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Model/hedge funds exiting AUD longs as market vols spike

Posted on - September 12, 2014 9:51 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The main driver behind the AUD selling this week would seem to be related to the sharp increase in market volatility. Model funds and hedge funds had built large AUD long positions across the board in recent weeks and months, while vols were at record lows. As soon as vols started to spike, the position […]

AUD/USD: Still long and looking wrong

Posted on - September 12, 2014 7:55 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
After the strong jobs data yesterday I’m quite amazed to see the AUD down across the board. But the market is always right and I will need to adjust my expectations. If AUD/USD starts to establish itself below .9100 then I will exit the position ahead of the weekend. I’m in at levels just below […]

AUD/USD update

Posted on - September 11, 2014 4:32 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The strong Australian jobs data has been forgotten and the AUD/USD is being dragged lower by a rampant USD against the Yen and NZD. I’m still of the view that a base will form now near yesterday’s lows so I’m happy to stick with my long position for now. Any lengthy break onto the 90 […]

AUD/USD: Adding to long position

Posted on - September 11, 2014 8:01 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I bought AUD/USD yesterday on the dip below .9150 and I’m adding to this position this morning near .9150 opening levels. Obviously this is a bit risky with Australian jobs data due later this morning, but the market has done pretty much what I expected it to do and so I will back my instincts […]

RBNZ main risk event this morning

Posted on - September 11, 2014 6:57 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
The recent downtrend in the NZD has been very strong indeed and despite the upcoming RBNZ meeting, there has been little in the way of a decent bounce. So either the market is playing with trailing stops or the market isn’t as short as we are led to believe. Most local analysts have been saying […]

AUD/USD: Longs in play

Posted on - September 10, 2014 6:05 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 5 Comments
I must say it does look very heavy indeed but I’ve taken the plunge and bought in at .9150 and .9130. My intention is to double the position at .9090 and see what happens from there, but as always I will wait and see how it looks/feels down there.  

AUD/USD intraday outlook, Sept 10th

Posted on - September 10, 2014 7:34 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
The breaks below .9230 and .9200 in the same session show just how powerful the bear move has been. We’ve seen a swift 200 pip fall as the AUD has re-aligned on the crosses. Intraday resistance will start at .9230 and there will be lots of willing sellers there (according to pro-market chatter). On the […]

AUD/USD: Back to test important levels near .9270

Posted on - September 9, 2014 7:23 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The price action around this .9270 level has been quite bullish in recent weeks and when we look at the big moves in the EUR, GBP and JPY against the USD, it goes to show that something significant must be happening if this level can hold. That said, there will be plenty of stops below […]

NZD/USD: Bearish outlook after AUD/NZD breaks higher

Posted on - September 4, 2014 3:03 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
Again I’m on the sidelines here after failing to read this move correctly. The immediate break in AUD/NZD above important technical resistance between 1.1185/1.1220 is the driving factor and even though I’m overall a dip-buyer in NZD/USD, I think I’ll keep my ammunition dry for now. Lower levels towards .8225 certainly look possible. NZD/CAD is […]

AUD bears beaten back yet again

Posted on - September 4, 2014 7:57 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Like I’ve mentioned a few times in the last few days, price action at .9270 in the AUD/USD has been extremely instructive. Last week we saw iron ore prices fall heavily during Chinese trade when the AUD/USD was close to that level, yet it couldn’t break below. Yesterday we sat for most of the day […]

AUD unchanged after RBA decision and statement

Posted on - September 2, 2014 2:35 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The AUD “remains above most estimates of its fundamental value” according to the RBA statement but that’s having no impact on the AUD/USD which is glued to .9300. This has been one of the quieter reactions to the RBA decision in recent months. I still think .9270 is an important level, after it failed to […]

AUD: Don’t expect any surprises from the RBA today

Posted on - September 2, 2014 7:50 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The big week of central bank meetings kicks off today with the RBA. This is probably the most predictable of all meetings with no change in policy warranted and statement language also likely to stay steady. I’m still in the buy-dip camp on the AUD/USD on most time frames. Last week’s price action at .9270 […]

AUD/USD: Still prefer the buy-dip strategy, but extreme patience required

Posted on - August 29, 2014 8:04 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The price action at .9270 earlier in the week struck me as very bullish. There was quite a bit of AUD-negative news hitting the headlines at that time yet the AUD/USD couldn’t fall. I’m in dip-buying mode but as its Friday, I would not be at all surprised to see some AUD/JPY selling emerge during […]

AUD/USD: Capex data today; using .9270 as downside guide

Posted on - August 28, 2014 8:56 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The AUD/USD steadfastly refused to fall when the market was turning bullish on the USD, the big question now is will it also refuse to move if the USD turns the other way? Or will AUD/USD lead the way? We are unlikely to get any answers during today’s Asian session but I’m firmly in the […]

USD: Retracement or reversal- latter I think

Posted on - August 28, 2014 7:28 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
The USD bears will need a bit more evidence before getting overly excited but the recent price action in AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD certainly suggests that the greenback will struggle on these fronts. We often get impulsive market moves in September when the traditional holiday season has ended, and I’m definitely still of the opinion […]

NZD ticking higher as Fonterra headlines hit the newswires

Posted on - August 27, 2014 11:03 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
Fonterra forming partnership with Chinese infant-formula company Beingmate; Keeping NZ46 per kg milk price forecast; Expects global milk prices to rise later this year. NZD is trying to stage a mini-rally on the back of this news (many had been expecting something negative).

AUD/NZD: Waiting on Fonterra press conference

Posted on - August 27, 2014 10:19 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
AUD/NZD is sitting just below important technical resistance between 1.1185/1.1220 and the market is waiting on a global strategy announcement from the big dairy producer Fonterra. This is scheduled at 01:55 GMT but no-one in the market seems overly sure what this announcement will relate to.

NZD/USD and AUD/USD bounce off intraday lows

Posted on - August 26, 2014 3:09 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Despite some fairly bearish conditions, a disappointing trade balance in New Zealand and lower iron ore prices to affect the AUD, both Anzac currencies have bounced nicely against the USD. As the old adage goes, if currencies bounce amid bearish news/events then they must be going higher! Let’s wait and see.
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