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AUD/USD: Still long- .8850 looks to be crucial level

Posted on - October 21, 2014 3:20 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
I’m happy to stick with my long position from yesterday but gains from here through .8850 are expected to be hard fought indeed. Interbank sources are reporting decent selling interest between .8825/50. That said, stop-loss buy orders above .8850 are likely to be very heavy so I will stick with the long trade ands see […]

AUD/USD: Playing from long side to start the week

Posted on - October 20, 2014 8:54 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
GPIF news from the weekend will have an impact on AUD/JPY sentiment; There is still expected to be some residual interest from Sovereign players to buy AUD/USD for bond issuances; Charts show short-term consolidation between .8650/.8850. The market has opened around .8760 this morning and I’m playing this pair with a bullish bias.

AUD/JPY: Looking bit ‘bottomy’ on short-term charts

Posted on - October 17, 2014 8:04 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Whilst the recent trend has at times been violently bearish, and it is risk-off Friday as well, the short-term charts are disagreeing and look a bit oversold to my contrarian eye. I’m pretty sure that we will get some movement here today and I’m thinking of starting small with a mild bullish bias whilst the […]

Back to the good old days of intraday volatility

Posted on - October 17, 2014 7:43 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Well here’s hoping at least. Price action over the last 24 hours has really taken me back in time. We had wild swings up and down in virtually every pair and we were spoilt for choice regarding which pairs to trade. The main questions for me were regarding the USD and the JPY crosses but […]

AUD/USD: Sovereign buyers related to new bond issue

Posted on - October 15, 2014 3:08 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
Once again the Sovereign buyers appeared in force when the AUD/USD dipped to .8680 and market chatter suggests that this is related to the new 2037 Australian bond issue. Sellers are also noted close-by near .8725/30 so we may be in for a short stint of range trading.

AUD/USD: Looks set to test .8650 yet again

Posted on - October 15, 2014 7:44 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
AUD/JPY has been the main driver overnight and levels above .8800 didn’t last long in AUD/USD. The overnight lows were around .8693 and interbank sources report that solid bids appeared near there. .8650 is major support on the weekly chart and it has held firm on two separate occasions this time around. One would suspect […]

Fairly quiet start to FX trading week

Posted on - October 13, 2014 7:13 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Japan and US holidays today China trade balance data released later this morning Plenty of stop-loss orders reported on the interbank books, particularly on the downside in the JPY crosses Big level to watch this morning will be .8650 in the AUD/USD.

AUD on stop-loss watch for Monday morning

Posted on - October 12, 2014 7:11 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
From the FXWW chatroom: AUD/USD: Heavy stops below .8650 on Monday morning will almost certainly get some very close scrutiny. 19:05:24 AUD/JPY: Heavy stops below 93.00 will come into play if above orders get triggered

USD/CAD: Still short but………….

Posted on - October 12, 2014 7:07 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
I’m a little out of the money on this trade but after a few decent intraday trades on Friday, my average does look a little better. I don’t believe strongly enough in this trade to take a big risk, so I will monitor early in the week and definitely exit above 1.1270. We may also […]

AUD/USD: Long position well and truly obliterated

Posted on - October 12, 2014 7:00 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 6 Comments
Another forlorn attempt by me to pick the base in the AUD/USD has come to nothing and the spate of negative events (tumbling iron ore prices, Chinese coal tariffs, dodgy jobs data etc) are all taking their toll on the little Aussie battler. I’m far from a believer in the AUD bear story but it’s […]

AUD/USD: Likely to be pressured as China reintroduces coal levies

Posted on - October 10, 2014 8:37 am (Australia/Sydney) | 3 Comments
Reports on Reuters say that China, which is the world’s largest importer of coal, will reintroduce import tariffs of between 3%-6%. Australia is the top supplier of coal to China and this news will definitely have an adverse effect on AUD sentiment heading into the weekend. Reports yesterday morning suggested solid bids in AUD/USD near […]

AUD volatile post jobs data

Posted on - October 9, 2014 12:22 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Some interesting price action after the Australian jobs data, which if anything was a bit disappointing. AUD/USD fell briefly below .8800 but has bounced sharply, taking out overnight highs, and intraday Algo traders have been caught short according to interbank sources. The next level of tecxhnical resistance is the oft-watched 20-DMA near .8855. I’m still […]

AUD/USD: Longs in play, look for short-term base now near .8770

Posted on - October 9, 2014 7:58 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
This is a similar trade idea to USD/CAD but the difference with the AUD/USD is that we get more volatility during Asian trade so I get more of an opportunity to trade around the position. I am entering this position at .8845 with a modest-sized trade and I will hopefully build on this over coming […]

ABS to revise recent Australian jobs data

Posted on - October 8, 2014 1:15 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments

AUD/USD: RBA today and I prefer to be long

Posted on - October 7, 2014 8:11 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The RBA will be steady as she goes with no change in policy or statement language, although there is a risk that, with the AUD/USD at more acceptable levels, the language may change subtly to start signalling a rate rise next year; The market is short AUD/USD and sentiment is bearish; Important technical support levels […]

AUD: Mixed bag on crosses should ensure consolidation

Posted on - October 2, 2014 8:00 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
AUD/USD trend remains bearish but important long-term technical support at .8660 held firm on the first test; AUD/JPY has started to retrace and could easily fall another 200 pips but the AUD does look reasonably inviting against the GBP in particular. Sounds like another perfect set-up for some range trading between .8650 and .8800 in […]

Sticking to the crosses for some shorter-term opportunities

Posted on - October 1, 2014 9:24 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
My longer-term fundamental view remains unchanged, the EUR, JPY and USD will struggle amid CB easy-ness and the commodity currencies will strengthen over time. The market has started buying USD in the mistaken belief that the Fed will significantly change its policy direction. We will see small changes, but no directional change. This is probably […]

AUD/USD: Technical support looming at .8660

Posted on - September 29, 2014 1:26 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The lows from January at .8660 are coming into view for the AUD/USD and they might encourage some bouts of profit-taking from those clever traders who’ve been short since 93 cents. AUD/NZD might also catch an up-draught after the comments and reports out of New Zealand. Contrarian bulls should keep their pencils sharpened, just in […]
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