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EUR/JPY: Short-squeeze developing

Posted on - February 11, 2015 8:07 am (Australia/Sydney) |
It’s pretty hard to know which of these currencies we should be selling but in recent weeks the market has been overwhelmingly bearish on EUR/JPY. I’m also getting the sense that many big professional accounts are running short positions and that of course raises the spectre of a short-squeeze. There has been a lot of […]

EUR/USD: Cheap trade for the EUR/USD bears

Posted on - February 6, 2015 7:45 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m still bearish on the EUR crosses, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD in particular, so it makes sense to look for intraday trading opportunities in EUR/USD. Overnight reports suggest that there is decent sized sell interest near 1.1500 and with a recent spike high at 1.1530 just above there, we know where to put our stop! On […]

EUR: Short-covering picked up pace overnight

Posted on - January 30, 2015 8:57 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The EUR has made significant gains against the GBP, CAD, and AUD over the last 24 hours with excessive positioning taking its toll. These moves are seen as retracements in a mature trend, rather than any sudden desire to be long EUR in a QE environment. The next approximate resistance levels of note in these […]

EUR/USD: What the market is expecting from the ECB

Posted on - January 22, 2015 8:01 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Expectations are now pretty clear, with the market looking for EUR1.1 trillion in QE starting in March. This will mean that the massive EUR speculative shorts will have to sit tight for another few months and we all know how difficult that is to do. Once the rumours started flying overnight, EUR/USD spiked up to […]

SNB intervention definitely a possibility

Posted on - January 19, 2015 2:12 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Firstly let’s state the perfectly bleedin’ obvious! ┬áDo not take any positions based on central bank’s fools errands! Ok, that’s out of the way. SNB chief Jordan said the following in a weekend interview with the Neue Zuercher Zeitung: We are still monitoring the FX markets, and will intervene if necessary When and where they […]

EUR/CHF: Important information on post SNB price action

Posted on - January 16, 2015 11:28 am (Australia/Sydney) |
For those who are faced with margin calls this morning, it’s important to get as much information as possible on how the market traded immediately after the SNB announcement and then make a decision on whether you’ve been fairly treated by your broker. Once you have agreed on common ground then you can have a […]

EUR still looking bearish on the crosses; sell EUR/USD rallies

Posted on - January 15, 2015 10:43 am (Australia/Sydney) |
EUR/JPY has been leading the way this week, falling almost 400 pips from highs to lows. More to come I suspect and I expect to see 135.00 early next week. EUR/GBP is threatening to close below .7760 on a weekly basis, which would be a technically bearish event. What does this mean for EUR/USD? The […]

Looking to buy short-term dips in cable and AUD/USD

Posted on - January 5, 2015 3:12 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Obviously I missed the first opportunity earlier this morning to buy cable at 1.5100 but I’m sure there will be other opportunities. AUD/USD is still stalling ahead of presumed option-related bids at .8050 but a break of that should bring on a really swift move towards .8000. The main move in the market is a […]

EUR liquidity- a taste of things to come

Posted on - January 5, 2015 11:42 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Liquidity was understandably poor this morning, as it always is on a Monday morning, but I think we can start getting used to these nasty gaps. There will be many more comments on Greece EU membership, EZ QE etc and with market-makers changing their pricing techniques we can expect plenty more ‘gappy’ markets. Selling rallies […]

EUR flows: Speculators short but big players still selling

Posted on - January 5, 2015 8:02 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Just catching up on interbank research after a 2 week break and the following factors are being consistently reported: Prime Brokers are reporting heavy speculative short positions amongst professional players, especially through the options market; Overall short positioning in the spot market is at significant levels; Net Fixed Income flows have been very EUR-negative and […]

EUR/CHF: Update on Christmas Day price action

Posted on - December 29, 2014 8:33 am (Australia/Sydney) |
From the FXWW Chatroom: For those just returning after Christmas – there has been a bit of a stewards enquiry as to what exactly happened to EURCHF on Xmas day… there are several suggestions that we traded sub 1.2000 thru the SNB cap – not having seen the price action myself I can’t provide a […]

EUR/GBP in consolidation mode

Posted on - December 5, 2014 8:02 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m still short of this pair and happy to stay that way. Obviously, based on the reaction to the ECB overnight, the short-term market was overly short EUR at the wrong levels and got caught out by some illiquid conditions. Nevertheless the fundamental view for the EUR heading into 2015 is bearish and my view […]

EUR/CHF update: Decent orders either side of very tight range

Posted on - November 13, 2014 8:14 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
An analysis of the big interbank trading platforms from Morgan Stanley is showing very solid offers at 1.2026/27 and decent sized bids at 1.2015/16 (courtesy of the FXWW chatroom on Reuters Messenger). It looks like we will be in for a long slow battle in the EUR/CHF, especially given reports that the SNB has been […]

EUR looking oversold on the crosses

Posted on - November 11, 2014 8:55 am (Australia/Sydney) |
EUR/GBP- the whole world seems to be bearish, myself included, and we are nearing very significant and proven support at .7750; EUR/CAD- also getting very close to significant support levels near 1.4000; EUR/AUD- slightly more mid-range in a 1.42/1.46 consolidation but you can argue the case that a bottoming formation is developing on the daily […]

EUR/USD: Options rolling off plus the ECB later today

Posted on - November 6, 2014 7:35 am (Australia/Sydney) |
It will be a busy day for the EUR/USD today ahead of the ECB decision and statement. Most of the big option expiries which we mentioned earlier this week kept the pair stuck within 70/80 pips of the main expiry level at 1.2500. Most of the bigger options have now rolled off, allowing plenty of […]

As volatility increases pre-FOMC, look for buy-dip opportunities in EUR crosses

Posted on - October 29, 2014 7:22 am (Australia/Sydney) |
It’s too much of a gamble in my view to trade USD positions around FOMC time so I prefer to trade the crosses. Anytime the USD sees some major volatility, we will tend to see the crosses move hard and fast and some will obviously outpace others. This will give rise to some excellent opportunities, […]

EUR/AUD: Looking for selling opportunities

Posted on - October 27, 2014 5:31 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m not overly sure of my levels just yet as I haven’t been trading this pair very actively. The EUR remains friendless and is likely to stay that way whilst I believe the bearish case against the AUD has been overdone. I will stay patient and see how the short-term market develops but I’m in […]

EUR/JPY: Nasty turnaround catches shorts unawares

Posted on - October 23, 2014 7:29 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
The early EUR sell-off into early Europe had me thinking I was right only for the PMI numbers to set off a batch of very nasty short covering. There were obviously plenty of trailing stops above 135.80 in EUR/JPY judging by the speed of the move through there. Next resistance is nearby at 136.25/30. If […]
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