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EUR/GBP catching bid tone after BOE minutes

Posted on - July 23, 2014 6:39 pm (UTC) | 0 Comments
EUR/USD ran into some significant bids near 1.3455 a little earlier; The BOE minutes have just been released and the immediate reaction from professional analysts seems to be that they are slightly more dovish than expected; EUR/GBP has been the market’s favourite whipping child in recent months and is ‘enjoying’ a very modest 25 pip […]

Usual rules still apply; sharp moves followed by sideways action

Posted on - July 23, 2014 7:34 am (UTC) | 0 Comments
Unfortunately the early-European move in EUR/USD has followed recent market behaviour and started trading sideways after a sharp 50 pip move. Once market expectations become entrenched, it’s pretty hard to shift them, and most traders are not looking for any more than 50 pip moves now. Australian CPI will be the main event on today’s […]

Professional market staying very bearish on EUR

Posted on - July 8, 2014 6:59 am (UTC) | 1 Comment
Citi FX strategy ‘trade of the week’ is short EUR/USD; Morgan Stanley ‘trade of the week’ is short EUR/JPY; I have not spoken to one professional trader over the last 3/4 weeks who is bullish EUR. Make of that what you will. I must say, I agree with all of the above but perhaps we first get […]

EUR/USD: Favour selling rallies keeping stops above last week’s highs

Posted on - July 7, 2014 7:56 am (UTC) | 0 Comments
EUR crosses continue to look very heavy and the weekly close below .8000 in EUR/GBP certainly strengthens the bear’s case. EUR/NZD is in a solid downtrend. EUR/JPY is still the great unknown; will the medium-term up-trend re-ignite or will longer-term Japanese investors be forced out of EZ assets through a move lower in the EUR/JPY […]

USD preferred ahead of EUR and JPY in medium-term

Posted on - July 2, 2014 8:46 am (UTC) | 1 Comment
Plenty of people asking me about the big pairs, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, as this is what they are used to trading and they find it difficult to start concentrating on the crosses. USD/JPY: Positioning has not been a major issue with this pair for some months now. Central bank policy is the main driver and […]

Early Europe on the stop-loss hunt

Posted on - June 19, 2014 5:00 pm (UTC) | 0 Comments
All of the majors are higher against the USD in early European trade with well-chronicled stops in EUR/USD, cable and AUD/USD providing the targets. With the Fed now out of the way for another month, then market has obviously decided to try selling the USD and see how far it can run.

EUR/USD: Base above 1.3500 looking more secure

Posted on - June 19, 2014 7:17 am (UTC) | 0 Comments
You know my thoughts on the EUR/USD by now, neither currency is worth buying. But the recent downtrend in this pair has run out of steam and a base of sorts has formed just above 1.3500. With market momentum at 7 year lows, we need to be very patient and wait for the correct entry […]

EUR crosses threatening to squeeze shorts

Posted on - June 17, 2014 7:31 am (UTC) | 0 Comments
EUR/USD has stalled on a number of occasions at important technical support neat 1.3500 and there are certain to be trailing stops on the topside; EUR/GBP has been on a steady bear run after the conflicting central bank statements, but with momentum generally lacking, it feels as if shorts may soon start to book some […]

EUR: Likely to remain weakest of all major currencies

Posted on - June 13, 2014 9:40 am (UTC) | 0 Comments
The EUR looks very sick on all of the major crosses and as they are the most recent addition to the negative rates/QE club, I’d expect this negative EUR sentiment to continue for some time. EUR/GBP is headed toward longer-term neutral levels near .75 and selling any 150 pip rallies is the obvious play here […]

EUR/USD: Not the time to be getting overly bearish

Posted on - June 10, 2014 7:08 am (UTC) | 0 Comments
All of the signals are pointing toward a lower EUR/USD but the most important one, market momentum, suggests that it will have trouble breaking lower onto a new plane. Just before the ECB decision last week, EUR/USD was trading around 1.3600. We are still there! The news has certainly been bearish EUR which tells us […]

EUR/USD: Massive short-covering after the event

Posted on - June 6, 2014 7:58 am (UTC) | 1 Comment
Once a market starts trading sideways it finds it very difficult to suddenly generate impulsive trend-building momentum. There were some very large shorts built up in the EUR since the last ECB meeting and the clever ones got the chance last night to book some healthy profits, and they took their chance. Don’t look a […]

EUR: Best left alone until after the ECB

Posted on - June 5, 2014 7:16 am (UTC) | 0 Comments
The market has written in a reduced Refi rate, a negative Discount rate, and some extra LTRO-like measures into tonight’s ECB rate decision. My sources in Germany tell me that this is far from a foregone conclusion. Regional banks and insurers in Germany are complaining loudly, and Germany is always the loudest voice inside the […]

Australian GDP the main event this morning

Posted on - June 4, 2014 6:55 am (UTC) | 0 Comments
Another very quiet 24 hours in the FX market and all of the major pairs seem to be trading exactly where they were at the beginning of the trading week. The AUD has been unable to move despite retail sales data and the RBA, so we shouldn’t hold out too much hope that the GDP […]

USD sitting at interesting intraday levels against other majors

Posted on - June 2, 2014 7:40 am (UTC) | 0 Comments
EUR/USD: Back trading around 1.3635/40 which was the major breakdown level. The market has been building shorts ahead of the ECB and we may see fairly tight ‘nervous’ trailing stops above this level; Cable did a lot of work around 1.6765/75 on the way down and purely from a price-action perspective, I’d expect resistance to […]

USD set for further gains against the GBP, CHF and EUR #2

Posted on - May 30, 2014 6:57 am (UTC) | 4 Comments
As I said earlier in the week, the USD looks set to make further gains against the big European currencies and these trades are starting to develop nicely. Cable was the first mover and I’d expect any rallies now back towards 1.6775 to run into plenty of grateful sellers. I don’t expect any major collapse, […]

EUR/USD: Starting to feel increasingly bearish

Posted on - May 22, 2014 7:29 am (UTC) | 2 Comments
EUR/GBP is consolidating below previous support at .8160 and medium-term bear targets near .77 are starting to come into view; EUR/AUD ran into a brick wall near the previous long-term mid-rate around 1.55 and is likely to settle into a new long-term range with a mid-point closer to 1.40 according to my analysis; EUR/USD has […]

EUR: Everyone’s getting very bearish

Posted on - May 19, 2014 8:01 am (UTC) | 5 Comments
Firstly, recent history would suggest that we are much more likely to see range trading markets than any impulsive trends; Secondly, many of the same people turning bearish EUR/USD on the 1.36 handle were bullish at 1.3950 very recently; Thirdly, the change in tone from the ECB was not unexpected and in fact had been […]

Watch weekend press closely for Bundesbank comments

Posted on - May 16, 2014 5:23 pm (UTC) | 0 Comments
My German trading Freunde are expecting so read some clarification in the weekend press regarding the Bundesbank position on any ECB easing. Don’t expect the Buba to have suddenly turned ueber-dovish, that won’t happen, and any policy changes are likely to be slow and measured. (In other words, I’d be careful about being overly short […]
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