Posted on - October 30, 2014 7:04 am (Australia/Sydney) |
The cross has made a big move over the last few hours and selling into resistance levels near current market at 1.1285 does make good risk-reward sense. The market will pore over the RBNZ language but I doubt that the cross has the momentum to take out these levels without a fight.
Posted on - October 27, 2014 5:31 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m not overly sure of my levels just yet as I haven’t been trading this pair very actively. The EUR remains friendless and is likely to stay that way whilst I believe the bearish case against the AUD has been overdone. I will stay patient and see how the short-term market develops but I’m in […]
Posted on - October 27, 2014 7:20 am (Australia/Sydney) |
It will be a quiet week for the AUD on the economic calendar and movements will be driven by commodity and equity markets as well as positional adjustments. The iron ore price has stabilised near $80 and the longer that this price consolidation continues, the more likely AUD shorts are to start covering. Risk sentiment […]
Posted on - October 24, 2014 7:48 am (Australia/Sydney) |
AUD/USD has been trading in a wedge formation all week and the parameters are pretty tight now at .8735/.8810 approx. The AUD has made strong gains on some of the crosses this week (AUD/NZD, AUD/JPY, AUD/GBP) but the USD is also very strong so it’s still a bit of a coin toss in my opinion […]
Posted on - October 23, 2014 9:35 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Q3 CPI came in at 0.3% QoQ which was well below expectations. The NZD/USD is 100 pips lower since NZ opened this morning. Next support levels are around .7820 and I’m sure there will be some stale shorts out there who will be availing of this significant dip.
Posted on - October 22, 2014 5:55 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I’ve been long all week and the market is 30 pips higher! My general market timing has been very poor in recent weeks so I’m exiting this trade and will reassess. This is a ‘hope’ rather than ‘conviction’ trade and they usually turn sour in my experience. I’ve really got no strong views so back […]
Posted on - October 21, 2014 3:20 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m happy to stick with my long position from yesterday but gains from here through .8850 are expected to be hard fought indeed. Interbank sources are reporting decent selling interest between .8825/50. That said, stop-loss buy orders above .8850 are likely to be very heavy so I will stick with the long trade ands see […]
Posted on - October 20, 2014 8:54 am (Australia/Sydney) |
GPIF news from the weekend will have an impact on AUD/JPY sentiment; There is still expected to be some residual interest from Sovereign players to buy AUD/USD for bond issuances; Charts show short-term consolidation between .8650/.8850. The market has opened around .8760 this morning and I’m playing this pair with a bullish bias.
Posted on - October 17, 2014 8:04 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Whilst the recent trend has at times been violently bearish, and it is risk-off Friday as well, the short-term charts are disagreeing and look a bit oversold to my contrarian eye. I’m pretty sure that we will get some movement here today and I’m thinking of starting small with a mild bullish bias whilst the […]
Posted on - October 17, 2014 7:43 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Well here’s hoping at least. Price action over the last 24 hours has really taken me back in time. We had wild swings up and down in virtually every pair and we were spoilt for choice regarding which pairs to trade. The main questions for me were regarding the USD and the JPY crosses but […]
Posted on - October 15, 2014 3:08 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Once again the Sovereign buyers appeared in force when the AUD/USD dipped to .8680 and market chatter suggests that this is related to the new 2037 Australian bond issue. Sellers are also noted close-by near .8725/30 so we may be in for a short stint of range trading.
Posted on - October 15, 2014 7:44 am (Australia/Sydney) |
AUD/JPY has been the main driver overnight and levels above .8800 didn’t last long in AUD/USD. The overnight lows were around .8693 and interbank sources report that solid bids appeared near there. .8650 is major support on the weekly chart and it has held firm on two separate occasions this time around. One would suspect […]
Posted on - October 13, 2014 7:13 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Japan and US holidays today China trade balance data released later this morning Plenty of stop-loss orders reported on the interbank books, particularly on the downside in the JPY crosses Big level to watch this morning will be .8650 in the AUD/USD.
Posted on - October 12, 2014 7:11 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
From the FXWW chatroom: AUD/USD: Heavy stops below .8650 on Monday morning will almost certainly get some very close scrutiny. 19:05:24 AUD/JPY: Heavy stops below 93.00 will come into play if above orders get triggered
Posted on - October 12, 2014 7:07 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
I’m a little out of the money on this trade but after a few decent intraday trades on Friday, my average does look a little better. I don’t believe strongly enough in this trade to take a big risk, so I will monitor early in the week and definitely exit above 1.1270. We may also […]
Posted on - October 12, 2014 7:00 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Another forlorn attempt by me to pick the base in the AUD/USD has come to nothing and the spate of negative events (tumbling iron ore prices, Chinese coal tariffs, dodgy jobs data etc) are all taking their toll on the little Aussie battler. I’m far from a believer in the AUD bear story but it’s […]
Posted on - October 10, 2014 8:37 am (Australia/Sydney) |
Reports on Reuters say that China, which is the world’s largest importer of coal, will reintroduce import tariffs of between 3%-6%. Australia is the top supplier of coal to China and this news will definitely have an adverse effect on AUD sentiment heading into the weekend. Reports yesterday morning suggested solid bids in AUD/USD near […]
Posted on - October 9, 2014 12:22 pm (Australia/Sydney) |
Some interesting price action after the Australian jobs data, which if anything was a bit disappointing. AUD/USD fell briefly below .8800 but has bounced sharply, taking out overnight highs, and intraday Algo traders have been caught short according to interbank sources. The next level of tecxhnical resistance is the oft-watched 20-DMA near .8855. I’m still […]