AUD,NZD/Technical Analysis

AUD/USD: Should trade towards 0.9700 over next 5-7 weeks

A quick look at the daily chart shows that the AUD/USD, once it gets started in a certain direction, likes to continue going that way and will only retrace occasionally when it becomes extremely overbought or oversold. ┬áThe obvious target now is the bottom end of the weekly wedge near .9700 and based on recent history, I’d expect us to test that level in around 5 to 7 weeks; so plenty of trading opportunities in there as well.

  1. my god. then probably i rushed in taking long. but surely china is not allowing to do that. your price target does not take into consideration any stimulus from china

  2. Don’t worry Nachiket, I’m quite sure it won’t fall in a straight line and it has already fallen quite a bit. The overall tone of RBA statement has me a bit worried abt China and risk trades in general and I don’t think any of big hedge funds have this risk-off trade on, hence I think EUR/AUD much higher, AUD/USD lower. AUD not bouncing at all so bears in control for now. I’d rather see some evidence of bottom be4 trying long side

  3. Sean,

    I just checked in 16 days, 400 pips have gone. Now you are calling for another 500 pips in 40 days or so. so in 2 months aussie will give 900 pips.

  4. Once again sir you are rite. I think indeed 1.02000 will go and so will 1.0160. but i can’t see why the euro has to rally either

  5. Yur right Nachiket, EUR/USD cud also easily fall in risk-off environment esp with Moody’s looming over Spain and no bailout request due. But mkt is already short and if we get big AUDS unwind due to China slowdown then my view is that EUR/USD stays range bound before higher. So buy-big-dips still my play there

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