AUD,NZD/Technical Analysis

AUD/USD session outlook: Eyeing the top of the weekly wedge

     I’ve been trading this pattern for the last few months and it’s been pretty good to me so no point in stopping now. These wedge patterns are invariably continuation patterns so we should see a move higher eventually once it breaks out. But with the RBA likely to cut rates again next week, selling rallies in the AUD does seem like a sensible strategy. There is also an obvious stop-loss level now above 1.0635; if that breaks then I’ll switch into bullish mode.

On a shorter-term view, recent daily highs at 1.0480 and 1.0510 should prove quite resilient and should cap price moves on the day. Prior highs at 1.0420 provide the first support level.  I’d play this range with a bearish bias.

 

  1. Hello Sean,

    I hope, you had a great week-end. I have thought all the day with your advices. I’m going to sleep, just a quick look to market open. See you in about 7 hours 😉

  2. Good morning Sean and all, hope every one had a nice weekend and good luck for the week ahead.

    Here are my 2 pips:

    Elliot wave counts:

    wave 1: 1.02870 -> 1.0420 / 30
    wave 3: 1.03370 -> 1.0470 / 80

    wave 1 = wave 3

    so expecting wave 5 to extend to atleast 1.618% of wave 3 which could be
    from 1.0420 -> 1.0630 / 50.

    but before that, there is a missing wave 4 !!!!!!

    current resistance levels pointing to 1.0480/500 for wave 4 (retracement )to start when RSI reaches 70+

    Retail sell orders (Onada) piled up at 1.0480/500 as well.

    moral of the story ?

    Sean’s recommended range levels:

    480/500 ->> 420/410

  3. I like to watch and interpret markets in an ongoing auction process as pioneered and typified by that Chicago futures pit legend Peter Steidelmeyer’s Market Profile. On that basis, we have recently worked through a long term buying frenzy which settled the market in the middle of a long term distribution defined by the extremes around USD$1.10 to the upside and USD$0.95 to the downside, with the point of control at USD$1.0380. I was thinking that maybe the next auction would be on the downside, but that appears to be wrong as the move that has started from that region is higher. If this is the case, we are at the early stages of a new up move that will see the old high well and truly eclipsed as the auction plays out in the months ahead. The move higher should now be quite relentless if the view is correct, suggesting a buy dips market. But ICBW, just my latest thoughts.

    Love your work Sean.

  4. Cheers James, I’m still sorta hoping for that one last downside cleanout but I think I’m probably not the only one hoping for that so perhaps it doesn’t happen

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