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EUR/JPY: Nasty turnaround catches shorts unawares

Posted on - October 23, 2014 7:29 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
The early EUR sell-off into early Europe had me thinking I was right only for the PMI numbers to set off a batch of very nasty short covering. There were obviously plenty of trailing stops above 135.80 in EUR/JPY judging by the speed of the move through there. Next resistance is nearby at 136.25/30. If […]

EUR/USD: Pick a wide trading range from here

Posted on - October 16, 2014 8:02 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
Somewhat of a train wreck overnight for EUR shorts across the board and the market was obviously overly positioned. The fundamental back-drop for the EUR remains bearish so I think we can still sell any big rallies but short-term sentiment will have shifted somewhat after last night’s rally, so dips will also be sought-after. In […]

EUR/GBP: Fresh longs in play

Posted on - October 2, 2014 9:25 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
This is a short-term ‘timing’ trade and I’m looking for weekly support at .7750 to hold. The market is very short of this cross and recent price action in the GBP has been moderately bearish in my view. I’m probably the only person in the market who is now long of EUR; not sure if […]

EUR/GBP: Shorts preferred for .7870 test

Posted on - September 5, 2014 8:28 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
I prefer this pair in the short-term to others like EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD for the simple reason that cable has moved to some degree alongside the EUR/USD whilst AUD/USD and USD/CAD have moved slightly counter the main market trend. Hope that makes sense, but to an old cross trader like me, EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD feel […]

Look for selling opportunities in the EUR crosses

Posted on - September 5, 2014 7:59 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Well done to all those patient EUR/USD bears who’ve stayed on this trade but for the rest of us it’s pretty hard to jump on board the moving train. I prefer to look for selling opportunities in the crosses like EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD. They have come a long way also but there is likely […]

EUR/USD: Barrier protection ahead of 1.3150

Posted on - August 27, 2014 10:42 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There have been some reports in the last few minutes in the FXWW chatroom of decent-sized selling flows in EUR/CAD and of strong bids ahead of an expected 1.3150 barrier in EUR/USD. There is an increasing expectation that the ECB will roll out some special easing measures as early as next week and that is fuelling […]

EUR crosses likely for further short-term squeezes

Posted on - August 11, 2014 7:49 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
EUR/GBP has been one of the trades of choice for professional traders over the last few months and there is still heavy bearish sentiment and positioning. With some mixed signals coming from the UK labour market, we could see any indecision turn into a stop-loss chase. Selling rallies still preferred but it looks as though […]

EUR/CAD: Trying to break up but I’m looking for a ‘sell’ opportunity

Posted on - August 4, 2014 6:30 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I don’t actively trade this pair so I don’t have a strong feel for what the correct levels are to be entering the market, but I’m pretty convinced from the fundamental side that we should be selling any small relief rallies. There is no way that the ECB can be anything other than dovish, given […]

EUR/GBP: Happy to trade either side at the moment

Posted on - August 3, 2014 8:33 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The overall bias is still bearish but the market is caught short in thinning August markets, hence the rally at the end of last week; This pair has fallen a long way in a short space of time, so relief rallies are to be expected; I’m quite happy to try trading 50 pip moves either […]

Professional market staying very bearish on EUR

Posted on - July 8, 2014 6:59 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Citi FX strategy ‘trade of the week’ is short EUR/USD; Morgan Stanley ‘trade of the week’ is short EUR/JPY; I have not spoken to one professional trader over the last 3/4 weeks who is bullish EUR. Make of that what you will. I must say, I agree with all of the above but perhaps we first get […]

EUR/USD: Favour selling rallies keeping stops above last week’s highs

Posted on - July 7, 2014 7:56 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
EUR crosses continue to look very heavy and the weekly close below .8000 in EUR/GBP certainly strengthens the bear’s case. EUR/NZD is in a solid downtrend. EUR/JPY is still the great unknown; will the medium-term up-trend re-ignite or will longer-term Japanese investors be forced out of EZ assets through a move lower in the EUR/JPY […]

Another very quiet start to the week but volatility slowly increasing

Posted on - July 7, 2014 7:27 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
It’s been another very slow start to the interbank trading week with most of the major pairs hanging around Friday’s closing levels. There are no major economic events in Asia until the Chinese inflation data on Wednesday and of course the market will be hanging on the Fed minutes later the same day. Nevertheless, volatility […]

USD preferred ahead of EUR and JPY in medium-term

Posted on - July 2, 2014 8:46 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Plenty of people asking me about the big pairs, EUR/USD and USD/JPY, as this is what they are used to trading and they find it difficult to start concentrating on the crosses. USD/JPY: Positioning has not been a major issue with this pair for some months now. Central bank policy is the main driver and […]

EUR/AUD: Contrarian trade idea

Posted on - June 17, 2014 9:11 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I guess if the EUR/USD is susceptible to a short-squeeze and the AUD/USD is capped by option sellers, then we should consider a contrarian EUR/AUD trade A 5-wave down-move has completed from 1.5540 to 1.4350 and a 38.2% retracement of that move would take us back toward 1.4800. Good risk reward potential for the contrarian […]

EUR: Likely to remain weakest of all major currencies

Posted on - June 13, 2014 9:40 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The EUR looks very sick on all of the major crosses and as they are the most recent addition to the negative rates/QE club, I’d expect this negative EUR sentiment to continue for some time. EUR/GBP is headed toward longer-term neutral levels near .75 and selling any 150 pip rallies is the obvious play here […]

EUR/USD: Not the time to be getting overly bearish

Posted on - June 10, 2014 7:08 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
All of the signals are pointing toward a lower EUR/USD but the most important one, market momentum, suggests that it will have trouble breaking lower onto a new plane. Just before the ECB decision last week, EUR/USD was trading around 1.3600. We are still there! The news has certainly been bearish EUR which tells us […]

EUR/GBP: Even more reasons to be short now

Posted on - June 6, 2014 2:48 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The ECB decisions from yesterday make this trade an even more attractive proposition and I see no reason not to be selling any small rallies in expectation of a serious test of .8000, perhaps even as early as next week. Central bank event-risk is now out of the way for another 4 weeks and once […]

EUR: Best left alone until after the ECB

Posted on - June 5, 2014 7:16 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The market has written in a reduced Refi rate, a negative Discount rate, and some extra LTRO-like measures into tonight’s ECB rate decision. My sources in Germany tell me that this is far from a foregone conclusion. Regional banks and insurers in Germany are complaining loudly, and Germany is always the loudest voice inside the […]
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