Posted on - May 20, 2014 8:10 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m helping Adam out over on Forexlive and even though there isn’t much to report on, I’ll be doing it anyway for a few days this week.
Posted on - October 23, 2013 5:45 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
It’s been all about the crosses today and after the JPY crosses got smashed in the 2nd half of the Asian session, I guess its no surprise to see the CHF crosses coming under fire during European trade. John from MNI, who always has impeccable sources, is reporting in the FXWW-RM chat room that a […]
Posted on - September 30, 2013 8:06 am (Australia/Sydney) |
June lows at 1.2215 hold for now (see chart); Political turmoil in the US and Italy are heaping on ‘risk-aversion’ pressure; PBs report that their clients are mainly long of this pair; The market expects SNB bids sooner rather than later.
Posted on - September 20, 2013 7:02 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Macro funds started dumping USD/CHF immediately after yesterday’s FOMC and this heavy supply hasn’t really let up since. JPY bears have returned in force with risk-on the obvious mantra. The market is already short of Yen but may have a long way to go before it gets to extreme levels. CHF/JPY took out consolidation highs […]
Posted on - September 19, 2013 6:37 am (Australia/Sydney) |
EUR/CHF has fallen since the Fed no-taper decision which doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense but it’s all about where the stop-loss orders are. One of the big Prime Brokers reported yesterday that there were large macro-fund stops in USD/CHF and they have either been targeted, or the longs have gone to […]
Posted on - August 27, 2013 2:57 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
USD/TRY has hit fresh highs near 2.0060 which might spark further risk aversion amongst the major pairs. AUD/JPY bore the brunt in Asia but maybe we see some action in the CHF crosses during European trade.
Posted on - August 14, 2013 9:27 am (Australia/Sydney) |
USD/CHF has been a significant mover over the last few days and the short squeeze could pick up momentum above .9400 (see chart). Cable is retracing off its recent highs but I’m still in dip-buying mode. Support on the day at previous highs near 1.5390 but I prefer to wait for levels closer to 1.5280. […]
Posted on - August 6, 2013 10:14 am (Australia/Sydney) |
EUR/CHF seems destined to grind the bulls into submission again and it looks as if some of the bigger players took advantage of still-reasonable liquidity to get out of stale longs. Big Swiss players were reported selling in size near 1.2330 overnight.
Posted on - July 29, 2013 3:57 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
We are witnessing some hefty positional liquidation across the so-called ‘risk’ pairs and I think those who’ve been trying to buy EUR/CHF or GBP/JPY or the like will need to be careful over the next few days. I’m not yet 100% sure that this move is USD-driven rather than risk-driven so I’d suggest that you […]
Posted on - July 22, 2013 2:09 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m giving up on this pair yet again and taking my 20 pip loss. I bought a small position last week at 1.2375 but the rally in Gold and Silver has me a little worried that the risk-aversion trades might take over in the FX market so I’ve sold out at 1.2355. EUR/JPY is 50 […]
Posted on - July 15, 2013 5:13 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Just going through the charts and I found this nice risk-reward trade in EUR/CHF (see chart). The trend looks reasonably constructive and the most recent rally from 1.2275 to 1.2465 has retraced exactly 61.8%. I’ve taken a long position at 1.2375 with a 50 pip stop and a measured target at 1.2550.
Posted on - July 10, 2013 7:27 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The AUD was the first mover, recovering after poor domestic business conditions data and taking out stops in AUD/JPY above 92.50. The market has closed above this important technical level and I’m firmly in the buy-dip camp on this cross. EUR/CHF was the next mover with real-money and hedge fund buyers emerging in early Europe […]
Posted on - July 9, 2013 4:30 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Exactly the same as yesterday, Swiss-based hedge funds have been buying the cross in early trade. Not sure what they know if anything, but best not bet against the so-called “smart” money!
Posted on - July 8, 2013 6:31 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
We have all read this story before and it certainly makes plenty of sense, but the trouble is that so many times we’ve had the false promise of a big bullish break that most of us have given up on it. Well it seems some of the bigger European hedge funds are having another go […]
Posted on - June 24, 2013 3:45 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Definitely not a pair that I pay a lot of attention to but my brief analysis below on the Yen crosses concluded that AUD/JPY looks bullish but CHF/JPY looks toppy, ergo we should be buying AUD/CHF! But, AUD/NZD is in a fairly solid medium term down-trend and our earlier look at EUR/NZD showed a bearish […]
Posted on - June 24, 2013 3:32 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m presuming that we don’t get any major economic or political statements out of the EZ, and if we don’t then the Yen crosses look like the most likely causes of volatility. The move higher in USD yields have given the USD/JPY a bid tone and this could move over to the crosses as well. […]
Posted on - June 19, 2013 5:21 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I know that my view is not shared by everyone, but with the Fed likely to implement some QE tapering, or at least more strongly telegraph it (excellent article on the subject from Nomura), this is how I think the market will react. I’m basing my views on recent market moves, especially what happened in […]
Posted on - June 13, 2013 2:36 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I know I was all bulled up on USD/CHF a few weeks ago but at least I can say in my defence that I sensed the error of my ways on time and managed to get out at a very healthy level. Now that EUR/CHF is headed back towards 1.2200, should we be buying this […]