AUD,NZD/EUR/USD/FXWW News/GBP crosses/Trade Ideas

Cable: Why its headed back toward 2.10

  • AUD/USD was toppy at 1.07 but is oversold at .90 and will retrace from here back towards 1.00, BUT
  • AUD/NZD is bearish and headed below 1.12 which puts NZD/USD near .90, BUT
  • EUR/NZD is forming a long-term basing formation and will return to 1.80, putting EUR/USD at 1.60, BUT
  • EUR/GBP is overvalued on a long-term perspective and is headed back towards ‘fairer value’ at .75 ERGO
  • Cable will be back trading above 2.10 within the next 18 months.

It’s pretty easy, this FX trading 🙂 Remember when it gets there that you heard it here first 🙂

I am being partially serious. The crosses in the FX market are out of alignment and something is going to have to happen to get them back to more ‘neutral’ levels.

  1. Sean, this is definitely very interesting view and given the Fed begins to wind back and the other parts of the world still lags these are very bold calls. Unless we are not trading interest rate expectations anymore?

  2. Yes Lio, forgot to mention that one 🙂

    I’m exaggerating Jason but the crosses will play a big part in the next FX mkt moves and if we look at historics then we get a sense of what is possible

  3. Hi Sean,

    Are there still notable stops below 8460? My guess those who were long trailed them already up as we rallied to 8590. Any order info on EUR/GBP? Thanks

  4. Sorry Milan, I’m away from Sydney for few days and out of loop. I’m guessing you are correct and the stops were trailed or sellers went to mkt already.

  5. Apologies for the mis-guidance there James; timing is all that matters as we know. I also got stopped and will sit it out for a while, only running very small core AUD/USD longs now

  6. No need to apologise, Sean as I went in with my eyes wide open. Also was short EURAUD, long gold and AUD so overall it was a flat day – but I am keen to clock up a plus day soon!!

    Seems to me the real agenda around the CBs of the world at the moment is trying to weaken domestic currencies – those who do are succeeding, those who do not are in the queue waiting their turn (so on that front, RBA’s Stevens has only recently got the nod.)

    In such an environment, bondholders are quietly being bled to death. It is building for a cathartic move in a number of financial markets if this is the truth.

  7. Sorry to hear about it, Sean, I know firsthand how bad it feels to get stopped out of a position that I patiently built over time 🙁
    Went long cable myself at 1.5130 and still holding it.
    Kinda hoping that NFP will bail me out, a dangerous notion, I know but it’s either that or a longer wait until cable goes up again.
    Do you think that thin markets got something to do with it? Just the other day there was a very bullish engulfing candle.
    I know you are still licking your wounds but what’s your view on cable for the next 2-3 days?

  8. Timing is always the most important element Gus. Lot depends on what happens to EUR/USD, if it breaks lower on heavy cross selling then cable will likely test 14830

  9. yesterday,fast drop of cable,broke up channel support line,kick out a new impulse down leg,now,have to find good level to short it。UK expectation of GDP,inflation,money supply,unemployment,etc,are disppointed in next 6 months。

    Carney action are waited。???

  10. Sean you are going to be a very rich man if you really believe that Cable is going to 2.10 and eurgbp to 75, or maybe you are just mad !!!

    Think you need to adjust your targets !!!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *