AUD,NZD/USD/JPY

Bank analysts: Bullish notes on JPY crosses

I’m just reading two notes from respected bank analysts and both are suggesting that we may be in for an extended period of improved risk sentiment which should translate into higher JPY crosses. The argument is that the new-look Washington houses will be more willing to compromise and that progress will be made on the ‘fiscal cliff’. Add to this further easy monetary policy which should erode USD value over time except against the Yen and you have a recipe for higher Yen crosses.

Sounds good in theory but lets see what the market thinks over the next few sessions. I’m short AUD/USD and USD/JPY, so basically short of AUD/JPY, which is the exact opposite of what the analysts are saying. I’m feeling much more confident already 🙂

  1. PLUS: on the weekly and monthly chart showed me some serious upward momentum.(including CFTC COT increased short position on JPY). what’s your logic behind this trade? simply contering?) well, I’m new to forex, no offence

  2. Sean, always the contrarian! Have you done an analysis over time of how effective your contrarian trades have been? Me personally, I don’t argue with the charts and the charts are very bullish AUDUSD, and slightly less so AUDJPY. UJ is in a correction, but seems reluctant to drop much.

  3. None taken Frederic. Here’s the 30min chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/VaeOrE1Z/, the pro market is long still and ‘hoping’ for a rise into end-of-year to save their year; and Obama reelection will be trigger to force longs out. Finally, if you’re new to trading, don’t make mistake most others make and think its all about getting trades right. That has about 1% to do with it; it’s what you do with your winning trades which separates winners/losers. Good luck 🙂

  4. Cheers mate, I also followed you on Forexlive earlier this year. I highly appreciate your advices to our young traders as you did on yesterday’s post” If you want to make money trading then you need to learn to maximise profits”. Do have a great day and good luck with your trade

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