This level for me is the final hurdle and if we bulls can take and hold above there then I think we will see some more strong gains. On the other hand, if risk sentiment sours and this level continues to hold, then we might see a slow grind lower towards 90 cents again? But

Yesterday’s China flash PMI data gave us yet another insight into the bullish momentum being generated by the AUD at present. Despite some relatively poor data, the AUD/USD dipped 30 pips but quickly regained those losses and is now trading higher. The big level for me is .9150/75 and if we get a clean break

There was talk last week of heavy stops in GBP/AUD below 1.8100 and it looks like they’ve just been targeted and triggered. Cable is 20 pips lower at 1.6470 and AUD/USD is 20 pips higher at .9100, a classic cross

For all of the reasons I gave last week I remain very bullish on the AUD/USD. In some ways I’m even hoping for a ‘bad’ number today out of China because if the market doesn’t react bearishly to a bad number, then we must be headed higher! Based on the price action from last week,

The AUD is making steady ground against all of the other majors in rather lack-lustre Asian trade. The big levels to watch are: AUD/USD, important resistance at .9150 with heavy stops likely above there; GBP/AUD, important support near 1.8120 with heavy option-related selling expected through 1.8100; AUD/NZD, previous lows now resistance at

The next move in interest rates will be up and this will happen well ahead of others like the US; Precious metals look to have put important lows in place; With the exception of the NZD amongst the other majors, the AUD looks to be putting a base in place against the GBP, JPY and

I’m still holding off on calling a base in the AUD/USD as we could get some extended sideways trading between .8900/.9150 but the case for the contrarian bulls is looking much stronger. China is still the main driver but this time it’s not Chinese imports of iron ore but Chinese money flowing into Australasian capital

Prime brokers refer to large offers starting above .9125 through .9140; Local bank reported very solid bids near .9065. If in doubt, stick to the

AUD/USD has been trading below it’s 200-dma for almost a year now but it looks like we are priming ourselves for another test. It comes in now near .9148 and we can expect plenty of big macro players to start re-assessing if we get a break above there. Most of the big players are very

The move by the PBOC to widen the USD/CNY trading band to 2% had been widely anticipated over the last few weeks. This should not have any effect on the AUD apart form the usual very short-term

If I were a total cynic, which of course I’m not, I would be saying that they are short 🙂 Our hedge fund insider in the FXWW chatroom is reporting that Goldman Sachs have revised their 12-month AUD/USD forecast down to 80 cents from 85 cents citing weak domestic demand and falling commodity

The price-action over the last few days in AUD/USD has been bullish in my view but I would like to see some technical justification before turning completely bullish. Short-term trend-lines and Fibo retracements will need to be obeyed if the market really is changing its colour. Current levels near .9020 is where the really heavy

There have been plenty of reasons over the last few weeks for the AUD to fall even further, risk-aversion out of Ukraine, collapsing commodity prices, verbal intervention from the RBA etc yet in spite of all this the AUD has actually strengthened slightly whilst all this has been going on. Am I calling a bottom

Both of these levels are now looking very strong and playing the edges of this range makes perfect sense to me. The NZD/USD looks very strong indeed and buying dips towards .8450/60 in expectation of fresh range highs makes most sense

AUD/NZD has traded down to 1.05 on 4 occasions in the last 30 years. Each time this level has held. We are currently trading near 1.0550 with the market eyeing recent lows at 1.0488. NZD/USD is closing in on daily highs at .8522 with more resistance behind there at

Equity markets across the region will open around 0.5% lower; Tensions in the Ukraine are still simmering and 1 headline could spark more risk aversion; The apparent terrorist attack on Malaysian Airlines will also increase risk aversion. After a long period of momentum-less trading, the AUD/USD suddenly broke higher last week. Nevertheless, many traders will

For me the AUD/NZD has always been a classic range trade in the long-term; buy it under 1.10, sell it above 1.35, and stay out of it around 1.20. I can’t see any reason to change this long-term view so I’m happy to stick with my long position from a few weeks ago and look

A former colleague of mine who now works in the real world, gets a very deep insight into actual retail demand in most of the major economic centres. He still follows the FX market very closely and his BIG CALL for the year is that AUD/USD will not see levels north of .91 cents and