Others/Trade Ideas

Big big picture still pointing to higher USD/CHF, 1.10 perhaps

My entry timing has left a lot to be desired in recent weeks but I’ve been able to pick up a decent part of the this months up move in the EUR. The way I see the world, the next big move will be an aggressive uptrend in USD/CHF.
EUR/CHF has turned and the flight of over-committed asset managers out of CHF assets will continue.
The weakening of the Yen has made the market more susceptible to big moves.
Speculators will be wary of continually selling Yen given the increasing rhetoric about competitive devaluations. As the CHF is undoubtedly historically overbought, there will be much less opposition to selling the CHF.
EUR/USD is in a medium term range trade and will oscillate as the market swings in sentiment between the two biggest currencies.

I’ve started building a USD/CHF long position near .9215. I have no set stop in mind at the moment so I’m starting out with a very small position.

  1. I use technicals but I’m definitely not a tech trader. My background is in pure economics but I really only use that as a backdrop as well. I’d consider myself a value trader, I look for shifts which seem to be happening across different markets and then try to logically decide which ccy pair will be most affected. But really the picking of trades is quite irrelevant, you may as well toss a coin, it’s what you do with good n bad trades that’s important.

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