RBA: Case gets stronger for a 25bps cut tomorrow

I think it should be a foregone conclusion that the RBA cuts tomorrow, given what’s happening at the Fed, ECB, BOJ etc and the fall in commodity prices but as we know Mr Stevens is a careful hawk. In fact I think he should probably consider a quick-start 50bps cut to get the AUD back below parity against the USD, but that’s another story.

Today’s retail sales and internet jobs data should strengthen the ‘easing’ case, with both coming in well below expectations.

  1. I am saying it again “It won’t cut”. I am sure abt it. aussie is at a reaonable valuation. may be cut in july. not now

  2. Checking in on holidays in Samoa, it’s beautiful here. I think overall aussie is headed to parity regardless of whether RBA cut now or next month(s)

    If they don’t cut today, there should be a minor rebound and I would sell ahead of 0330ish and again at 0380ish with a stop 50 or 100 above.

    If they cut today, my inclination would be to sell the break but i really dont like the look of the R&R on this trade

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