AUD,NZD/FXWW News/Technical Analysis

AUD/USD: Still long but case looking weaker for bulls

  • EUR/AUD put in a strong weekly close above 1.4400 and looks likely to move onto a higher plane between 1.39/1.55 in coming weeks.
  • AUD/JPY is putting in a big battle around 90.00 and whatever happens, this level is becoming pivotal for medium term moves.
  • AUD/NZD has made fresh lows and looks likely to test 1.1500.

If the crosses are bearish, then it will be difficult for the AUD/USD to rally but I’m hanging onto my stubborn longs in hope rather than conviction. The one thing I did do correctly was to buy at the correct level near .9050 and reduce by 1/3rd near .9300 highs, meaning that I can put my stop at my average entry level. This shows once again that the most important think in FX trading is timing the correct entry level, if we get that right then we can even survive really bad calls.

Chinese GDP later today will be closely watched and will guarantee volatility but with Japan closed today, that might be the only moves we see.

  1. Hi Sean,

    Weekly chart of AUDUSD shows a doji candlestick for a first time since it dropped from 1.05. Weekly chart of NZDUSD however makes bullish engulfing pattern. For me they would suggest that AUDUSD could be struggling around the 0.9 level for 1-2 weeks while kiwi is getting bullish. But China data might completely change the stories 🙂

  2. Hi Sean, though it looks kind of bleak now, what do you think of the prospects of aud rebounding to 0.965 levels from here? Almost all current strategists and analysts are forecasting it to go to 0.85 and even 0.8. But I’m really sceptical of all these analysts and strategists forecasts and my view is when you see all these hot air predicting 1 way, usually it will go the other way. But the big macros and specs are all shorting aud even from current levels and expect them to continue on bounces so it looks like aud is really capped from here. But still think big squeeze up will happen. What is your view? Thanks.

  3. I’m hanging in with longs for now Jack, as we know it always looks worst at the lows. BUT the EUR/AUD break above 144 is certainly a worry. I think levels near 90 will prove to be very cheap later this year but that doesn’t mean that we don’t see 8850 or somethg like that. We need to be patient and pick our levels carefully, and be prepared to book profits on rallies, but eventually we will be proved right IMHO

  4. Yes agree Sean. Thanks. Like u said picking the right entry levels is the crux. Just wondering how low will aud go b4 we can safely say the bottom is in place. Any reasonable level in your expert view you think that a bottom can be found? It wil be more than 2000pips down if 0.85 is really reached!

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