AUD,NZD/FXWW News/Trade Ideas

AUD/USD: Speculators selling, and selling, and selling

Prime broker reports show that leveraged accounts were piling into AUD/USD shorts again yesterday with the compelling story of risk-off global sentiment, renewed USD bullishness, falling commodity prices and a sharp Chinese credit squeeze. Based on this back-drop it makes sense to be short AUD/USD.

But don’t forget that these are the same players who were limit long at 1.0500 based on exactly opposing fundamentals.

I had to reduce my long position last night as the risk was becoming a bit high but I will increase again at the slightest hint of a short-term technical bottom forming. I will reduce again below .9150 and accept the market’s wisdom.

  1. Cyprus, Greece, Germany, headlines are starting to ferment, I think EURAUD can pullback near/medium term to 1.33-1.38. Correct me if I am wrong, but unless ‘new’ news comes into play, AUD can take a breather and consolidate or rally to .9650-.98? if we don’t break and hold the lows tonight, I will be starting an Aussie long position .. especially being Thursday night (u.s.).

  2. Hi Sean,
    I’m reading that CME increases margin on Gold and Platinum futures from close of business tomorrow and wondering if some had advance notice which added to today’s moves or more selling to come tomorrow. Also reading about options ‘quadruple witching day’. All in all a nice learning experience watching this all play out tomorrow into the weekend.

  3. Hi Sean, I cut AUD longs on break of 0.9225 as set up suggested further weakness was likely. Looking for other opportunities now. I think I am trying to catch a falling knife on that pair and now will wait for clearer signs that short covering has commenced. Maybe AUDJPY in the interim.

    As I understand it, commodity futures’ margins change when price volatility picks up as a matter of course. Should conditions calm, the margins will again be reduced.

  4. Hi James, think euraud could be key in short term. No point in trading it here buty wait and see what happens tonight and weekly close then we may get some opps Mon or Tues. I’m still running 1/2 my aud/usd longs but looking to trade 9170/9250 prior to w/e and hopefully reduce my risk some more

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