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AUD/USD: Long and wrong (for now) yet again

Posted on - January 30, 2015 8:22 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Such is the contrarians life, constantly getting burned while probing for the turn. Since Wednesday’s higher-than-expected CPI the market has fallen almost 300 pips which illustrates what the market’s sentiment is. Even EUR/AUD has made a sharp recovery, which shows exactly in what low terms the traders are thinking about the Aussie! But I stick […]

Bank analysts uniform in their expectations for RBA rate cuts

Posted on - January 28, 2015 4:53 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Well actually is would be much more of a surprise if they actually differed from each other. The logic being I suppose that if you get it wrong, at least everyone else got it wrong also! The consensus remains that February is probably a bit early for an actual cut and we will probably get […]

AUD: Weighted mean CPI +2.3% YoY, slightly above expectations

Posted on - January 28, 2015 11:34 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
I’m looking to add to AUD/USD longs on dips as this result should ensure that any rate cuts are delayed and could cause AUD/USD short-covering.

AUD/USD: We can expect high volatility around CPI data

Posted on - January 28, 2015 7:20 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The market is bearish AUD/USD and today’s CPI data could determine whether it stays that way. The market is writing in around a 40% chance of an imminent rate cut and with all other global central banks (bar perhaps the RBNZ) in ‘easy’ mode, any lower than expected ‘weighted mean’ CPI would certainly reinforce the […]

AUD: Important days ahead

Posted on - January 27, 2015 7:31 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Iron ore prices fell sharply again overnight and precious metals also stalled their recent run higher. Short-covering in the EUR/USD elicited a similar reaction from the AUD/USD, which offset the negative metals influence, but it will be very important to see how the Asian market reacts today. Is the market happy to stay short AUD/USD […]

AUD/USD: Edging into fresh long position

Posted on - January 26, 2015 11:13 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
EUR/AUD is bearish to my eye and will head back below 1.3000 in coming months; AUD/JPY looks technically very oversold on short-term charts; AUD/USD has fallen from above 1.00 to below .80 on the back of supposed tightening US monetary policy which still hasn’t happened. Even if/when it does, will it be a case of […]

AUD/USD: Reserve buyers noted on dips today

Posted on - January 22, 2015 7:59 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
Some nice snippets in the FXWW chatroom today regarding the AUD/USD. Reserve buyers have been notable on dips, and their amounts are usually significant. On the flip side, one of the big local banks reported that offers have been lowered from .8250 to .8150 by corporate and macro accounts.

Prefer to trade USD/JPY and AUD/USD pre- and post-ECB

Posted on - January 22, 2015 4:54 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The EUR will be whippy and silly at times I’m sure and even the GBP will get turbulent with EUR/GBP flows. I prefer to trade slightly ‘independent’ pairs like USD/JPY or AUD/USD during EUR-related risk events like today. We should get volatility but prices should return to some sort of normal value soon afterwards. USD/JPY […]

AUD/USD: Market pricing in 50% chance of February rate cut

Posted on - January 22, 2015 7:30 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The CAD, AUD and NZD are always tightly correlated and the surprise overnight move by the BoC to cut its targeted overnight rate to 0.75% caught the market totally off guard and send the CAD tumbling. Now the market will begin speculating on whether the RBA and the RBNZ will need to follow suit? The […]

NZ CPI on this morning’s calendar

Posted on - January 20, 2015 7:14 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
The Reuters smart estimate (see table) suggests a little bit of downside risk for the NZD this morning. AUD/NZD is in a 200-pip holding range (as usual), this time between 1.0450/1.0650 and we will need to see a clean break outside of this to create momentum in either direction. NZD/USD has also been stuck in […]

What are the next big positions at risk

Posted on - January 15, 2015 10:02 pm (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
That’s the question I’m asking myself after the rout in EUR/CHF. There will be absolute horror stories to emerge from the market and that usually means that other positions get culled to pay for the bad ones. Let’s put it this way, I wouldn’t be short AUD, CAD or Gold for the next few sessions!

AUD higher after very strong employment data

Posted on - January 15, 2015 11:34 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
TheĀ AustralianĀ economy added 37,400 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.1% with a slightly improved participation rate. Very strong data indeed and the AUD/USD has jumped back to 82 cents from .8145 just prior.

AUD: Unemployment data on today’s calendar

Posted on - January 15, 2015 7:30 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments

AUD/USD: Pick a 200 pip range for this week

Posted on - January 12, 2015 7:37 am (Australia/Sydney) | 1 Comment
The downtrend in AUD/USD is quite strong but it’s already come a long way and the AUD looks reasonably strong on the crosses especially against the European currencies. That sounds like a recipe for range trading and I’d use this mornings opening levels at .8200 as a mid-point for the week. There is short-term resistance […]

AUD/USD: Heavy interest both sides of market

Posted on - January 8, 2015 7:49 am (Australia/Sydney) | 3 Comments
Large bids are being reported towards .8000 which suggests significant optionality. There will be stops below there but local banks here in Australia seem to be of the opinion that these levels will be tough to breach. Prime brokers are not reporting many topside trailing stops, which is interesting heading into the NFP. Looks to […]

Oil, Copper fall heavily; likely to influence AUD/JPY in particular

Posted on - January 6, 2015 7:30 am (Australia/Sydney) | 2 Comments
Crude oil prices dipped below $50/bbl for the first time in over 5 years and copper prices also fell heavily during NY trade. This sentiment is likely to carry over into the Asian market and pairs like AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY might be vulnerable to some increasing downward pressure.

AUD/NZD: Pretty clear ‘sell-rally’ play

Posted on - December 11, 2014 7:20 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
If the FX market is one big interest rate play, as many would contend, then we should be in the ‘sell-rally’ camp when it comes to AUD/NZD. The RBNZ, very surprisingly in my view, added a hawkish tone to their monetary policy statement whilst the RBA have a definite dovish tone. A widening of the […]

RBA: No change in policy or language expected

Posted on - December 2, 2014 7:34 am (Australia/Sydney) | 0 Comments
There is a small chance that the RBA will refer to the possibility of further rate cuts but most professional analysts that I’ve read seem to consider this very unlikely. Continued stability on policy and language is the expected outcome. If this is the case, and with a large option expiry at .8500 later today, […]
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