AUD/USD: What to expect after jobs data

We are currently trading at 1.0222 about 15 minutes prior to the much anticipated jobs data. My feeling is that the market sentiment towards the AUD is overwhelmingly negative despite the short-covering of the last few days. The market has been talking about a ‘bad’ number and a possible 50bps rate cut next month. In fact much of the recent AUD buying may have been bond related and not due to heavy short-covering, and last nights hedge fund data seemed to back this up.

My preferred way to play this is to see what happens at 1.0180 in the event of a worse-than-expected number, if we cannot break below there then it’s a case of sell-rumour-buy-fact and I’d look to buy for a 100 pip short-covering rally. If the number is positive, I’d look to try and buy any small dips for a test of 1.0310/20 (if this level holds then medium-term shorts can jump back in).

Good luck and don’t put too many eggs in one basket.

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