Big week of central bank meetings
There were plenty of surprises last week between the Fed and the BOJ, sending USD/JPY screaming higher by nearly 5% on the week. This week we will hear from the ECB, BOE and firstly the RBA, I wonder will they cause as much volatility?
The BOE is likely to be the least contentious with no change in policy and no subsequent statement.
The RBA will leave rates unchanged but may drop the forward guidance referring to a period of steady interest rates. This would be seen by the market as AUD positive.
The ECB will also keep monetary policy unchanged but Draghi has shown a tendency to surprise the market with some of his statements and after the events of last week, I would not be surprised if he said something market-moving this week also.
If this all plays out, then being short EUR/GBP would seem like a logical play for the week ahead.