Crypto-world: Putting the hedge back in hedge fund
Over the last few years I’ve seen much of the very promising global macro trading talent jump ship and head to the dark side- cryptoworld! The reasons are plentiful; volatility, uncertainty, arbitrage, excitement etc. All the stuff we used to love in the currency markets 30 years ago. Even the market lull of the last
Spending a few days back on Forexlive
I’m helping Adam out over on Forexlive and even though there isn’t much to report on, I’ll be doing it anyway for a few days this
GBP/CHF: Large seller emerges in early London
It’s been all about the crosses today and after the JPY crosses got smashed in the 2nd half of the Asian session, I guess its no surprise to see the CHF crosses coming under fire during European trade. John from MNI, who always has impeccable sources, is reporting in the FXWW-RM chat room that a
EUR/CHF: Recent lows holding for now near 1.2215
June lows at 1.2215 hold for now (see chart); Political turmoil in the US and Italy are heaping on ‘risk-aversion’ pressure; PBs report that their clients are mainly long of this pair; The market expects SNB bids sooner rather than
CHF/JPY big mover over the last 24 hours
Macro funds started dumping USD/CHF immediately after yesterday’s FOMC and this heavy supply hasn’t really let up since. JPY bears have returned in force with risk-on the obvious mantra. The market is already short of Yen but may have a long way to go before it gets to extreme levels. CHF/JPY took out consolidation highs
USD/CHF: Macro-fund stops targeted below .9130
EUR/CHF has fallen since the Fed no-taper decision which doesn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense but it’s all about where the stop-loss orders are. One of the big Prime Brokers reported yesterday that there were large macro-fund stops in USD/CHF and they have either been targeted, or the longs have gone to
TRY hits fresh lows against the USD
USD/TRY has hit fresh highs near 2.0060 which might spark further risk aversion amongst the major pairs. AUD/JPY bore the brunt in Asia but maybe we see some action in the CHF crosses during European
European currencies range-bound in Asia: USD/CHF squeezing shorts
USD/CHF has been a significant mover over the last few days and the short squeeze could pick up momentum above .9400 (see chart). Cable is retracing off its recent highs but I’m still in dip-buying mode. Support on the day at previous highs near 1.5390 but I prefer to wait for levels closer to 1.5280.
EUR/CHF: Big Swiss players noted sellers overnight
EUR/CHF seems destined to grind the bulls into submission again and it looks as if some of the bigger players took advantage of still-reasonable liquidity to get out of stale longs. Big Swiss players were reported selling in size near 1.2330
Care is warranted on JPY and CHF crosses
We are witnessing some hefty positional liquidation across the so-called ‘risk’ pairs and I think those who’ve been trying to buy EUR/CHF or GBP/JPY or the like will need to be careful over the next few days. I’m not yet 100% sure that this move is USD-driven rather than risk-driven so I’d suggest that you
EUR/CHF: Chopping my longs for tiny loss as risk-aversion returns
I’m giving up on this pair yet again and taking my 20 pip loss. I bought a small position last week at 1.2375 but the rally in Gold and Silver has me a little worried that the risk-aversion trades might take over in the FX market so I’ve sold out at 1.2355. EUR/JPY is 50
EUR/CHF: Nice risk-reward in going long at present levels
Just going through the charts and I found this nice risk-reward trade in EUR/CHF (see chart). The trend looks reasonably constructive and the most recent rally from 1.2275 to 1.2465 has retraced exactly 61.8%. I’ve taken a long position at 1.2375 with a 50 pip stop and a measured target at
Wild moves on the crosses and more to come
The AUD was the first mover, recovering after poor domestic business conditions data and taking out stops in AUD/JPY above 92.50. The market has closed above this important technical level and I’m firmly in the buy-dip camp on this cross. EUR/CHF was the next mover with real-money and hedge fund buyers emerging in early Europe
EUR/CHF: European hedge funds buying again in early trade
Exactly the same as yesterday, Swiss-based hedge funds have been buying the cross in early trade. Not sure what they know if anything, but best not bet against the so-called “smart”
EUR/CHF bulls starting to return
We have all read this story before and it certainly makes plenty of sense, but the trouble is that so many times we’ve had the false promise of a big bullish break that most of us have given up on it. Well it seems some of the bigger European hedge funds are having another go
NZD/CHF: Looks like a bullish technical set-up
Definitely not a pair that I pay a lot of attention to but my brief analysis below on the Yen crosses concluded that AUD/JPY looks bullish but CHF/JPY looks toppy, ergo we should be buying AUD/CHF! But, AUD/NZD is in a fairly solid medium term down-trend and our earlier look at EUR/NZD showed a bearish
JPY crosses still likely to provide most market leads
I’m presuming that we don’t get any major economic or political statements out of the EZ, and if we don’t then the Yen crosses look like the most likely causes of volatility. The move higher in USD yields have given the USD/JPY a bid tone and this could move over to the crosses as well.
How to trade the FOMC event
I know that my view is not shared by everyone, but with the Fed likely to implement some QE tapering, or at least more strongly telegraph it (excellent article on the subject from Nomura), this is how I think the market will react. I’m basing my views on recent market moves, especially what happened in