AUD,NZD/Flows and Orders/Trade Ideas

AUD/USD: Still prefer to sell rallies towards 1.0250

Not much action in anything overnight and the market should stay very quiet until Chinese trade data later today. Dealers say that order books are relatively free of close-by stop-loss orders, another sign that volatility will stay low.

Obviously there will be plenty of speculators looking to sell any rallies back towards previous 1.0220 lows but the fact that the market hasn’t really fallen heavily (plus the big bounce in AUD/NZD) leads me to think that we bears should be a bit more careful in picking our entry levels. Corporate offers are expected to be lowered to around 1.0250 so I would look to sell near there initially.

Bulls have an obvious support level at the March lows near 1.0115 and Sovereign bids are also expected near there.

  1. Entered short yest after the rate call since it was a no-brainer. I’m not sure how to exit this. It didn’t test the 1.0140s let alone the 1.0115 last night. Equity markets probably provided some support??
    Just wondering if you have shorts at the moment and given it didn’t move as we expected what would be your exit or build position strategy? Cheers!

  2. Hi sean – great call again yesterday on the RBA. Is it still your preference to the short rallues to 1.025?

  3. Good evening Sean,

    Thanks Sean for this update. Yesterday morning, we didn’t reach my level at 1.0220, and yesterday evening, I wondered if this level was well suited. You are smarter than me on this topic so I will listen you at 1.0250. Otherwise on USD/CHF, do you agree if I say we have to wait to break 9500 to trade a bit (sideline [9250-9500]) or have you some thoughts ?

  4. Hi MS, sorry sent you an email also with members details, I got confused 🙁 Delete if you don’t need it.
    Yes still like the sell rally play and just gotta see how mkt develops. Don’t like selling too close to support at 10115

  5. Could be worth a quick buy-break play with tight trailing stop, that’s for sure.
    I’ve got an alert in place at 8365 which is where I had hoped to buy but never got there

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