Posted on - August 29, 2014 8:04 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The price action at .9270 earlier in the week struck me as very bullish. There was quite a bit of AUD-negative news hitting the headlines at that time yet the AUD/USD couldn’t fall. I’m in dip-buying mode but as its Friday, I would not be at all surprised to see some AUD/JPY selling emerge during […]
Posted on - August 28, 2014 8:56 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The AUD/USD steadfastly refused to fall when the market was turning bullish on the USD, the big question now is will it also refuse to move if the USD turns the other way? Or will AUD/USD lead the way? We are unlikely to get any answers during today’s Asian session but I’m firmly in the […]
Posted on - August 28, 2014 7:28 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The USD bears will need a bit more evidence before getting overly excited but the recent price action in AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD certainly suggests that the greenback will struggle on these fronts. We often get impulsive market moves in September when the traditional holiday season has ended, and I’m definitely still of the opinion […]
Posted on - August 27, 2014 11:03 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Fonterra forming partnership with Chinese infant-formula company Beingmate; Keeping NZ46 per kg milk price forecast; Expects global milk prices to rise later this year. NZD is trying to stage a mini-rally on the back of this news (many had been expecting something negative).
Posted on - August 27, 2014 10:19 am (Australia/Sydney) |
AUD/NZD is sitting just below important technical resistance between 1.1185/1.1220 and the market is waiting on a global strategy announcement from the big dairy producer Fonterra. This is scheduled at 01:55 GMT but no-one in the market seems overly sure what this announcement will relate to.
Posted on - August 26, 2014 3:09 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Despite some fairly bearish conditions, a disappointing trade balance in New Zealand and lower iron ore prices to affect the AUD, both Anzac currencies have bounced nicely against the USD. As the old adage goes, if currencies bounce amid bearish news/events then they must be going higher! Let’s wait and see.
Posted on - August 26, 2014 8:53 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The NZ has started sliding again after a July trade deficit of NZD690 million was recorded. The next major level to watch will be in the AUD/NZD cross at previously important support near 1.1185/00.
Posted on - August 26, 2014 8:37 am (Australia/Sydney) |
China had previously reported a narrowing of its trade deficit with New Zealand and this suggests that the NZ trade balance will slide into deficit for the first time in 10 months.
Posted on - August 26, 2014 7:51 am (Australia/Sydney) |
AUD/NZD still looks quite buoyant but AUD/USD has been in sideways mode for months and will eventually break. Falling iron-ore prices will help the AUD bear case and we may get a downside test in coming days especially if commodity prices stay soft. AUD/JPY has also failed to gain a foothold above 97.00 and I […]
Posted on - August 26, 2014 7:42 am (Australia/Sydney) |
AUD/NZD has been consolidating it’s break above 1.1100. I will have a closer look through the morning but this pair tends to move, consolidate, move. So look for a 1.1050/1.1200 type range over coming days with a medium-term buy-dip bias. NZD/JPY is starting to look a bit toppy on the medium-term charts and is definitely […]
Posted on - August 25, 2014 11:36 am (Australia/Sydney) |
AUD/NZD has obviously been the main mover, breaking and holding above 1.1100 and triggering plenty of long-NZD-liquidation; NZD/USD is sitting right on an important Fibo, .8345 is the 61.8% retracement of this years big rally from .8045 to .8835. A clean break below could set off more long-NZD liquidation so keep a close eye on […]
Posted on - August 25, 2014 7:50 am (Australia/Sydney) |
My macro views haven’t changed in the slightest, I am still looking to sell the USD, EUR and JPY and buy the CAD, GBP, AUD and NZD. Of course we are seeing some significant shifts inside of these 2 groups, with the USD making strong gains against the EUR and JPY, whilst the AUD and […]
Posted on - August 25, 2014 7:26 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Firstly it was EUR/USD where the stops were targeted, now its AUD/NZD which is the market focus. The market gapped nastily through 1.1100/10 to trade above 1.1150. There is very little technical resistance until 1.1200.
Posted on - August 22, 2014 4:42 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Not my side at all, but there are some decent risk/reward trades for the USD bulls in both USD/CAD and NZD/USD near current levels. .8420/25 has been somewhat of a pivot in NZD/USD in recent times and this was the breakdown level earlier this week. I’d expect selling interest to be solid in and around […]
Posted on - August 22, 2014 8:05 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Friday’s are often risk-off trading days in Asia, but it would take a brave trader to go short AUD/JPY after it has now closed above previously strong resistance at 96.40. On the other hand, both AUD/USD and USD/JPY have flattered to deceive in recent times, threatening to break out of ranges only to slide back […]
Posted on - August 21, 2014 4:09 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
The channel top in AUD/NZD at 1.1100 held nicely this morning and the bulls out there will be a little worried. I have the feeling that AUD/USD might have a serious test of .9200 later tonight and that should have some impact on the cross. That said, the recent trend has been bullish in AUD/NZD […]
Posted on - August 21, 2014 7:05 am (Australia/Sydney) |
AUD/NZD is sitting right at the upper end of a solid trend channel and should attract technical selling; AUD and CAD have lagged somewhat in recent days as the USD has rallied and both may be due for some ‘catch-up’; Momentum has been lacking but sentiment is generally bearish I feel and AUD/USD feels more […]
Posted on - August 20, 2014 5:28 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
The market got within 5 pips of my initial profit target at .8520 before crumbling, but such are the vagaries of the FX market. I don’t believe strongly enough in this trade to take any extra risk so rather than try to start trading in an uncommitted fashion, I will take a very small loss […]