AUD/USD: Long position well and truly obliterated

Another forlorn attempt by me to pick the base in the AUD/USD has come to nothing and the spate of negative events (tumbling iron ore prices, Chinese coal tariffs, dodgy jobs data etc) are all taking their toll on the little Aussie battler. I’m far from a believer in the AUD bear story but it’s best get out of the way whilst they are in charge. The risk-off events affecting the Equity markets have also taken a large toll on AUD/JPY, and many macro long positions have thrown in the towel here also. AUD/JPY does bear (pardon the pun) close watching and the long-term charts suggest to me that a break below 91.00 could lead to another 10 big figure clean-out.

There is a hugely important technical support level in AUD/USD at .8650 and if we break below this level, there will be bull-blood on the streets.

  1. Hi Sean,

    Thanks for your comments. Are you already out of your position or will you watch and get out on monday. I am also holding an aud long from 88.25 wondering what to do.

  2. I think both aud and cad will continue weakening against the dollar given the prevailing fundamentals. I also think Dollar will continue rallying after the brief fall after FOMC

  3. Hi Yasser, I got stopped out on Friday night. I’m wrong on the AUD, pure and simple. The reversal in AUD/JPY has also caught me by surprise. This may well be the bottom but I don’t have the stomach for this fight 🙁

  4. Hi Sean, what are your views on euraud? Seems like a bullish IHNS is forming with a neckline break very nearby at around 14585. Am wary of euro weakness on the whole but euraud has instead rebounded quite a bit due to the recent aud decline. Do you think it will move up further back to 1.50s from the still declining aud sentiment, or will euro resume its steep decline and put the pair back towards 142 in a 142-146 consolidation mode perhaps? Thanks.

  5. I prefer to sell this pair Ray, purely based on central bank policies. I think the bearish AUD sentiment is overdone but I’ve been getting my timing pretty badly wrong recently so we may get more of same? Safest way to play the EUR/AUD is to sell any decent 200 pip rallies imho

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