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As volatility increases pre-FOMC, look for buy-dip opportunities in EUR crosses

Posted on - October 29, 2014 7:22 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
It’s too much of a gamble in my view to trade USD positions around FOMC time so I prefer to trade the crosses. Anytime the USD sees some major volatility, we will tend to see the crosses move hard and fast and some will obviously outpace others. This will give rise to some excellent opportunities, […]

EUR/USD: Pick a wide trading range from here

Posted on - October 16, 2014 8:02 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
Somewhat of a train wreck overnight for EUR shorts across the board and the market was obviously overly positioned. The fundamental back-drop for the EUR remains bearish so I think we can still sell any big rallies but short-term sentiment will have shifted somewhat after last night’s rally, so dips will also be sought-after. In […]

EUR/USD: Small longs in play

Posted on - September 17, 2014 11:52 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I know, I know, I swore off trading for the week after the AUD handed me a beating, but it’s impossible to maintain a feel for the market without having a position. I’ve taken a very small long position in EUR/USD at 1.2952 and I have a tight stop on this below 1.2900. If a […]

EUR/USD: Bears starting to lose some momentum

Posted on - September 16, 2014 7:48 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The bears have been in total command in EUR/USD over recent weeks but it seems to me that the clever money has been short since 1.35 and is booking profit whilst the late-to-party desperadoes are selling in hope rather than with conviction. With EUR/GBP and EUR/AUD starting to put up a fight against the ‘inevitable’ […]

USD: Retracement or reversal- latter I think

Posted on - August 28, 2014 7:28 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
The USD bears will need a bit more evidence before getting overly excited but the recent price action in AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD certainly suggests that the greenback will struggle on these fronts. We often get impulsive market moves in September when the traditional holiday season has ended, and I’m definitely still of the opinion […]

EUR/USD: Barrier protection ahead of 1.3150

Posted on - August 27, 2014 10:42 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There have been some reports in the last few minutes in the FXWW chatroom of decent-sized selling flows in EUR/CAD and of strong bids ahead of an expected 1.3150 barrier in EUR/USD. There is an increasing expectation that the ECB will roll out some special easing measures as early as next week and that is fuelling […]

AUD/NZD: Gapping higher in stop-driven markets

Posted on - August 25, 2014 7:26 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Firstly it was EUR/USD where the stops were targeted, now its AUD/NZD which is the market focus. The market gapped nastily through 1.1100/10 to trade above 1.1150. There is very little technical resistance until 1.1200.

Kuroda comments ensure USD/JPY opens higher

Posted on - August 25, 2014 7:19 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
USD/JPY gapped higher on the Asian open, touching 104.40 in early interbank trade, after dovish comments from BOJ Chief Kuroda at the Jackson Hole symposium. He said that the BOJ may have to continue with aggressively dovish policy for some time to come. The USD has also made strong gains against the EUR this morning, […]

EUR/GBP catching bid tone after BOE minutes

Posted on - July 23, 2014 6:39 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
EUR/USD ran into some significant bids near 1.3455 a little earlier; The BOE minutes have just been released and the immediate reaction from professional analysts seems to be that they are slightly more dovish than expected; EUR/GBP has been the market’s favourite whipping child in recent months and is ‘enjoying’ a very modest 25 pip […]

Usual rules still apply; sharp moves followed by sideways action

Posted on - July 23, 2014 7:34 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Unfortunately the early-European move in EUR/USD has followed recent market behaviour and started trading sideways after a sharp 50 pip move. Once market expectations become entrenched, it’s pretty hard to shift them, and most traders are not looking for any more than 50 pip moves now. Australian CPI will be the main event on today’s […]

Professional market staying very bearish on EUR

Posted on - July 8, 2014 6:59 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Citi FX strategy ‘trade of the week’ is short EUR/USD; Morgan Stanley ‘trade of the week’ is short EUR/JPY; I have not spoken to one professional trader over the last 3/4 weeks who is bullish EUR. Make of that what you will. I must say, I agree with all of the above but perhaps we first get […]

EUR/USD: Favour selling rallies keeping stops above last week’s highs

Posted on - July 7, 2014 7:56 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
EUR crosses continue to look very heavy and the weekly close below .8000 in EUR/GBP certainly strengthens the bear’s case. EUR/NZD is in a solid downtrend. EUR/JPY is still the great unknown; will the medium-term up-trend re-ignite or will longer-term Japanese investors be forced out of EZ assets through a move lower in the EUR/JPY […]

USD preferred ahead of EUR and JPY in medium-term

Posted on - July 2, 2014 8:46 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Plenty of people asking me about the big pairs, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, as this is what they are used to trading and they find it difficult to start concentrating on the crosses. USD/JPY: Positioning has not been a major issue with this pair for some months now. Central bank policy is the main driver and […]

Early Europe on the stop-loss hunt

Posted on - June 19, 2014 5:00 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
All of the majors are higher against the USD in early European trade with well-chronicled stops in EUR/USD, cable and AUD/USD providing the targets. With the Fed now out of the way for another month, then market has obviously decided to try selling the USD and see how far it can run.

EUR/USD: Base above 1.3500 looking more secure

Posted on - June 19, 2014 7:17 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
You know my thoughts on the EUR/USD by now, neither currency is worth buying. But the recent downtrend in this pair has run out of steam and a base of sorts has formed just above 1.3500. With market momentum at 7 year lows, we need to be very patient and wait for the correct entry […]

EUR crosses threatening to squeeze shorts

Posted on - June 17, 2014 7:31 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
EUR/USD has stalled on a number of occasions at important technical support neat 1.3500 and there are certain to be trailing stops on the topside; EUR/GBP has been on a steady bear run after the conflicting central bank statements, but with momentum generally lacking, it feels as if shorts may soon start to book some […]

EUR: Likely to remain weakest of all major currencies

Posted on - June 13, 2014 9:40 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The EUR looks very sick on all of the major crosses and as they are the most recent addition to the negative rates/QE club, I’d expect this negative EUR sentiment to continue for some time. EUR/GBP is headed toward longer-term neutral levels near .75 and selling any 150 pip rallies is the obvious play here […]

EUR/USD: Not the time to be getting overly bearish

Posted on - June 10, 2014 7:08 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
All of the signals are pointing toward a lower EUR/USD but the most important one, market momentum, suggests that it will have trouble breaking lower onto a new plane. Just before the ECB decision last week, EUR/USD was trading around 1.3600. We are still there! The news has certainly been bearish EUR which tells us […]
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