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EUR/GBP in consolidation mode

Posted on - December 5, 2014 8:02 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I’m still short of this pair and happy to stay that way. Obviously, based on the reaction to the ECB overnight, the short-term market was overly short EUR at the wrong levels and got caught out by some illiquid conditions. Nevertheless the fundamental view for the EUR heading into 2015 is bearish and my view […]

EUR/CHF update: Decent orders either side of very tight range

Posted on - November 13, 2014 8:14 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
An analysis of the big interbank trading platforms from Morgan Stanley is showing very solid offers at 1.2026/27 and decent sized bids at 1.2015/16 (courtesy of the FXWW chatroom on Reuters Messenger). It looks like we will be in for a long slow battle in the EUR/CHF, especially given reports that the SNB has been […]

EUR looking oversold on the crosses

Posted on - November 11, 2014 8:55 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
EUR/GBP- the whole world seems to be bearish, myself included, and we are nearing very significant and proven support at .7750; EUR/CAD- also getting very close to significant support levels near 1.4000; EUR/AUD- slightly more mid-range in a 1.42/1.46 consolidation but you can argue the case that a bottoming formation is developing on the daily […]

EUR/USD: Options rolling off plus the ECB later today

Posted on - November 6, 2014 7:35 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
It will be a busy day for the EUR/USD today ahead of the ECB decision and statement. Most of the big option expiries which we mentioned earlier this week kept the pair stuck within 70/80 pips of the main expiry level at 1.2500. Most of the bigger options have now rolled off, allowing plenty of […]

As volatility increases pre-FOMC, look for buy-dip opportunities in EUR crosses

Posted on - October 29, 2014 7:22 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
It’s too much of a gamble in my view to trade USD positions around FOMC time so I prefer to trade the crosses. Anytime the USD sees some major volatility, we will tend to see the crosses move hard and fast and some will obviously outpace others. This will give rise to some excellent opportunities, […]

EUR/AUD: Looking for selling opportunities

Posted on - October 27, 2014 5:31 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I’m not overly sure of my levels just yet as I haven’t been trading this pair very actively. The EUR remains friendless and is likely to stay that way whilst I believe the bearish case against the AUD has been overdone. I will stay patient and see how the short-term market develops but I’m in […]

EUR/JPY: Nasty turnaround catches shorts unawares

Posted on - October 23, 2014 7:29 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
The early EUR sell-off into early Europe had me thinking I was right only for the PMI numbers to set off a batch of very nasty short covering. There were obviously plenty of trailing stops above 135.80 in EUR/JPY judging by the speed of the move through there. Next resistance is nearby at 136.25/30. If […]

EUR/USD: Pick a wide trading range from here

Posted on - October 16, 2014 8:02 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
Somewhat of a train wreck overnight for EUR shorts across the board and the market was obviously overly positioned. The fundamental back-drop for the EUR remains bearish so I think we can still sell any big rallies but short-term sentiment will have shifted somewhat after last night’s rally, so dips will also be sought-after. In […]

EUR/GBP: Fresh longs in play

Posted on - October 2, 2014 9:25 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
This is a short-term ‘timing’ trade and I’m looking for weekly support at .7750 to hold. The market is very short of this cross and recent price action in the GBP has been moderately bearish in my view. I’m probably the only person in the market who is now long of EUR; not sure if […]

EUR/GBP: Shorts preferred for .7870 test

Posted on - September 5, 2014 8:28 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
I prefer this pair in the short-term to others like EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD for the simple reason that cable has moved to some degree alongside the EUR/USD whilst AUD/USD and USD/CAD have moved slightly counter the main market trend. Hope that makes sense, but to an old cross trader like me, EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD feel […]

Look for selling opportunities in the EUR crosses

Posted on - September 5, 2014 7:59 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Well done to all those patient EUR/USD bears who’ve stayed on this trade but for the rest of us it’s pretty hard to jump on board the moving train. I prefer to look for selling opportunities in the crosses like EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD. They have come a long way also but there is likely […]

EUR/USD: Barrier protection ahead of 1.3150

Posted on - August 27, 2014 10:42 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There have been some reports in the last few minutes in the FXWW chatroom of decent-sized selling flows in EUR/CAD and of strong bids ahead of an expected 1.3150 barrier in EUR/USD. There is an increasing expectation that the ECB will roll out some special easing measures as early as next week and that is fuelling […]

EUR crosses likely for further short-term squeezes

Posted on - August 11, 2014 7:49 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
EUR/GBP has been one of the trades of choice for professional traders over the last few months and there is still heavy bearish sentiment and positioning. With some mixed signals coming from the UK labour market, we could see any indecision turn into a stop-loss chase. Selling rallies still preferred but it looks as though […]

EUR/CAD: Trying to break up but I’m looking for a ‘sell’ opportunity

Posted on - August 4, 2014 6:30 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I don’t actively trade this pair so I don’t have a strong feel for what the correct levels are to be entering the market, but I’m pretty convinced from the fundamental side that we should be selling any small relief rallies. There is no way that the ECB can be anything other than dovish, given […]

EUR/GBP: Happy to trade either side at the moment

Posted on - August 3, 2014 8:33 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The overall bias is still bearish but the market is caught short in thinning August markets, hence the rally at the end of last week; This pair has fallen a long way in a short space of time, so relief rallies are to be expected; I’m quite happy to try trading 50 pip moves either […]

Professional market staying very bearish on EUR

Posted on - July 8, 2014 6:59 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Citi FX strategy ‘trade of the week’ is short EUR/USD; Morgan Stanley ‘trade of the week’ is short EUR/JPY; I have not spoken to one professional trader over the last 3/4 weeks who is bullish EUR. Make of that what you will. I must say, I agree with all of the above but perhaps we first get […]

EUR/USD: Favour selling rallies keeping stops above last week’s highs

Posted on - July 7, 2014 7:56 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
EUR crosses continue to look very heavy and the weekly close below .8000 in EUR/GBP certainly strengthens the bear’s case. EUR/NZD is in a solid downtrend. EUR/JPY is still the great unknown; will the medium-term up-trend re-ignite or will longer-term Japanese investors be forced out of EZ assets through a move lower in the EUR/JPY […]

Another very quiet start to the week but volatility slowly increasing

Posted on - July 7, 2014 7:27 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
It’s been another very slow start to the interbank trading week with most of the major pairs hanging around Friday’s closing levels. There are no major economic events in Asia until the Chinese inflation data on Wednesday and of course the market will be hanging on the Fed minutes later the same day. Nevertheless, volatility […]
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