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Exiting AUD/USD longs at break-even (yet again)

Posted on - March 6, 2015 4:25 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I don’t like these momentum-less sideways markets which are then followed by a 50:50 bet in the form of an NFP number. I’ve exited my post-RBA longs at break-even and will sit back and wait for a clear opportunity.

Post-RBA price action suggests to me that AUD/USD goes higher quite soon

Posted on - March 3, 2015 2:52 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
There was a pop in the AUD/USD just prior to the RBA rate decision and this occurred because all the big local players and prime brokers pulled their bids and offers out of the market around 30 seconds prior to the announcement. With existing shorts at quite extreme levels, I don’t think it will take […]

Market split 50:50 on RBA decision today

Posted on - March 3, 2015 6:47 am (Australia/Sydney) |
There is a very even split amongst analysts and interest rate traders as to what the RBA will do today. The casting vote from the ‘chairman of RBA watchers’, Terry McCrann, would seem to suggest that they stay on hold this time due primarily to the white-hot property market. AUD/USD sentiment remains very heavy but […]

AUD/USD steady in early trade, not reacting to Chinese rate cuts

Posted on - March 2, 2015 7:14 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The market has been expecting some stimulative measures from the PBOC and perhaps that’s the reason for the lack of reaction from the AUD market. The Chinese central bank cut the benchmark lending rate by 25 bps to 5.35% and the benchmark saving rate, also by 25 bps, to 2.5%. AUD/USD is having difficulty establishing […]

AUD/USD: Still long, hoping for a break above .7850/70 resistance

Posted on - February 23, 2015 7:49 am (Australia/Sydney) |
It looks like there are still plenty of offers in the AUD/USD ahead of .7850 and we could be in for longer periods of sideways consolidation. I’m still running my long, bottom-picking, strategy and I need a break and hold above .7870 before I will consider elevating risk levels. There is nothing of note on […]

AUD/USD: .7850 still key short-term level topside

Posted on - February 20, 2015 7:04 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
There is talk in the market of a short-term exotic option structure which is corralling prices between .7750 and .7850. This is easier to do during the Chinese New Year holiday when turnover is lower. I expect this structure to roll off today and I’m hoping that the first move will be higher. I’m still […]

AUD/USD: Short-term exotic structure .7750/.7850

Posted on - February 20, 2015 11:18 am (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m not sure of the exact levels but the weight of bids towards .7750 and the weight of offers towards .7850 suggest that this is indeed a quick 100 pip play by one of the bigger players. All of the bigger interbank players were reporting similar order books yesterday. One source tells me that this […]

AUD/USD: Longs in play, hoping for a trend reversal

Posted on - February 18, 2015 6:58 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The AUD/USD has so far been unable to generate any sort of decent reversal momentum so this may well be another of my stubborn rather than clever trades! Who knows, we can only take positions as we see them and try and maximise the benefit. I added to my long play yesterday and will reduce […]

AUD/USD: Watching intraday support at .7725

Posted on - February 13, 2015 8:05 am (Australia/Sydney) |
AUD/USD traders had been eyeing important technical support at .7725 and yesterday’s break below, and the subsequent poor jobs data, would seem to have confirmed that more downside was ahead. The Australasian market walks in this morning to see AUD/USD back above that technical level and there will be seeds of doubt sown amongst the […]

AUD employment data today

Posted on - February 12, 2015 7:31 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The Reuters smart estimate would seem to suggest that we might get some worse than expected data.

AUD/USD: Basing formation negated

Posted on - February 12, 2015 7:06 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Contrarians had been hoping that an inverted H&S might develop on the short-term charts but the break below .7720 has now negated this possibility. With USD/JPY having seemingly found a fresh lease of life, USD bulls might remain in the ascendency for a few more sessions which will bring the recent Aussie lows near .7625 […]

AUD/USD touches .7860 after SoMP

Posted on - February 6, 2015 11:45 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The really heavy trailing stops must be a bit higher but the weaker ones have been triggered after the RBA’s quarterly Statement of Monetary Policy came out slightly less-dovish than expected.

AUD/USD: More range trading expected today, retail sales data due

Posted on - February 5, 2015 7:38 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The AUD/USD consolidated over the last 24 hours in a 100 pip range and we can expect more of the same today. Retail sales data is unlikely to have a big impact as the RBA’s monetary policy looks pretty much set in stone. The big levels to watch are at .7725/.7850 and a break of […]

AUD/USD: Looking to play .7725/.7850 intraday range

Posted on - February 4, 2015 8:14 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Spot AUD/USD is back to where we were yesterday pre-RBA but of course the AUD has lost significant ground against the EUR and CAD in particular. Reports in the market had suggested that some very big short positions have been built up, although the price action post-RBA did not seem to confirm this. There is […]

Local journalists seem pretty sure that RBA will cut rates

Posted on - February 3, 2015 11:58 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Central banks often like to smooth the way to any policy change by giving subtle hints to financial journalists. Two of Australia’s leading newspapers seem 95% convinced that we will get a 25 bps cut ┬áthis afternoon. Perhaps they’ve been given a subtle nod?

AUD: Market still comfortable staying short ahead of the RBA

Posted on - February 3, 2015 7:49 am (Australia/Sydney) |
One thing we can be pretty sure of is that the RBA will release a more dovish statement this afternoon and the market is betting heavily on this, with shorts at quite extreme levels already according to most interbank reports. There is certainly a possibility that they will cut rates today but I’m of the […]

Australian PM under increasing pressure

Posted on - February 2, 2015 7:42 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Tony Abbott will present a major speech to the Press Club later this evening and many expert analysts are predicting that his immediate political future will depend on his performance. His ruling Liberal Party suffered a humiliating defeat in weekend state elections and Mr Abbott has fallen out of favour with his own party after […]

AUD/USD: Long and wrong (for now) yet again

Posted on - January 30, 2015 8:22 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Such is the contrarians life, constantly getting burned while probing for the turn. Since Wednesday’s higher-than-expected CPI the market has fallen almost 300 pips which illustrates what the market’s sentiment is. Even EUR/AUD has made a sharp recovery, which shows exactly in what low terms the traders are thinking about the Aussie! But I stick […]
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