted on - November 6, 2014 7:35 am (Australia/Sydney) |
It will be a busy day for the EUR/USD today ahead of the ECB decision and statement. Most of the big option expiries which we mentioned earlier this week kept the pair stuck within 70/80 pips of the main expiry level at 1.2500. Most of the bigger options have now rolled off, allowing plenty of […]
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