AUD/USD outlook for the week ahead: Risk events looming with retail sales, RBA decision and jobs data.
This pair is due for a major move and the trifecta of local risk events allied with international risk events like the China HSBC manufacturing PMI as well as the US NFP must surely be enough to finally get this pair moving. I’m still running a small short position as we are so close to the top of the weekly wedge but I am by no means married to this trade. With reserve managers still supposedly buying dips and with AUD/JPY turning bullish, I think we have to be ready for all possibilities. The topside level to watch imho is 105.50ish, and if we break above there then watch out for impulsive bullish moves. The downside level to watch is 1.0280 and the bears really need to break below there to potentially open the floodgates. In the meantime, trade the edges of this range.