Posted on - December 11, 2014 7:20 am (Australia/Sydney) |
If the FX market is one big interest rate play, as many would contend, then we should be in the ‘sell-rally’ camp when it comes to AUD/NZD. The RBNZ, very surprisingly in my view, added a hawkish tone to their monetary policy statement whilst the RBA have a definite dovish tone. A widening of the […]
Posted on - December 2, 2014 7:34 am (Australia/Sydney) |
There is a small chance that the RBA will refer to the possibility of further rate cuts but most professional analysts that I’ve read seem to consider this very unlikely. Continued stability on policy and language is the expected outcome. If this is the case, and with a large option expiry at .8500 later today, […]
Posted on - December 1, 2014 9:18 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Unconfirmed reports this morning that the Australian government is lowering it’s presumed iron ore price to $60/tonne; Little that the RBNZ can do about the overvalued NZD. The AUD has been under pressure in early interbank trade and with commodity prices in general unlikely to make any sudden recovery, this trend in the Aussie won’t […]
Posted on - November 19, 2014 7:01 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Nice call in AUD/NZD from Morgan Stanley last night to buy the dip ahead of the milk auction, and it turned out nicely with prices bottoming ahead of the consolidation-range base at 1.0900. The overnight lows were around 1.0935 and buying dips back towards this level over the next few sessions makes good sense, with […]
Posted on - November 18, 2014 6:57 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The minutes from the November meeting of the RBA will be released at 11.30 am Sydney time and they will be followed by some remarks from Governor Glenn Stevens. The market will be looking out for any mention of the AUD level. Any rallies towards .8800 will run into heavy selling interest and dips to […]
Posted on - November 10, 2014 6:59 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I saw some pretty impressive technical calls on Friday suggesting that an interim base was forming in the Kiwi and it looks like these guys have called it perfectly. Weekend data out of China has given the commodity currencies another boost and after a 1200 pip fall, we may be about to see a decent […]
Posted on - November 7, 2014 7:30 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Shortish-term resistance now firming at .8650 breakdown level with support near the base of a bearish channel at .8400; playing the edges of this range with a bearish bias makes good sense. Longer term support levels at .8050 are the main downside target with resistance now likely to be super firm at .8850ish. AUD/NZD looks […]
Posted on - November 6, 2014 3:25 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
The NZD/USD did trade marginally below prior weekly lows at .7680 but has now bounced after the sharp sell-off in USD/JPY. Contrarian bulls can consider buying another intraday dip towards .7680 with tight stops, looking for levels near .7825- a nice R/R possibility.
Posted on - November 6, 2014 7:00 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Congrats to the AUD/USD bears who have cracked a big technical support level at .8645 and will now look to cement their position of strength with a weekly close below this level. Bearish momentum is very strong on all time frames and the next big support level is not until .8050. There will be intraday […]
Posted on - November 4, 2014 8:40 am (Australia/Sydney) |
NZD/USD: Weekly technical support at .7680; AUD/USD: Sitting presently near .8675 which is where the Sovereign buyers were last time around, with major technical support at .8645 just below; ABS labour force statement at 11:30 Sydney time; AUD/NZD: Major resistance at 1.1300; RBA rate decision and statement at 2:30 pm Sydney time.
Posted on - October 30, 2014 7:04 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The cross has made a big move over the last few hours and selling into resistance levels near current market at 1.1285 does make good risk-reward sense. The market will pore over the RBNZ language but I doubt that the cross has the momentum to take out these levels without a fight.
Posted on - October 27, 2014 5:31 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m not overly sure of my levels just yet as I haven’t been trading this pair very actively. The EUR remains friendless and is likely to stay that way whilst I believe the bearish case against the AUD has been overdone. I will stay patient and see how the short-term market develops but I’m in […]
Posted on - October 27, 2014 7:20 am (Australia/Sydney) |
It will be a quiet week for the AUD on the economic calendar and movements will be driven by commodity and equity markets as well as positional adjustments. The iron ore price has stabilised near $80 and the longer that this price consolidation continues, the more likely AUD shorts are to start covering. Risk sentiment […]
Posted on - October 24, 2014 7:48 am (Australia/Sydney) |
AUD/USD has been trading in a wedge formation all week and the parameters are pretty tight now at .8735/.8810 approx. The AUD has made strong gains on some of the crosses this week (AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, AUD/GBP) but the USD is also very strong so it’s still a bit of a coin toss in my opinion […]
Posted on - October 23, 2014 9:35 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Q3 CPI came in at 0.3% QoQ which was well below expectations. The NZD/USD is 100 pips lower since NZ opened this morning. Next support levels are around .7820 and I’m sure there will be some stale shorts out there who will be availing of this significant dip.
Posted on - October 22, 2014 5:55 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I’ve been long all week and the market is 30 pips higher! My general market timing has been very poor in recent weeks so I’m exiting this trade and will reassess. This is a ‘hope’ rather than ‘conviction’ trade and they usually turn sour in my experience. I’ve really got no strong views so back […]
Posted on - October 21, 2014 3:20 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m happy to stick with my long position from yesterday but gains from here through .8850 are expected to be hard fought indeed. Interbank sources are reporting decent selling interest between .8825/50. That said, stop-loss buy orders above .8850 are likely to be very heavy so I will stick with the long trade ands see […]
Posted on - October 20, 2014 8:54 am (Australia/Sydney) |
GPIF news from the weekend will have an impact on AUD/JPY sentiment; There is still expected to be some residual interest from Sovereign players to buy AUD/USD for bond issuances; Charts show short-term consolidation between .8650/.8850. The market has opened around .8760 this morning and I’m playing this pair with a bullish bias.