AUD,NZD/Flows and Orders

AUD/USD session outlook: Choppy sideways trade but selling rallies preferred

USD sentiment seems to be improving and despite all the alarmist headlines relating to the fiscal cliff, nobody really believes that a deal will not be reached (probably later rather than sooner as the major parties try to gain political points). Therefore I expect the USD to strengthen across the board as we near the end of the year and the overall AUD performance against other majors will depend on general risk sentiment.

The daily chart is in a containment phase between 1.0150/1.0600 and we are sitting currently near the middle of this range. Short-term moves will depend on where the stops are, and if AUD/JPY starts breaking higher then we could see the topside targeted first.

In the short-term I would look to buy near 1.0230, sell near 1.0430 and avoid trading in the middle of this range. Medium-term I will stay short and add to position near 1.0550.

  1. This’s a nice plan, your position average is really good 🙂

    One point to discuss, if market expect deal, wouldn’t this be risk on and boost AUD?

  2. It’s been going sideways for ages Mike and might continue to do so. Yeah agree that cliff deal will benefit risk in s/t and that USD/JPY might be better vehicle to be long USD but its just possible that mkt reacts as we don’t expect? Whatever happens, I still prefer shorts until proven wrong

  3. I would expect a slow rise before news come out, consider this trading week is a short week. And eur/jpy is heavy.

    SL around 1.2800 maybe triggered. 1.2850/60 would also be possible when liquidity is thin.

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